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Nathan Jones speculation - Cawley says indications are no chance Jones going to Cardiff (p20)

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  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict
    scabbyhorse said:

    I’ve just lumped a monkey on Jones to Cardiff at 6/1. Kerching!


    Well at least you didn't take the 1/2 like so many others have clearly done. Or not as the case may be.
  • FishCostaFortune
    FishCostaFortune
    edited June 2
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    You seem to be desperate for this to happen . What more does it take other than him to come back from his holiday and hold a press conference to say he's not leaving , for you to get that he's not going to Cardiff?
    Yep, I am desperate for something to happen that will negatively impact my club.

    A lifelong running gag. 
    Then calm down and stop flapping. chill , he's going nowhere. 

    No one is flapping. This is the Nathan Jones speculation thread, there was Nathan Jones speculation, I shared my thoughts on it. That's it. 
    I think the problem is that is just what it was - speculation. As is the way with the internet someone speculated about something, then someone else said something based on that speculation and it all snowballed to where it is now where people seem to feel like it it may be true or need reassurance that it is not.

    The real likelihood is that Jones was never going to go.

    Sadly the age of the internet has effectively eroded peoples concept of truth, fact and critical thinking.

  • FishCostaFortune
    FishCostaFortune
    TheFXguy said:
    < 700 comments does NOT qualify as a meltdown on CL I am afraid. 
    Wonder how many comments we would muster if we resigned Bonne after the transfer deadline day like last time.
  • Braziliance
    Braziliance
    edited June 2
    Croydon said:
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    You seem to be desperate for this to happen . What more does it take other than him to come back from his holiday and hold a press conference to say he's not leaving , for you to get that he's not going to Cardiff?
    Yep, I am desperate for something to happen that will negatively impact my club.

    A lifelong running gag. 
    Then calm down and stop flapping. chill , he's going nowhere. 

    No one is flapping. This is the Nathan Jones speculation thread, there was Nathan Jones speculation, I shared my thoughts on it. That's it. 
    But it's almost as if you're so keen to convince yourself and others that he's going, that you're ignoring anything anyone says to the contrary.
    Wasn't keen at all. I just thought it was a bit naive for anyone to say with confidence that it won't happen without knowing the ins and outs. I fully grasped it would be a backwards step, but, he has said he couldn't turn it down, with a lot of conviction as well. He has a reputation for leaving, so I was preparing for the worst.

    I wasn't ignoring what people said cause anyone who was sharing their thoughts on him had the same thoughts as me, I was just a bit more concerned about the noise coming from the Cardiff side.

    End of the day mate, it's a Charlton talking point, and I like talking about Charlton. Good or bad.

    I genuinely can't wait for next season and didn't want anyone else managing us for it 👍🏻
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  • Off_it
    Off_it
    Addick Addict said:
    shine166 said:
    Red_Chester said:
    carly burn said:
    1/2 Now with most bookies.
    Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp
    Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?  
    Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.

    I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him. 

    Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.
    You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money. 

    If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict
    PaddyP17 said:
    Why are people getting so panicked by odds? When I knew Lee Bowyer was lasting the 10 games as "caretaker" til end of season and thus the bet on him as next perm CAFC manager would come in, I put on 30 quid, my mate 40, and his 16/1 odds went in to 4/6 literally minutes later.

    It takes basically nothing to move a L1/Championship next manager market. The bookies adjust markets based on betting patterns and these markets are minuscule.
    Probably because they don't understand bookmaking? The shorter the odds, the more certain it is to the public, the more they are allowed to put on, the more they feel they have to put on to get a return. That's three candidates now that they have had trading at 2/5, 1/2 and 6/4 and if you can keep laying at those odds it really is a licence to print money. There comes a time, of course, when one of those will be correct but the bookies will have closed their books, in all probability, before any such announcement and they will have already layed at least two or three candidates at odds on by the time that happens. 

    What bookies do need is "credible" names that they can trade around - the last England manager market had Carsley, Howe, Guardiola, Potter, Klopp, Pochettino all trading at various short prices before Tuchel got it. 
  • TheFXguy
    TheFXguy
    edited June 2
    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    Croydon said:
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    You seem to be desperate for this to happen . What more does it take other than him to come back from his holiday and hold a press conference to say he's not leaving , for you to get that he's not going to Cardiff?
    Yep, I am desperate for something to happen that will negatively impact my club.

    A lifelong running gag. 
    Then calm down and stop flapping. chill , he's going nowhere. 

    No one is flapping. This is the Nathan Jones speculation thread, there was Nathan Jones speculation, I shared my thoughts on it. That's it. 
    But it's almost as if you're so keen to convince yourself and others that he's going, that you're ignoring anything anyone says to the contrary.
    Wasn't keen at all. I just thought it was a bit naive for anyone to say with confidence that it won't happen without knowing the ins and outs. I fully grasped it would be a backwards step, but, he has said he couldn't turn it down, with a lot of conviction as well. He has a reputation for leaving, so I was preparing for the worst.

    I wasn't ignoring what people said cause anyone who was sharing their thoughts on him had the same thoughts as me, I was just a bit more concerned about the noise coming from the Cardiff side.

    End of the day mate, it's a Charlton talking point, and I like talking about Charlton. Good or bad.

    I genuinely can't wait for next season and didn't want anyone else managing us for it 👍🏻
    A lot has been made of Jones’ past comments but he also said this which seems to be being overlooked.


    He said over 100 words to suggest that there was nothing to say. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc
    Rock Spectacle said:
    Anyone ever met a poor bookie...
    Especially when the robbing bastards take your money at 1/2 eh
  • Braziliance
    Braziliance
    edited June 2
    scabbyhorse said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Other source? You mean the one who is about as reliable as a ashtray on a motorcycle?
    BBC Sport Wales. 

    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Not quite the same. 
    It's the same in the sense that the only thing in life for sure is that nothing is for sure. We were told he would be our next manager within hours he wasn't. Chris Wilder then said himself he was going to sign until they came in. 

    "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" Tan might read the backlash/disappointment and think he needs to try and pay up. Jones may ponder it today and change his mind.

    I'll celebrate when they appoint someone or Jones/the club assure us. The Cardiff noise sounded too confident for my liking.
    What noise? Some of their fans on social media?

    A questionable journalist hinted that Jones may be their first choice and the whole thing blew up, there was literally nothing else to suggest that A) The club had been approached, B ) Any talks had taken place and C) He even was their number 1 target.

    The very reputable Rich Cawley who has a 95%+ SR on all things Charlton has said it's not happening, short of the club coming out and saying it (Which they won't, especially if it was all nonsense) that's a good as it's going to get. 

    It wasn't just some of their fans. It was journalists with followings. Of course their fans ran with it, but only because they had a source.

    A) we may have been approached, none of us know right now if we did, or didn't B ) we also don't know the answer to that without knowing the answer to A and C) We don't, but that's what was heavily suggested, hence the thread. Why else do you think Cawley posted what he did? 

    I appreciate Cawleys tweet. 
  • Off_it
    Off_it
    PaddyP17 said:
    Off_it said:
    Addick Addict said:
    shine166 said:
    Red_Chester said:
    carly burn said:
    1/2 Now with most bookies.
    Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp
    Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?  
    Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.

    I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him. 

    Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.
    You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money. 

    If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.
    AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw
    Well if that's the case then it makes the comment even stranger, doesn't it? Unless he was trying to explain the obvious to those who can't grasp it, I guess? That would probably make sense.

    In which case I'll offer you 2/1 he doesn't succeed!
    ;-)

  • TheFXguy
    TheFXguy
    edited June 2
    Braziliance said:
    scabbyhorse said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Other source? You mean the one who is about as reliable as a ashtray on a motorcycle?
    BBC Sport Wales. 

    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Not quite the same. 
    It's the same in the sense that the only thing in life for sure is that nothing is for sure. We were told he would be our next manager within hours he wasn't. Chris Wilder then said himself he was going to sign until they came in. 

    "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" Tan might read the backlash/disappointment and think he needs to try and pay up. Jones may ponder it today and change his mind.

    I'll celebrate when they appoint someone or Jones/the club assure us. The Cardiff noise sounded too confident for my liking.
    What noise? Some of their fans on social media?

    A questionable journalist hinted that Jones may be their first choice and the whole thing blew up, there was literally nothing else to suggest that A) The club had been approached, B ) Any talks had taken place and C) He even was their number 1 target.

    The very reputable Rich Cawley who has a 95%+ SR on all things Charlton has said it's not happening, short of the club coming out and saying it (Which they won't, especially if it was all nonsense) that's a good as it's going to get. 

    It wasn't just some of their fans. It was journalists with followings. Of course their fans ran with it, but only because they had a source.

    A) we may have been approached, none of us know right now if we did, or didn't B ) we also don't know the answer to that without knowing the answer to A and C) We don't, but that's what was heavily suggested, hence the thread. Why else do you think Cawley posted what he did? 

    I appreciate Cawleys tweet. 
    Seems to me that Cardiff could do with some 'special source' like our Cawley
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  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc
    Braziliance said:
    scabbyhorse said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Other source? You mean the one who is about as reliable as a ashtray on a motorcycle?
    BBC Sport Wales. 

    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    Belv said:
    Braziliance said:
    https://x.com/DarrenOWitcoop/status/1929472434840756597?t=yRXxUDbgb3j5jPnTujZZLg&s=19

    Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.

    Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.

    Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change. 
    Not quite the same. 
    It's the same in the sense that the only thing in life for sure is that nothing is for sure. We were told he would be our next manager within hours he wasn't. Chris Wilder then said himself he was going to sign until they came in. 

    "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" Tan might read the backlash/disappointment and think he needs to try and pay up. Jones may ponder it today and change his mind.

    I'll celebrate when they appoint someone or Jones/the club assure us. The Cardiff noise sounded too confident for my liking.
    What noise? Some of their fans on social media?

    A questionable journalist hinted that Jones may be their first choice and the whole thing blew up, there was literally nothing else to suggest that A) The club had been approached, B ) Any talks had taken place and C) He even was their number 1 target.

    The very reputable Rich Cawley who has a 95%+ SR on all things Charlton has said it's not happening, short of the club coming out and saying it (Which they won't, especially if it was all nonsense) that's a good as it's going to get. 

    It wasn't just some of their fans. It was journalists with followings. Of course their fans ran with it, but only because they had a source.

    A) we may have been approached, none of us know right now if we did, or didn't B ) we also don't know the answer to that without knowing the answer to A and C) We don't, but that's what was heavily suggested, hence the thread. Why else do you think Cawley posted what he did? 

    I appreciate Cawleys tweet. 
    The Welsh intern that ran that story with only that one Cardiff shit stirrer as their source should get a slap on the wrist.
  • gmantaxi
    gmantaxi
    You think this is bad , wait till the new kit comes out….
  • Foxycafc
    Foxycafc
    I really don't think this thread serves any purpose but to cause a few arguments, he's staying, I reckon we should leave it now.
  • Carter
    Carter
    If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

    I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 
  • Leuth
    Leuth
    Carter said:
    If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

    I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 
    There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that we sign players who don't fancy NJ's style imo
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro
    Carter said:
    If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

    I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 
    With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

  • ProperCharlton
    ProperCharlton
    Foxycafc said:
    I really don't think this thread serves any purpose but to cause a few arguments, he's staying, I reckon we should leave it now.
    Let them argue IMO, it gives me something to read instead of doing actual work.
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