Grand National 2021

Way too short  trip on decent ground for Magic Of Light, getting badly outpaced a mile or so out but reassuringly, according to Richard Hoiles, she "flew up the hill".
So long as she's OK, a perfectly acceptable prep to blow the cobwebs away for the main event in 22 days time, for which the bits and pieces of 25s now all gone and she's 20s across the board.
Still my model's #1 rated selection on Good to Soft.
Roll on Aintree.

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

The next declaration stage is Tuesday. I hope we will see the field reduced down to about 50 and it will be good if they don't delay announcing it like they did at the last stage. Peanuts do you think Minellacelebration will get in? 

No worries. All with OR 148 are in the current top 40 so he’s guaranteed a run.
Like Cloth Cap he will want a sound surface (Good to Soft Aintree-style fine).
Forecast is currently for changeable weather during GN week. Still likely to be GS I’d say but not 100% certain and this year the going will make a meaningful difference to selections.
Will post my model’s final but alternative top ratings (for GS and for Soft) after Tuesday’s Forfeit Stage.
COYR.

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

The next declaration stage is Tuesday. I hope we will see the field reduced down to about 50 and it will be good if they don't delay announcing it like they did at the last stage. Peanuts do you think Minellacelebration will get in? 

No worries. All with OR 148 are in the current top 40 so he’s guaranteed a run.

I'm a bit concerned because he is still available at 159/1 on the exchanges, that often suggests someone knows something. He hasn't run since January 9th and he hasn't been entered in any races before Aintree. So it will be 105 days since his last run. Far from ideal.

yeah, sorry about that. I took all the 200+ 
He’s been at wild prices for ages and the fact he’s unfancied on the exchanges means just that. Haven’t seen anyone tip him and don’t expect to. That’s part of the reason I use a stat model - to identify value, hopefully. 
The model’s not a crystal ball and he may flop but it picked out Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009 and Vics Canvas (80/1 3rd in 2016) so, despite the inevitable failures as well, I’m happy to stick with my system and have him on my (Good to Soft) team (each way, naturally).
Also, don’t worry about no run since 9 Jan (it’ll be 91 days actually). That’s only a week longer than One For Arthur when he won in 2017 and State Of Play made the frame twice in a GN without a run all season.
Minellacelebration has been laid out for the race (like Kimberlite Candy and others) and has a good record fresh - won 4 of last 5 when coming back from 50+ day break (shortest was 111 days in fact).
I assume all’s well. Last time I saw a report from his yard (when weights were unveiled) all systems were go. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/KatyPriceRacing/status/1361679057621024770

BTW there was a piece of Festival form of interest this week re Minellacelebration 
When he won back in October at Aintree (Mildmay course) and set a career high RPR154, among those he beat were:
Vieux Lion Rouge (romped the Becher next time out)
Perfect Candidate (won next time out) and
Vintage Clouds (won the Ultima on Tuesday, albeit off 6lb lower mark), though Vintage Clouds does seem to get the heeby-jeebies when he visits Aintree.

Ok Folks,

I was going to wait until after Tuesday’s next Forfeit stage to post this but warbles are already audible from the plus-size person who identifies as female, who’s waiting in the wings.

Cheltenham’s done and dusted, preps run, so time to go nap on selections for the GN on Saturday fortnight, though as usual the going will dictate final preferences.

Sharply conflicting forecasts currently from the Met (mainly dry) and Accuweather (wet end to March and rain on each day of the GN meeting - importantly, 5mm and grey skies on the day itself), so could be a late decision on final team-sheet.

Below are my model’s top-rated selections for either Good to Soft (= safe but essentially Good ground in Aintree speak these days) or Soft (or worse). There are overlaps but some significant differences.

First a quick recap and perennial caveat about my GN stat-model.

For the first time, I’m using a database that is based purely on the GNs since the post-2012 course changes – slicing and dicing the stats for all 276 runners in those 7 GNs and looking for the statistically-meaningful traits that distinguish the 7 winners, 6 near-missers (<5L) and as many as possible of the 35 making the first 5 home from the also-rans in these “new-normal” GNs.

The new model has 2 stages, employing for the first-time an initial elimination screen:

1.       As explained earlier, a 10-factor Screentest, with an extra test for alternative going. This establishes a “long-list”, comprising runners with a maximum of 3 fails.

For reference, in back-testing the model against the 7 GNs 2013~19, all but 4 of the 35 that finished 1~5 failed 0~2 tests. All 7 winners and all but 1 (Pleasant Co. – 2 fails) of the 6 near-missers failed 0 or 1 test.

2.       The short-list is then derived by looking for the presence of any of 4 relatively uncommon, positive traits (+) - the distilled “best fit” essence of former models, though now employing only the 2013~19 GNs as the database. They are:

·         Have handled the GN fences well (either over 26f or in a GN as a 7yo or meeting misfortune) but remain potentially unexposed at the GN trip.

·         Lightly-weighted, with a chase RPR at 26f+ achieved within the last 2 years at least 9lb higher than their GNOR.

·         High strike rate in chases, either all season-long at 3m+ or specifically in the Spring.

·         Pedigree indicates potential GN success, either fitting the modern-GN damsire profile or having a GN winner or exceptional stayer in their family (<5 generations).

On back-testing, all 13 winners and near-missers had at least 1 of these positive traits (Auroras Encore and Tiger Roll in 2019 had +++, One For Arthur ++). All but 4 of the 35 frame-makers in the 7 GNs since 2013 had at least 1 positive trait.

So, that’s the 2021 model.

Please remember …….. no model is a crystal ball. Since I first used a trend-following system for the 2006 GN, it’s always been and always will be “work-in progress” so please don’t bet what you cannot afford to lose. This could be the year the model truly crashes and burns.

I also strongly advise betting Non Runner No Bet to be on the safe side. Some are definitely ground-dependent, others may head to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday instead.

The top-rated 2021 selections:

 

If GOOD TO SOFT:

Top 4:

·         MAGIC OF LIGHT (1+) (backed at 33/1 – now 20s)

·         DISCORAMA (2+) (40/1)

·         CLOTH CAP (2+) (20/1 – now 11/2)

·         MINELLACELEBRATION (2+) (100/1 – now 80s)

Next Best 4:

·         KIMBERLITE CANDY (3+) (40/1 – now 16s)

·         MINELLA TIMES (3+) (40/1 – now 16s) 

·         ALPHA DES OBEAUX (3+) (80/1 – now 66s) 

·         AGUSTA GOLD (3+) (50/1) 

Best-value potential Outliers:

·         Acapella Bourgeois (33/1) – irrespective of going [.......don't know why he's come out in red font - means nowt]

·         Give Me A Copper (66/1) – needs decent ground

 

If SOFT:

Top 5:

·         KIMBERLITE CANDY (2++)

·         LORD DU MESNIL (3+++ [3rd fail is very borderline]) (backed NRNB at 50/1 – now 28s) 

·         DISCORAMA (2+)

·         YALA ENKI (2+) (NRNB at 33/1 – still 33s) 

·         MAGIC OF LIGHT (2+)

Next Best:

·         AGUSTA GOLD (3+) 

 

Will post write ups on each selection shortly.

PS There is just one more caveat to this - that the top of the card does not cut up and cause a material hike in weights.
Easysland was scratched (unsurprisingly) today. That leaves Bristol De Mai (stated target the GN but nothing's certain until declarations) and Santini (ran a stinker in the GC and must be in some doubt to line up now) as top weights and next down The Storyteller (now 11.08) and Chris's Dream (11.07), neither of whom can be regarded as certain to line up, especially if they were the newly promoted topweight. Nor if the ground dries out can Yala Enki (11.03).
It may be highly unlikely but, if the worst came to the worst, we could see a 7 or 9lb rise in weights, which could put the cat among the pigeons in the market.
Hopefully not.

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

I hope they announce the declarations quicker than the last stage. This really needs to be done a lot earlier. It is crazy to still have over a hundred horses so close to the race.

There's a way to go yet @RobinKeepsBobbin
After today's forfeit stage, there's a Confirmation stage on the Monday before the race. Declarations are on the Thursday before the race, when the top 40 in the GN Official Ratings remaining "make the cut", the absolute weights are finally set and the 4 reserves are set (the next highest in GNOR, which come in if any of the top 40 are scratched up to Friday lunchtime).
However it's almost inconceivable that anything with a GNOR below 140 will make the cut, regardless of how many come out today.
Taking the average rate of attrition of entries over the last 10 years, the cut is likely to come in the OR142s. Even taking the highest rate of attrition would suggest a cut in the OR140s.
Never say never but, on that basis, even before today's scratchings, you can effectively put a line through Fitzhenry at #71 on 139 and everything below him.

If I win Euromillions tonight, seeing as how CAFC no longer needs rescuing, I'm bidding for Alpha Des Obeaux at the Goffs sale tomorrow   
Anyone fancy a fetlock?

Easysland, Bellshill and Articulum had already come out and I think Storm Control is also scratched. 
Oh well, so much for the skinny that, having moved to Willie Mullins, Agusta Gold was targeted at Aintree. One off my "next best" list. Thankfully I'd backed her NRNB.

"50:50" to quote Frank Berry and the ATR report:

A decision may be imminent on Minella Times’ big-race target this spring – with a choice of Grand Nationals still to be made.

Henry de Bromhead’s improving chaser has attracted market support into 16-1 with Coral for next month’s Randox Grand National, after punters discerned that he is Rachael Blackmore’s most likely ride at Aintree.

Blackmore’s brilliant Cheltenham Festival performance – as top rider at last week’s meeting with six victories, including the Champion Hurdle – has inevitably increased interest in her plans for the Aintree showpiece, which has never yet been won by a female jockey.

Minella Times retains an alternative entry in the Boylesports Irish Grand National, which will be run on Easter Monday – just five days before the equivalent at Liverpool.

The eight-year-old’s target could become clearer on Wednesday – when there is another forfeit stage for the Fairyhouse race – but Frank Berry, racing manager for owner JP McManus, has stressed discussions are ongoing.

“He’s in the Irish National as well – we’ll make a decision on that in the morning,” he said.

“It’ll be whether he stays in the Irish National, or comes out tomorrow.

“It’s very much up in the air at the minute. Today, it’s 50-50 – we’ll decide in the morning whether he stays in or comes out.”

Revert to Plan A
Accuweather's changed its forecast - now wet up to 5 April, then dry and sunny intervals, warming up through to GN day.
Good to Soft still odds on.

Minella Times scratched from the Irish GN, along with all the big names also with Aintree entries, though disconcertingly from my perspective Discorama remains with entries in both.
Looks like the Aintree gamble on King Henry & Queen Rachel of Cheltenham is on and, with or without HRH on board, it definitely has the stat-profile to run a huge race on a decent surface, though he's place rather than win material in my book.
John Nallen and the Minella Hotel crew will be partying all year if another of their finds scoops another big one.
But imagine the wavy-lined mouths on punters and journos if it's Katy Price's rank outsider Minellacelebration 

PolzeathNick said:

Coming round to the idea that younger horses the ones to focus on. To that end how do Mister Malarky and Farclas come out on your model @PeanutsMolloy?

Latter is one I'm more interested in. Feel that Gigg know they've got something for this to abandon Tiger Roll. Stamina big question mark but has a strangely similar profile to Tiger.

Hi @PolzeathNick
Mister Malarky - probably OK weights-wise IMO and an interesting GN flavour to his pedigree (Dubacilla obviously his grand-dam, 4th in a GN, but also related to dear old Just So, close 2nd to Miinnehoma in the mud in 1994).
Good modern-GN dam-sire profile with Teenoso but no Wild Risk anywhere is his pedigree, which I look for particularly on the dam-side, as it's been common to all 13 winners and near-missers since 2013. Might be thought a co-incidence but there's a reason why Wild Risk's genotype is particularly synergistic with (ubiquitous) descendants of Nearco.
He fails other GN stat tests that I now use - poor hurdle rating and not a particularly encouraging record in his 5 runs beyond 24f.
In total 4 fails of my Screentest and also, though he ran well in the hullabaloo of GN day in 2019, I'm not sure I'd feel confident knowing which Mister Malarky will turn up. 
Not for me to be honest but his family is an interesting one from a GN perspective.
Farclas is another interesting 7 yo. The form of December's Paddy Power hdcp is looking pretty decent, with his close 2nd last week making a total of 5 wins or near-misses from 8 runs subsequently by the first 6 home. As an aside, that bolsters my interest in Minella Times.
Indeed resonant of Tiger with the Triumph on his CV and I agree with you both about youngsters in the GN and that the O'Leary's feel they have another card up their sleeve for Aintree (and have long fancied signing off Tiger's career with an Irish GN if poss) - though I think JP holds a better hand this year, as the market indicates.
Weight looks good (2lbs well in now), 7yo is a minus but at least he's in his 2nd season chasing. Good strike rate as regards making the frame over fences, including in the spring, but as you say the trip is the big unknown, with just has that good 3rd in December his only outing at 3m. Gilgamboa's chase record was very similar prior to his 4th in the 2016 GN (4th in the PP hdcp beforehand) so it's not a no-no as an e/w proposition but a win at 26f+ or solid form at further is still pretty much a stat-prerequisite for coming home in front in a GN.
Pedigree-wise he has Wild Risk on his damside and his 1~3 dam-sires have produced Group 1 winners on the flat, though notably typically at <10f.
All in all he actually fails 5 of my Screentests but I think that under-rates his potential to ran a very nice race, if he takes to the fences.  
I hope my musings help but please feel free to ignore them. Your instinct is usually spot on.