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Grand National 2021
Comments
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If you could get a decent spread of each way betting on the exchanges I wouldn't place a bet with a bookmaker again. The better offers/perks are vastly interior to a few years ago, even more modest perks like Best Odds Guaranteed are now severely limited and as soon as you take a decent win or two you're outta there.1
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But surely anyone would take the best value. I wouldn't take 6/1 if i can get 7/1 elsewhere.cafcfan1990 said:
It’s taking value that leads to restrictions and/or removal of bonuses. Some decisions are still bewildering but I do understand why a lot of them are made.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
Bookies want mug punters who bet with them whatever. Someone using oddschecker for the best price knows what they are doing, taking value and risk winning. I rarely, if ever defend bookmakers but they don’t want customers winning bets, they fail if so.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
But surely anyone would take the best value. I wouldn't take 6/1 if i can get 7/1 elsewhere.cafcfan1990 said:
It’s taking value that leads to restrictions and/or removal of bonuses. Some decisions are still bewildering but I do understand why a lot of them are made.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
But that way of doing business only has a limited lifespan. They are giving themselves a bad name. Eventually there will be no customers left to restrict. They will all be on Betfair.cafcfan1990 said:
Bookies want mug punters who bet with them whatever. Someone using oddschecker for the best price knows what they are doing, taking value and risk winning. I rarely, if ever defend bookmakers but they don’t want customers winning bets, they fail if so.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
But surely anyone would take the best value. I wouldn't take 6/1 if i can get 7/1 elsewhere.cafcfan1990 said:
It’s taking value that leads to restrictions and/or removal of bonuses. Some decisions are still bewildering but I do understand why a lot of them are made.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
Not if they don't restrict the losers, and those who don't take the value and bet with them whatever.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
But that way of doing business only has a limited lifespan. They are giving themselves a bad name. Eventually there will be no customers left to restrict. They will all be on Betfair.cafcfan1990 said:
Bookies want mug punters who bet with them whatever. Someone using oddschecker for the best price knows what they are doing, taking value and risk winning. I rarely, if ever defend bookmakers but they don’t want customers winning bets, they fail if so.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
But surely anyone would take the best value. I wouldn't take 6/1 if i can get 7/1 elsewhere.cafcfan1990 said:
It’s taking value that leads to restrictions and/or removal of bonuses. Some decisions are still bewildering but I do understand why a lot of them are made.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
If you regularly back horses that shorten you will be restricted or have your account closed, even if they lose.1
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It's a crazy way to run a business. I'm banned from about twelve bookies. I won over £3,000 from Skybet but i'm down a few hundred on the others. Racebets banned me from promotions before i got the welcome e-mail. I think someone needs to do a dispatches style documentary to expose them.1
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Bookies will be fine because there are far more losing punters than winning ones.0
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It’s not that crazy though because the people they want to bet with them do. Look at their profit numbers, it’s not harming them.RobinKeepsBobbin said:It's a crazy way to run a business. I'm banned from about twelve bookies. I won over £3,000 from Skybet but i'm down a few hundred on the others. Racebets banned me from promotions before i got the welcome e-mail. I think someone needs to do a dispatches style documentary to expose them.Agree on Racebets, I managed one bet but got the same email 45 mins after signing up.1 -
The virtual Grand National will be shown on Friday April 9 at 8pm on ITV4 and repeated on ITV at 1pm on Saturday, April 10. It will also be available on the ITV Hub.
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Interesting (depending on one's view of what emanates from the mouths of the O'Learys) comments from Edward about Tiger Roll.
As suspected (I thought this prior to him being officially scratched from Aintree), the Irish GN is a definite aim.
"Tiger Roll is 11. He’ll talk to us but we won’t be rushing retirement with him. He’ll have an entry in the Irish National and we might go somewhere else. We might even run him in the Becher [at Aintree next season], we’re not sure. The English handicapper told us he needs to run somewhere to be dropped, so he could run in that. We’ll see.
“Tiger needs to get by Cheltenham first. If he runs badly at Cheltenham, that'll be it, but we'll listen to the horse rather than any of the outside nonsense. Touch wood, he’s going to have a long and happy retirement, though with Tiger, even out in the field, he's not happy. Even in the summer with the sun on the back, he’s not happy. He prefers to be in training. That’s when he’s happiest. He loves that job. We're not going to be forced into retirement.”
"The Irish Grand National is very likely. We'll see what way the Irish handicapper weights him.....”
Strongly suspect there will be a meeting of minds between the O'Learys and the Irish handicapper but whether he's in the mix at the business end at Cheltenham we'll see.0 -
Does he speak with an Irish accent?1
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to be sure, and they're having a lot of trouble getting him fit.....Addickted said:Does he speak with an Irish accent?
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Surely the beer should be Guinness?
With the Pizza, is there a horse called Maddison running?1 -
I think he will be retired.0
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Will be keeping a close eye on SATURNAS (50/1 NRNB for the GN) in the 3m Leinster National on Sunday, for which he's got a strong chance.
Would make himself a GN e/w contender (likely carrying the minimum 10 stone) on the stats if he goes well, though the catch is that Willie may opt for the Irish GN rather than gamble on making the cut at Aintree. By my reckoning, a win on Sunday would put Saturnas at or near the top of those rated 142 and likely to make the line up but, with a strong hand already for Aintree, Willie may take the sure opportunity of Fairyhouse.
Why is a 10 year old, yet to win beyond 17f and untried beyond 25f, of interest?
Allowing for his 2 seasons off, despite his age he effectively fits the typical profile of unexposed 2nd season chasers that have gone well in a GN.- Stayed on strongly in a highly competitive Kerry National in 2018 on Soft (just-held 2nd behind Snow Falcon), off his current OR142. That was his first try at 3m but he was then off the track for 815 days until returning in December, culminating in a creditable, not-stopping 4th (12.5L) in January's Thyestes.
- His pedigree is particularly interesting, with stamina in the family - a Prix Du Cadran winner and, notably, Balthazar King (XC star and close 2nd in the 2014 GN).
- Has speed, being a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at 2m and, significantly, ticks an important component of the damside profile for success in a modern GN - each of his 1st, 2nd and 3rd damsires both siring and dam-siring Group 1 winners at 10f+.
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No surprise that Gigginstown are again looking to offload 2 of their GN entries to the highest bidder - Alpha Des Obeaux and Balko Des Flos
They’re joined by Ballyoptic in the Goffs sale on 24 March.
I am a believer in free markets but the now-perennial auctioning of GN entries IMHO demeans the race.
Got a 144+ rated horse on the downgrade or surplus to requirements? Make an entry in the GN and cash in, or more precisely cash out.
The sooner Gigginstown complete their supposed wind down of racing operations the better.5 -
The one good thing about this week festival is we won't see O'Leary's face.PeanutsMolloy said:No surprise that Gigginstown are again looking to offload 2 of their GN entries to the highest bidder - Alpha Des Obeaux and Balko Des Flos
They’re joined by Ballyoptic in the Goffs sale on 24 March.
I am a believer in free markets but the now-perennial auctioning of GN entries IMHO demeans the race.
Got a 144+ rated horse on the downgrade or surplus to requirements? Make an entry in the GN and cash in, or more precisely cash out.
The sooner Gigginstown complete their supposed wind down of racing operations the better.2 -
Any Second Now cruised to victory in a 2m Grade 2 chase this afternoon. Understandably cut to 12/1 clear 2nd fav behind Cloth Cap.
The win meaningfully improved his stats but he retains 3 fails of my 2013-2019 GN Screentest, though one is borderline.
He does have a positive, being related to Gilgamboa (himself one of the 4 stat-outliers for my system as a 16L 4th in the 2016 GN) but, otherwise, doesn't have the damside profile typical of all post-2012 GN winners/near-missers.
This GN is shaping up to have relatively few with "nailed on" stat-profiles according to my model (0 or 1 fails), so there could be an outlier scorer but there are several ahead of him on my stat-ratings (2 fails & similar or stronger positives).
Obviously a threat, if he takes to the fences, but won’t be on my team.0 -
I don't think Any second now has the stamina to win a National1
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Ted Walsh (with a GN win on his training CV) is adamant he’ll get the trip.RobinKeepsBobbin said:I don't think Any second now has the stamina to win a National
However, I happen to share your doubts and his 3rd test fail (albeit borderline) is regarding stamina.
He’ll no doubt now be well-in on paper but, despite 6 chases at 3m+, his 3 best runs (including today’s) have all been at shorter (2 best at 2m). Similar story over hurdles.
He won the Kim Muir convincingly 2 years ago, staying on up the hill, but the fact that only 1 of the next 4 home that day has won since casts a little doubt over the quality of that race. RP rated it 154 and he races off 152 on 10 April (another test fail).
Could be prominent for a long way but I figure minor places at best.
Probably a massive foot in mouth assessment
PS Will be intrigued to see the market reaction if Saturnas scores (4/1 to do so) today at Naas. The further he's run, the better his RPRs and his pedigree is more in tune with a modern GN than Any Second Now's (50/1 vs 12/1).
Identical best 3m+ RPRs but would carry 9lbs less than Ted’s boy if he lines up at Aintree. Needs to run well tomorrow and for Willie to make the right call.
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PeanutsMolloy said:
Ted Walsh (with a GN win on his training CV) is adamant he’ll get the trip.RobinKeepsBobbin said:I don't think Any second now has the stamina to win a National
Paul Nicholls was sure Silviniaco Conti would get the distance when everyone else in the world said he wouldn't.
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Saturnas bombed (jumped very poorly) in the Leinster Nat.
He's a better chaser than that but another one that fails to progress from team Possibles to team Probables.
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Peanuts... Have you got a list of Grand National horses running at Cheltenham? I noticed Pym and Milan Native are both in the 2.30 on Tuesday.0
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As regards declared runners on Tues and Wed:RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... Have you got a list of Grand National horses running at Cheltenham? I noticed Pym and Milan Native are both in the 2.30 on Tuesday.
OK Corral as well in the Ultima tomorrow. None of the 3 in this can make enough of an improvement in their stat profiles to figure at Aintree, according to my model at least.
Wednesday's X-Country has a few: Easysland (though I very much doubt he'll line up at Aintree given his handicap mark), Alpha des Obeaux, Balko Des Flos, Hogans Height, Potters Corner, Some Neck. A chance for some of these to materially upgrade their GN stat-profile.
Quite a few across the cards on Thursday and Friday but we're waiting on decs for these.
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Scratch Potters Corner - a non runner in tomorrow’s XC
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Potters Corner's trainer Christian Williams reports:
“He’s just got a slight over-reach and a little bit of inflammation in one of his legs.
“In a race as competitive as this, you just can’t run if there’s even a slight doubt. He’ll probably need two or three days of antibiotics, but it’s only minor.
“We’ll go straight to Aintree, it’s a minor thing but you don’t want to take a chance in a race of this nature. It’s disappointing for the yard, the staff and the owners.”
Won't make my team for the biggie.
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Big shame. Not what you want 3 weeks before a GN. He'll be 12 next Spring so missing last year due to Covid and potentially being stunted this year with an injury and all of a sudden a very good horse for an unfashionable stable has lost its prime 2 seasons for a shot at the GN.PeanutsMolloy said:Potters Corner's trainer Christian Williams reports:
“He’s just got a slight over-reach and a little bit of inflammation in one of his legs.
“In a race as competitive as this, you just can’t run if there’s even a slight doubt. He’ll probably need two or three days of antibiotics, but it’s only minor.
“We’ll go straight to Aintree, it’s a minor thing but you don’t want to take a chance in a race of this nature. It’s disappointing for the yard, the staff and the owners.”
Won't make my team for the biggie.
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Magic of Light is entered in the 4.15 at Cheltenham on Friday. A good performance will see the price crash.
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20f a bit on the sharp side for her. Safe spin will do nicely for the main event.RobinKeepsBobbin said:Magic of Light is entered in the 4.15 at Cheltenham on Friday. A good performance will see the price crash.
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