Things are moving back in a upward direction, the cold water shock of what Trump is up to has subsided a bit. I had clocked at first the European and UK stuff holding up really well against the US stocks however that has redressed itself and the US investments are up as well as the NASDAQ rising 8% from when I caught that particular knife.
I saw loads of hyperbolic news about what Trump did and the disaster it was, how much people had lost and tons of people talking on the 212 forums about cutting and running from stocks full stop let alone US ones but much less now a bit of oil has been poured on the water. I don’t say this as any defence of Trump, I don't like him or the cocksuckers who surround him but its interesting the news outlets must see their box office as "hammer trump = get clicks" which is their right to do, it just means finding anything objective is really difficult. Bit like one of the post match threads on here after a home defeat ;-)
It's nothing about "hammering trump" but simply about what is news worthy. When there is a sharp decline or a major shock to the markets it's on the news. Media outlets like to announce a "slump" or a "crash" like it's the end of the world. What they never report is the aftermath. The fact is markets will recover, sometimes within weeks, sometimes within months....but they do recover. The S&P losing 8% in one day is news worthy. It then rising 1% the next is not.
I always tell my clients this. They will hear about the big crashes, but they wont hear about the gradual gains that over time bring the markets back to where they were. I've worked in the industry since 1985 and been tough many a "crisis". The stockmarket ended 1987 higher than it started it, even though we saw a 20% decline in one week following the October hurricane. When lockdown was announced in March 2020 markets fell 25% in 2 weeks. They were back up again at the start of 2021.
The media like bad news. Doesn't matter whether its beacuse of Trump, Truss, Goldman Sachs or the UK leaving the ERM.
I'm back to where i was at the end of February, but with a maniac over there it's easy come easy go. With hindsight I should have sold a week or so earlier but i bought back around the right time.
Well my new best friend Claude makes me right ( I’m talking about an S&P500 ETF I bought on Feb 19, on the H-L platform, which is traded jn GBP.) Claude says:
I'll search for the S&P 500 performance and GBP/USD exchange rate movements since February 19, 2025.
Based on my search, I can now provide a more detailed explanation of the factors contributing to your -12% loss on your S&P 500 ETF since February 19, 2025:
**Stock Market Performance Factor (-9%)**
The S&P 500 entered bear territory on an intraday basis, falling as much as 21.35% from its February 19, 2025 high of 6,147.43 to a low of 4,835.04 on April 7, 2025. By the end of April, the S&P 500 had posted three consecutive monthly declines: -1.42% in February, -5.75% in March, and -0.76% in April, resulting in a year-to-date decline of -5.31% through April. Since your purchase date coincides exactly with the market peak on February 19, you would have experienced the full impact of this decline, which accounts for most of your loss.
**Currency Exchange Factor (-3%)**
The GBP/USD exchange rate has strengthened significantly since mid-February, rising from around 1.26-1.27 to as high as 1.3435 USD per GBP by April 28, 2025. Specifically, the exchange rate moved from approximately 1.26 in mid-February to over 1.34 by late April 2025, representing about a 6-7% strengthening of the pound against the dollar.
When the pound strengthens against the dollar, your dollar-denominated assets (S&P 500 stocks) lose value when converted back to pounds. This currency effect would have contributed approximately 3% to your overall loss.
**Combined Effect**
The combined effect of the market decline (-9%) and the currency movement (-3%) explains your total loss of approximately 12%.
This is a classic example of how currency fluctuations can 😀either amplify or mitigate investment returns for international investors. In this case, the strengthening pound magnified your losses from the market decline.
That's exactly what Rob is saying isn't it? That the pound strengthening is bad. The dollar strengthening is good. Having reread your post, I think we are actually all saying the same thing!
Yes all saying the same thing!!
I don't think we are. What you wrote was "....although could do with the dollar coming back down a bit." I'm talking about my mistake in buying even a small amount of a US focused but £ denominated ETF in February. My ETF now is about 12% down from then, of which 3% is the result of dollar devaluation since I bought it; and if the dollar goes down more, as you want, it will further devalue my holding there. No?
As I said earlier, by ‘coming BACK down a bit’ for me means at the moment it’s $1.32 to the £ I’d rather it was back near $1.20, ie coming back down. I think your ‘goes down more’ you mean the opposite which yes of course if the dollar went to $1.5 to the £ your holding would worsen in £ value..
Ok, I got there finally 🤣thanks to @IdleHans for pointing out that "weakening" is the right word to describe what the dollar has been and continues to do, unfortunately for us.
Things are moving back in a upward direction, the cold water shock of what Trump is up to has subsided a bit. I had clocked at first the European and UK stuff holding up really well against the US stocks however that has redressed itself and the US investments are up as well as the NASDAQ rising 8% from when I caught that particular knife.
I saw loads of hyperbolic news about what Trump did and the disaster it was, how much people had lost and tons of people talking on the 212 forums about cutting and running from stocks full stop let alone US ones but much less now a bit of oil has been poured on the water. I don’t say this as any defence of Trump, I don't like him or the cocksuckers who surround him but its interesting the news outlets must see their box office as "hammer trump = get clicks" which is their right to do, it just means finding anything objective is really difficult. Bit like one of the post match threads on here after a home defeat ;-)
It's nothing about "hammering trump" but simply about what is news worthy. When there is a sharp decline or a major shock to the markets it's on the news. Media outlets like to announce a "slump" or a "crash" like it's the end of the world. What they never report is the aftermath. The fact is markets will recover, sometimes within weeks, sometimes within months....but they do recover. The S&P losing 8% in one day is news worthy. It then rising 1% the next is not.
I always tell my clients this. They will hear about the big crashes, but they wont hear about the gradual gains that over time bring the markets back to where they were. I've worked in the industry since 1985 and been tough many a "crisis". The stockmarket ended 1987 higher than it started it, even though we saw a 20% decline in one week following the October hurricane. When lockdown was announced in March 2020 markets fell 25% in 2 weeks. They were back up again at the start of 2021.
The media like bad news. Doesn't matter whether its beacuse of Trump, Truss, Goldman Sachs or the UK leaving the ERM.
Main stream media will always report upon big events and bad news, especially if that affects large numbers of people. S&P has climbed again and US has done a thin deal with UK, but what happens when the 90 days are up?
What's certain is that all forecasts of the S&P for end 2025 are down from a few months back... and that nobody quite knows where this is going. Similarly the FTSE, European indices and Japan are up.
Most amateur and pension investors don't have the time nor expertise to make calls every day / week, let alone be permanently shifting funds around. So the question is what balance to establish geographically and bonds vs equities? And when to invest any lump sum. In other words how to spread risk and where can we expect a gentle return over the years until we retire.
At the same time we might want to look at a defensive strategy if we believe that a trade war will break out between US and China. That scenario looks a possible scenario, as neither side is likely to back down. When one adds US$ depreciation to the mix, it looks sound to me to trim US exposure as a result of this erratic policy making.
Things are moving back in a upward direction, the cold water shock of what Trump is up to has subsided a bit. I had clocked at first the European and UK stuff holding up really well against the US stocks however that has redressed itself and the US investments are up as well as the NASDAQ rising 8% from when I caught that particular knife.
I saw loads of hyperbolic news about what Trump did and the disaster it was, how much people had lost and tons of people talking on the 212 forums about cutting and running from stocks full stop let alone US ones but much less now a bit of oil has been poured on the water. I don’t say this as any defence of Trump, I don't like him or the cocksuckers who surround him but its interesting the news outlets must see their box office as "hammer trump = get clicks" which is their right to do, it just means finding anything objective is really difficult. Bit like one of the post match threads on here after a home defeat ;-)
It's nothing about "hammering trump" but simply about what is news worthy. When there is a sharp decline or a major shock to the markets it's on the news. Media outlets like to announce a "slump" or a "crash" like it's the end of the world. What they never report is the aftermath. The fact is markets will recover, sometimes within weeks, sometimes within months....but they do recover. The S&P losing 8% in one day is news worthy. It then rising 1% the next is not.
I always tell my clients this. They will hear about the big crashes, but they wont hear about the gradual gains that over time bring the markets back to where they were. I've worked in the industry since 1985 and been tough many a "crisis". The stockmarket ended 1987 higher than it started it, even though we saw a 20% decline in one week following the October hurricane. When lockdown was announced in March 2020 markets fell 25% in 2 weeks. They were back up again at the start of 2021.
The media like bad news. Doesn't matter whether its beacuse of Trump, Truss, Goldman Sachs or the UK leaving the ERM.
Main stream media will always report upon big events and bad news, especially if that affects large numbers of people. S&P has climbed again and US has done a thin deal with UK, but what happens when the 90 days are up?
What's certain is that all forecasts of the S&P for end 2025 are down from a few months back... and that nobody quite knows where this is going. Similarly the FTSE, European indices and Japan are up.
Most amateur and pension investors don't have the time nor expertise to make calls every day / week, let alone be permanently shifting funds around. So the question is what balance to establish geographically and bonds vs equities? And when to invest any lump sum. In other words how to spread risk and where can we expect a gentle return over the years until we retire.
At the same time we might want to look at a defensive strategy if we believe that a trade war will break out between US and China. That scenario looks a possible scenario, as neither side is likely to back down. When one adds US$ depreciation to the mix, it looks sound to me to trim US exposure as a result of this erratic policy making.
I think the profits created by s&p 500 companies come mainly from cheap labour and cheap raw materials, mostly obtained from outside the USA.
With tariffs, these profits will be reduced quite a bit, and unlike Trump, I don't think they can be made up with profits from greater efficiency or better technology.
So I won't get out of my s&p 500 or Nasdaq funds, but I won't be buying any more for a while.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
For those who are comparing their current portfolio with many months ago, don't forget to consider your additional cash injection (ie. £20k in Isa around April).
For those who are comparing their current portfolio with many months ago, don't forget to consider your additional cash injection (ie. £20k in Isa around April).
My overall percentage is higher even with the injection in April.
I sold out my USA funds a bit later than i should have given my unease after the sharp uptick at the back end of last year and the unpredictability of the orange one. I need to have more faith in my hunches. I've enough exposure to the US through global funds anyway, but I've bought FT and European funds for a bit more stability. Not quite at Prague's stage of life but equally now I've packed in work, I cant afford to be too cavalier, and the stress of a market fall is something i can well do without. If I want stress, I'll watch the playoffs, thank you.
For those who are comparing their current portfolio with many months ago, don't forget to consider your additional cash injection (ie. £20k in Isa around April).
My overall percentage is higher even with the injection in April.
Me to (My private SIPP I pay in £300 a month with tax relief).
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Global trackers are still down about 5% from their Jan/Feb peak. Active global funds (the usual culprits) seem to be around 6-10%. Maybe you've nicely weighted the portfolio with Europe and UK?
Global trackers are still down about 5% from their Jan/Feb peak. Active global funds (the usual culprits) seem to be around 6-10%. Maybe you've nicely weighted the portfolio with Europe and UK?
Also sold during the drop and bought them back at a far lower rate. I'm still very exposed to the next American drop, but who isn't?
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Global trackers are still down about 5% from their Jan/Feb peak. Active global funds (the usual culprits) seem to be around 6-10%. Maybe you've nicely weighted the portfolio with Europe and UK?
I sold to all cash before the dip. Still holding half in cash, rest I bought back in at various points of the dip which for a while was showing a loss, but back up and above now. Also bought some individual shares, but those all sold now.
mine are all in ETF’s now. About 30% US, 50% Uk rest JAPAN, Europe etc.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Which MMF are you looking at out of curiousity?
I've got holdings in Legal & General Cash. Premier Miton UK Money Market and abdn Sterling Money Market. And the beauty of them at this time is there isn't a gnat's tooth worth of difference in performance between them and they are all among the cheapest funds in terms of fees (although of course HL take their nibble). No brainer in my position.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Chase currently offering variable 4.55% Bonus Rate for six months (already taking into account the most recent cut in interest rate). Investec (my favourite) still offering 4.64% AER on 90 day notice, which in reality is fixed for a rolling 90 days as any changes to rates are with 95 days' notice.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Which MMF are you looking at out of curiousity?
I've got holdings in Legal & General Cash. Premier Miton UK Money Market and abdn Sterling Money Market. And the beauty of them at this time is there isn't a gnat's tooth worth of difference in performance between them and they are all among the cheapest funds in terms of fees (although of course HL take their nibble). No brainer in my position.
I use Fidelity Cash Fund (GB00BD1RHT82), but end up paying platform AND fund fees.
With Fidelity, fees are much, much lower for ETFs, but they don't seem to have a money market ETF.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Chase currently offering variable 4.55% Bonus Rate for six months (already taking into account the most recent cut in interest rate). Investec (my favourite) still offering 4.64% AER on 90 day notice, which in reality is fixed for a rolling 90 days as any changes to rates are with 95 days' notice.
Atom pay 4.75% if you don’t withdraw in the month, although expect that to reduce post BoE reduction.
I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.
Chase currently offering variable 4.55% Bonus Rate for six months (already taking into account the most recent cut in interest rate). Investec (my favourite) still offering 4.64% AER on 90 day notice, which in reality is fixed for a rolling 90 days as any changes to rates are with 95 days' notice.
Atom pay 4.75% if you don’t withdraw in the month, although expect that to reduce post BoE reduction.
Yes, I use Atom also - expect that to drop to 4.5% very soon!
Comments
I always tell my clients this. They will hear about the big crashes, but they wont hear about the gradual gains that over time bring the markets back to where they were. I've worked in the industry since 1985 and been tough many a "crisis". The stockmarket ended 1987 higher than it started it, even though we saw a 20% decline in one week following the October hurricane. When lockdown was announced in March 2020 markets fell 25% in 2 weeks. They were back up again at the start of 2021.
The media like bad news. Doesn't matter whether its beacuse of Trump, Truss, Goldman Sachs or the UK leaving the ERM.
What's certain is that all forecasts of the S&P for end 2025 are down from a few months back... and that nobody quite knows where this is going. Similarly the FTSE, European indices and Japan are up.
Most amateur and pension investors don't have the time nor expertise to make calls every day / week, let alone be permanently shifting funds around. So the question is what balance to establish geographically and bonds vs equities? And when to invest any lump sum. In other words how to spread risk and where can we expect a gentle return over the years until we retire.
At the same time we might want to look at a defensive strategy if we believe that a trade war will break out between US and China. That scenario looks a possible scenario, as neither side is likely to back down. When one adds US$ depreciation to the mix, it looks sound to me to trim US exposure as a result of this erratic policy making.
I've now recovered 2 thirds back from my Jan/Feb peak Vs my April trough.
mine are all in ETF’s now. About 30% US, 50% Uk rest JAPAN, Europe etc.
Chase currently offering variable 4.55% Bonus Rate for six months (already taking into account the most recent cut in interest rate). Investec (my favourite) still offering 4.64% AER on 90 day notice, which in reality is fixed for a rolling 90 days as any changes to rates are with 95 days' notice.
With Fidelity, fees are much, much lower for ETFs, but they don't seem to have a money market ETF.
Yes, I use Atom also - expect that to drop to 4.5% very soon!