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Savings and Investments thread
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FT article on the US market compared to Europe.
https://www.ft.com/content/2e8109e6-d56b-4c3f-824d-2933eaff12420 -
The article is locked to non subscribers.Friend Or Defoe said:FT article on the US market compared to Europe.
https://www.ft.com/content/2e8109e6-d56b-4c3f-824d-2933eaff12420 -
Some excerpts:Covered End said:
The article is locked to non subscribers.Friend Or Defoe said:FT article on the US market compared to Europe.
https://www.ft.com/content/2e8109e6-d56b-4c3f-824d-2933eaff1242
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Investors now worry that his much-vaunted policy of trade tariffs will hurt domestic growth. Meanwhile, the US’s foreign policy has galvanised Europe’s politicians into promising a defence spending boom that has lifted the region’s assets....
European stock indices have outstripped Wall Street over the past six months. The S&P 500 is up a little over 4 per cent, behind 5 per cent for the UK’s FTSE 100, 10 per cent for France’s Cac 40 and more than 20 per cent for Germany’s Dax. The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 has jumped 8.5 per cent.
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“We have gone from ‘all roads lead to the US’ to seeing numerous cracks to US exceptionalism,” said Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation at Société Générale. “At the same time we have seen several game changers in Europe . . . so Europe is back on the agenda.”
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Eight years after his first presidential election victory initially sent investors rushing for havens before they bet he would be a boon for stocks, many fund managers are again wondering how they got Trump so wrong.
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Meanwhile, hopes of stronger European growth have prompted traders to rein in their bets on lower rates, with just one or two European Central Bank cuts now expected, after the cut made on Thursday. That is one fewer than a week ago.
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“The good news of lower taxes and deregulation was factored in quickly,” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management. But it was “hard to factor in the bad news” of tariffs, deportations and the hit to growth from the government’s efficiency drive before they started to happen, he added.
And Most Recommended from the comments section (which I often find as interesting and illuminating as the article)
"Everything Trump touches dies. I feel sorry for my American friends who didn’t vote for the fascist, but having Trump, a guy who even managed to bankrupt his own casinos, in power for four years will not end well for the US."2 -
The "Trump Trade" status in a graph (S&P500m opening down another 1.5% today).
I don't like the smell of all this, at all.
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I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.
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I would just like to add a touch of realism about it all. Yes, the S&P500 is down almost 2% this afternoon and since the turn of the year is down about 4%. Mostly down to Trump and his tariffs, which I believe will be short lived. Canada a standing up to him & we've already seen him row back on tariffs with Mexico. Storm in a tea cup is my view. My advice is still to hang on in there. Maybe take a bit of profit from your US holdings as they have risen quite a bit over the past 3 years compared to other world stockmarkets and now may need rebalancing. But the question then is where to put this money ? The UK ? Europe ? Or sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle ? Big gamble imo. But then what do I know......I'm not great in the FTSE100 competition 😃IdleHans said:I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.4 -
I have just one US equity holding and it is Procter&Gamble. Right now it is up by the same amount that the S&P 500 is down. It is put in the category of "Consumer staple". But I buy it because I know its products, I know that they are tested to be superior in performance to competitors and nearly everyone I know who worked there in marketing is top quality because P&G trained them to be so. everywhere in the world. It remains the gold standard of proper marketing, as opposed to TikTok bollocks. But you don't get much, if any, P&G, if you buy a passive US equity fund. You get more of a crap American car company that is for some reason put into the "tech" category. This was my point about Nvidia last week. The passive tracker funds led the way in automating trades, more and more money goes to those funds, who in turn pile more money into the tech stocks - and not the likes of P&G. This problem is not just US or tech by the way. Buy a European equity tracker or even a general managed growth fund now and you will own a chunk of Novo Nordisk. I bought NN 3 years ago (when y'all certainly had not heard of it😉) before they came out with the weight loss results. I'm holding, but I don't want any more. This problem is much worse than 3-5 years ago. It makes equity markets more volatile than they need be, and explains how the US Big 7 performance influences every other major market.IdleHans said:I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.
In the course of composing this post, the S&P has dropped another 0.5%, while P&G is up another 0.5%. It would be hilarious if we didn't all have our hard-earned invested in this shitshow.0 -
I completely agree, Golfie, but I'm rubbish at the competition too. I just think the trump sh1tshow has more time to run, though if he is finally persuaded to see sense and back away from tariffs the drops could reverse very quickly. I'm happy to step away from a 10% (or whatever) fall before going cautiously back in.golfaddick said:
I would just like to add a touch of realism about it all. Yes, the S&P500 is down almost 2% this afternoon and since the turn of the year is down about 4%. Mostly down to Trump and his tariffs, which I believe will be short lived. Canada a standing up to him & we've already seen him row back on tariffs with Mexico. Storm in a tea cup is my view. My advice is still to hang on in there. Maybe take a bit of profit from your US holdings as they have risen quite a bit over the past 3 years compared to other world stockmarkets and now may need rebalancing. But the question then is where to put this money ? The UK ? Europe ? Or sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle ? Big gamble imo. But then what do I know......I'm not great in the FTSE100 competition 😃IdleHans said:I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.
Edit: the s&p is down over 9% from its peak in Feb.
I have time to keep on top of this stuff so can react quickly if it looks like things will move up sharply. I think they will, but pennies take a looooong time to drop in trump's head.
As to where to put free funds in the meantime, I'm sitting on the side getting interest at reasonable rates with no risk.2 -
Anyone investing in US funds should look out for ones with "value" in the name. These funds usually invest far less in tech stocks and more in consumer staples & banks. Should give more of a balance to your portfolio and will currently be on the rise rather than dropping like a stone.PragueAddick said:
I have just one US equity holding and it is Procter&Gamble. Right now it is up by the same amount that the S&P 500 is down. It is put in the category of "Consumer staple". But I buy it because I know its products, I know that they are tested to be superior in performance to competitors and nearly everyone I know who worked there in marketing is top quality because P&G trained them to be so. everywhere in the world. It remains the gold standard of proper marketing, as opposed to TikTok bollocks. But you don't get much, if any, P&G, if you buy a passive US equity fund. You get more of a crap American car company that is for some reason put into the "tech" category. This was my point about Nvidia last week. The passive tracker funds led the way in automating trades, more and more money goes to those funds, who in turn pile more money into the tech stocks - and not the likes of P&G. This problem is not just US or tech by the way. Buy a European equity tracker or even a general managed growth fund now and you will own a chunk of Novo Nordisk. I bought NN 3 years ago (when y'all certainly had not heard of it😉) before they came out with the weight loss results. I'm holding, but I don't want any more. This problem is much worse than 3-5 years ago. It makes equity markets more volatile than they need be, and explains how the US Big 7 performance influences every other major market.IdleHans said:I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.
In the course of composing this post, the S&P has dropped another 0.5%, while P&G is up another 0.5%. It would be hilarious if we didn't all have our hard-earned invested in this shitshow.1 -
I’m switching pensions so have been in mostly cash for about 4 weeks, happy days!0
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I've done the same, although moving a bit to Europe helped it seems America is taking most of my funds down with it! I'll keep an eye on it and move it back when the times right. Trading 212 has no commission to do this and the cash isa has a decent rate.IdleHans said:
I completely agree, Golfie, but I'm rubbish at the competition too. I just think the trump sh1tshow has more time to run, though if he is finally persuaded to see sense and back away from tariffs the drops could reverse very quickly. I'm happy to step away from a 10% (or whatever) fall before going cautiously back in.golfaddick said:
I would just like to add a touch of realism about it all. Yes, the S&P500 is down almost 2% this afternoon and since the turn of the year is down about 4%. Mostly down to Trump and his tariffs, which I believe will be short lived. Canada a standing up to him & we've already seen him row back on tariffs with Mexico. Storm in a tea cup is my view. My advice is still to hang on in there. Maybe take a bit of profit from your US holdings as they have risen quite a bit over the past 3 years compared to other world stockmarkets and now may need rebalancing. But the question then is where to put this money ? The UK ? Europe ? Or sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle ? Big gamble imo. But then what do I know......I'm not great in the FTSE100 competition 😃IdleHans said:I've sold out of my Vanguard US equity fund, slightly later than i should have done but it's a relief to be out. Dumped Amazon and Google several days ago, and they've continued to fall since. I take the received wisdom about riding out ups and downs, but when a sustained drop is on the cards thanks to the idiot in chief, why hang on? There's a some pleasure in abandoning the US.
Edit: the s&p is down over 9% from its peak in Feb.
I have time to keep on top of this stuff so can react quickly if it looks like things will move up sharply. I think they will, but pennies take a looooong time to drop in trump's head.
As to where to put free funds in the meantime, I'm sitting on the side getting interest at reasonable rates with no risk.
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I did buy a handful of Aviva A 8.75% pref shares about a year ago as a bit of solidity/diversification. They've done fine, yielding about 6.4% on the £1.36 I paid, but have jumped almost 11p today to £1.50 in line with the proposal from Aviva to buy them all back and cancel them. I'm pretty sure this will get passed, so now I'm looking for something similar in order to repeat the buy back exercise from whoever is next.
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My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time
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Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.
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Hard to predict anything at present with the lunatic policies being pursued in the US.golfaddick said:
Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.2 -
Comparing him to covid seems reasonable.3
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Initially surprised to see the main US indices falling harder than the Nasdaq now. Then I read that the Stable Genius has now whacked an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium....hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
Hard to predict anything at present with the lunatic policies being pursued in the US.golfaddick said:
Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.2 -
And all this going on is the reason why it is bonkers that Rachel from accounts wants to force people to invest their ISA money into a stocks and shares ISA and limit the amount that can be put into a cash ISA (supposedly).3
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The Chancellor wont be forcing anyone to do anything. IF there are any changes to ISA limits in 2 weeks time (remember there is no budget on the 26th, just a Spring statement) then people have the choice to keep their savings in other (taxable) deposit accounts. If people dont want to pay tax on their savings then there are other places to put their money that could be just as tax efficient. Yes, this might be stockmarket based but there are products & funds that can be risk managed.Fortune 82nd Minute said:And all this going on is the reason why it is bonkers that Rachel from accounts wants to force people to invest their ISA money into a stocks and shares ISA and limit the amount that can be put into a cash ISA (supposedly).2 -
I think he just thought he could impose tariffs without any retaliation and it's taken him by surprise. I'm not sure if he is just plain stupid or is trying to sabotage the US economy on purpose?PragueAddick said:
Initially surprised to see the main US indices falling harder than the Nasdaq now. Then I read that the Stable Genius has now whacked an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium....hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
Hard to predict anything at present with the lunatic policies being pursued in the US.golfaddick said:
Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.0 - Sponsored links:
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There's a conspiracy theory that he wants to crash it to buy cheap, which is ludicrous as he'll gain more from a booming economy. I think it's as simple as he's not fit to run a country.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
I think he just thought he could impose tariffs without any retaliation and it's taken him by surprise. I'm not sure if he is just plain stupid or is trying to sabotage the US economy on purpose?PragueAddick said:
Initially surprised to see the main US indices falling harder than the Nasdaq now. Then I read that the Stable Genius has now whacked an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium....hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
Hard to predict anything at present with the lunatic policies being pursued in the US.golfaddick said:
Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.
I'm with Golfie on this being a short drop, he'll eventually u turn.2 -
Well he has to find a way to do that without, in his own estimation, looking weak. And I am not sure how easy that will be, so he may do even more stupid things.Friend Or Defoe said:
There's a conspiracy theory that he wants to crash it to buy cheap, which is ludicrous as he'll gain more from a booming economy. I think it's as simple as he's not fit to run a country.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
I think he just thought he could impose tariffs without any retaliation and it's taken him by surprise. I'm not sure if he is just plain stupid or is trying to sabotage the US economy on purpose?PragueAddick said:
Initially surprised to see the main US indices falling harder than the Nasdaq now. Then I read that the Stable Genius has now whacked an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium....hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
Hard to predict anything at present with the lunatic policies being pursued in the US.golfaddick said:
Markets continue to fall.Carter said:My C*nt list stock is doing well
I've seen an uptick in defence companies. Tech, US tech has taken the brunt of the fall. And out of my funds the previously high flying US stuff, well I'm still in profit but the profit isn't anywhere near as exciting as it was. I've chucked the winnings from the last 2 months PB on the nasdaq. I don't think that can go lower than it was last night so bought at what was hopefully a rock bottom price and I intend to sit on that for a while. Good thing with trading 212 is you can choose to trade in US hours as well as London time.
FTSE100 down 1% at lunch and falling even further now the US has opened. Now down 1.35%
Dow down 1.25%
S&P down 0.9%
Nasdaq down 0.65%.
Sorry to say trying to time the markets is a mugs game. My almost 40 years experience says it's best to try and see it out. Look at 5 years ago. At the start of the year the FTSE was around 7500 points. Then in March when lockdown happen it fell to 5370. By Aug is was back to 7000 points and at the end of the year back to where it started the year at 7500.
I'm with Golfie on this being a short drop, he'll eventually u turn.3 -
I'm sure Americans didnt think that "making America great again" meant rising inflation, rising interest rates & then a recession.
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Could cross out everything from the word that onwards.0
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He's risking the economy of the US, the developed world, and more importantly my investments, in order to get some movements on some petty issues with his neighbours. Hope that rebound comes quickly...
Tariffs are almost always a bad thing, unless it's the EU putting them in of course!0 -
So Wednesday afternoon. In the last 24 hours the US markets had two bits of good news that should have allowed for a more optimistic view
- last night Trump once again backed down on a Canada tariff, after Ontario backed down one.
- a CPI monthly inflation index came in with inflation down more than most analysts predicted. Ought to be good, allowing Fed to reduce interest rates and for "animal spirits" (FFS) to flourish.
- throw in, if you like the optimistic noises around war in Ukraine
Result?S&P 500 flat (-0.27%)
Solid as a rock P&G down 2,5%.
I continue not to like the smell of this one little bit.0 -
My SIPP is back to the level it started the year. It's just like the last 2 and a bit months never happened. Which in CAFC terms would mean we are 11th and 6 points off the play offs.
Boooooo.2 -
golfaddick said:My SIPP is back to the level it started the year. It's just like the last 2 and a bit months never happened. Which in CAFC terms would mean we are 11th and 6 points off the play offs.
Boooooo.
Similar, I'm up about 2.5% but only as I'm now in cash whilst waiting on a transfer so had missed the last couple of weeks shenanigans.0 -
I must say, Trump is doing absolute wonders for the credit card debt I have with Canadian banks. May the Canadian Dollar continue to be worthless.1
