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Grand National 2021
Comments
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I was sadly on The Conditional too, my only two ante post plays. Kimberlite Candy still bugging me with no decision in sight.PeanutsMolloy said:
Nice one @killer kish - I remember you were on to him early. Got a sub yet for sadly departed The Conditional?killer kish said:
Think I jinxed Cool Mix Peanuts..... Very happy with my 25/1 Cloth Cap nowPeanutsMolloy said:
Sadly taken out on vet's advice.killer kish said:Cool Mix also a strong jockey/trainer combo on yearly stats at the meeting...... Good luck Peanuts
But what an impressive win, making every yard, by Cloth Cap.
Will surely be put up a fair amount in the handicap come Tuesday and be meaningfully well in on 10 April.
Now cut to 8/1 (top price) for the GN. Thankfully took him antepost at 20s a while back, cos he's sure now to fit the stats-bill on a decent surface.
That said - the long range weather forecast from Accuweather for Liverpool is wet all week ahead of the big day.0 -
killer kish said:
I was sadly on The Conditional too, my only two ante post plays. Kimberlite Candy still bugging me with no decision in sight.PeanutsMolloy said:
Nice one @killer kish - I remember you were on to him early. Got a sub yet for sadly departed The Conditional?killer kish said:
Think I jinxed Cool Mix Peanuts..... Very happy with my 25/1 Cloth Cap nowPeanutsMolloy said:
Sadly taken out on vet's advice.killer kish said:Cool Mix also a strong jockey/trainer combo on yearly stats at the meeting...... Good luck Peanuts
But what an impressive win, making every yard, by Cloth Cap.
Will surely be put up a fair amount in the handicap come Tuesday and be meaningfully well in on 10 April.
Now cut to 8/1 (top price) for the GN. Thankfully took him antepost at 20s a while back, cos he's sure now to fit the stats-bill on a decent surface.
That said - the long range weather forecast from Accuweather for Liverpool is wet all week ahead of the big day.I wasn't on The Conditional but recall he was one of your two with CC. Crushing loss for Bridgey.
Kimberlite's a tricky one - he goes well fresh but his stats would be helped by a prep.
He's had 3 entries in the last few weeks (incl. in the Kelso race today) but been scratched each time. Tom Lacey himself said recently that he recognises the value of match practice for the GN, so maybe a quiet hurdle somewhere soon, if the ground doesn't dry out too much.
If he does go straight to Aintree, he'll still have the stats to be in the reckoning, particularly if he gets his preferred soft ground, but he'll be trying to do what Clan Royal came so close but failed to do in 2004, when he should have won - jockey dropped his whip a few fences from home and he ended up wandering about after the last and got caught on the line by Amberleigh House.Clan Royal had had just one run that season, like KC, in the Becher Chase (132 days prior to Aintree). There have been a couple go close after long breaks (Mely Moss hadn't run for a year before just getting edged out by Papillon in 2000) but the fact is that no horse has won the GN with more than an 84 day break for at least 34 years.
Still plenty of wheels in motion and that ground will be crucial for a number.
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A great win for Cloth Cap but he jumped left a few times. If he does that in a bigger field he could find trouble.1
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8s all gone for Cloth Cap - generally 6/1 now.
He's obviously a very worthy favourite and he does have the stats to be in business on decent ground and will be on my team.
HOWEVER, he doesn't have a flawless stat-profile and there is one small fact that no one but a sad statto would pay any attention to - and maybe it's nothing.
While his damside pedigree is excellent for a GN - Old Vic his damsire (a Group 1 winner and dam-sire of a Group 1 winner and sire of 2 GN winners), Wild Risk present and related to Amberleigh House - his sire is Beneficial and the 5 sons of Beneficial who've run 7 times between them in GNs (5 of them after the course changes and on 2 occasions as 16/1 shots) have a poor record in the race.- Becauseicouldntsee (3 runs, 2011-13) - F (16/1) F PU
- Vesper Bell (2014) - 13th 69L
- More Of That (2017) - PU (16/1)
- Mala Beach (2019) - PU
- Livelovelaugh (2019) - 11th 33L
But a sire typically imparts temperament, among other traits, to its offspring and it's just possible that Beneficial's progeny may have a slight soft spot when encountering the mayhem of a GN.
Even if so, a limited or non-existent crowd at the preliminaries and being a front runner should help of course but it's just a tiny concern (on my part at least) for such a short-priced favourite, given that he'll be debuting over the fences in April.
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He did indeed @RobinKeepsBobbin and, though going left is better than right at Aintree, it could land him in trouble if he doesn't get a good pozzy.RobinKeepsBobbin said:A great win for Cloth Cap but he jumped left a few times. If he does that in a bigger field he could find trouble.
To be fair, Kelso is a funny, twisty track - maybe it was just that.
As a front runner, I imagine Tom Scu's first goal will be to line up on the rail (if he can!), which would help keep him straight, though if he stays there it would mean taking Bechers at its highest point.
As I posted just now, I do have a small concern as to whether he'll take to the peculiarities of the race and fences and be able to repeat his forceful, fence-attacking style we saw in the Ladbroke Trophy and today.
We'll see.1 -
Cloth Cap is VERY impressive
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At least initially, RP rates Cloth Cap’s win today 8lbs better (RPR160) than his Ladbroke Trophy romp.
Have to wait until Tuesday for the handicapper’s verdict but surely likely to get a similar hike in future mark and correspondingly “well in” for the GN.
Great job Jonjo.0 -
Clan Royal remember that bet and National well!!!PeanutsMolloy said:killer kish said:
I was sadly on The Conditional too, my only two ante post plays. Kimberlite Candy still bugging me with no decision in sight.PeanutsMolloy said:
Nice one @killer kish - I remember you were on to him early. Got a sub yet for sadly departed The Conditional?killer kish said:
Think I jinxed Cool Mix Peanuts..... Very happy with my 25/1 Cloth Cap nowPeanutsMolloy said:
Sadly taken out on vet's advice.killer kish said:Cool Mix also a strong jockey/trainer combo on yearly stats at the meeting...... Good luck Peanuts
But what an impressive win, making every yard, by Cloth Cap.
Will surely be put up a fair amount in the handicap come Tuesday and be meaningfully well in on 10 April.
Now cut to 8/1 (top price) for the GN. Thankfully took him antepost at 20s a while back, cos he's sure now to fit the stats-bill on a decent surface.
That said - the long range weather forecast from Accuweather for Liverpool is wet all week ahead of the big day.I wasn't on The Conditional but recall he was one of your two with CC. Crushing loss for Bridgey.
Kimberlite's a tricky one - he goes well fresh but his stats would be helped by a prep.
He's had 3 entries in the last few weeks (incl. in the Kelso race today) but been scratched each time. Tom Lacey himself said recently that he recognises the value of match practice for the GN, so maybe a quiet hurdle somewhere soon, if the ground doesn't dry out too much.
If he does go straight to Aintree, he'll still have the stats to be in the reckoning, particularly if he gets his preferred soft ground, but he'll be trying to do what Clan Royal came so close but failed to do in 2004, when he should have won - jockey dropped his whip a few fences from home and he ended up wandering about after the last and got caught on the line by Amberleigh House.Clan Royal had had just one run that season, like KC, in the Becher Chase (132 days prior to Aintree). There have been a couple go close after long breaks (Mely Moss hadn't run for a year before just getting edged out by Papillon in 2000) but the fact is that no horse has won the GN with more than an 84 day break for at least 34 years.
Still plenty of wheels in motion and that ground will be crucial for a number.
Your maybe minor nagging doubt as regards Cloth Cap Peanuts I think becomes a major if backing at 6/1 now or even 8/1 if you was lucky enough1 -
Bloody sent that before finishing it!!!!!!!
But stays minor if getting I'd say 20/1 plus and that's where value comes into betting.
Fantastic info again Peanuts1 -
Cheers @killer kish - completely agree re CCkiller kish said:Bloody sent that before finishing it!!!!!!!
But stays minor if getting I'd say 20/1 plus and that's where value comes into betting.
Fantastic info again Peanuts
Obviously very happy to have him on my team at 20s but he’s unlikely to be my model’s #1 rated even on good ground, no matter how well in he is on paper.
Couldn’t back him single figures tbh.
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killer kish said:
I was sadly on The Conditional too, my only two ante post plays. Kimberlite Candy still bugging me with no decision in sight.PeanutsMolloy said:
Nice one @killer kish - I remember you were on to him early. Got a sub yet for sadly departed The Conditional?killer kish said:
Think I jinxed Cool Mix Peanuts..... Very happy with my 25/1 Cloth Cap nowPeanutsMolloy said:
Sadly taken out on vet's advice.killer kish said:Cool Mix also a strong jockey/trainer combo on yearly stats at the meeting...... Good luck Peanuts
But what an impressive win, making every yard, by Cloth Cap.
Will surely be put up a fair amount in the handicap come Tuesday and be meaningfully well in on 10 April.
Now cut to 8/1 (top price) for the GN. Thankfully took him antepost at 20s a while back, cos he's sure now to fit the stats-bill on a decent surface.
That said - the long range weather forecast from Accuweather for Liverpool is wet all week ahead of the big day.
If you're looking for some possible value @killer kish I'd recommend putting the slide rule over Discorama.
He'll definitely be on my team if he lines up, as connections intend. 2 fails of my Screentest (1 if he has a prep), which is OK and he has a couple of positives to mark him out.- Well-weighted. 10.06 on his back and, prior to yesterday, on collateral 25-26f form via The Conditional (last year's Ultima and last November's Ladbroke Trophy), Discorama had a 6lb pull at the GN weights with Cloth Cap. Off yesterday's fine run, CC will be comfortably well in with most of the field but, arguably, Discorama's the exception.
- Stamina proven. Close 2nd to Le Breuil in the infamous 4m Novice chase on atrocious ground at the 2019 Festival. Whereas that race appears to have bottomed Le B, Discorama has run well subsequently, notching a higher RPR 3 times.
- A decent run earlier this term and goes well fresh. Had a near miss conceding weight to Milan Native in his seasonal bow but hasn't run since disappointing in November's 3.5m chase at Cheltenham (a wind op since). Said to be going well back in training and he may go straight to Aintree and, notably, he has a very strong record fresh. He's 2 wins and 4 near-misses (<4L) from 7 runs after a 50+ day break and the only failure was when falling at the last in a novice chase when every chance of winning (at least near missing) - that was his only failure to complete in 18 races under rules. His sire Saddler Maker tends to impart resolve to his progency.
- Meaningful cut would probably suit best but he travels fine on better ground (ran respectably on quick ground in a competitive Grade 1 over 2.5m as a 5 yo behind Delta Work)
- Goes well in the spring (83% making-the-frame in March & April compared to 50% at other times).
Finally, an esoteric point that a gets sad NH statto excited.
He has an interesting and unusual aspect to his pedigree, with 3 different potential sources of the "big heart" gene.
Without wishing to send you to sleep, it's widely believed that racehorses with exceptional endurance benefit from an enlarged heart and that there exists a "big heart" gene conveyed to progeny via the X chromosome.
An X chromosome can only be conveyed to a male by their dam (a sire conveys a Y chromosome to a son). So, a champion sire with a big heart in the ancestry conveys its X chromosome only to daughters and so the gene can be passed down from it via females alone or in a zig-zag to a female, to a male, to a female etc ............. still awake?
In Discorama's case, he has 3 separate zig-zag patterns connecting him via his dam and his 2nd and 3rd dams to exceptional Champions on the flat and sires: Mill Reef (whose dam-sire Princequillo was found to transmit the largest heart of all - to Secretariat, for example), Tanerko and Northern Dancer, each of whose progeny include multiple 12f+ Group 1 winners.
In particular, Northern Dancer (famously) and Tanerko (top French sire with similar genetic attributes to Wild Risk) can be hugely influential in any part of a NH pedigree but 3 different zig-zag lines potentially conveying such potent "big heart" genes via the damline is unusual.
It doesn't necessarily make Discorama a superstar (it clearly hasn't) but it may mean that the 8 year old has the capacity to be hitting the line strongly at the end of a 34.5f Grand National.
From several different angles, assuming he lines up fit and well, 40s looks very interesting e/w value IMHO.
He'll probably fall at the first now
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Excellent case made Peanuts,and will have a closer look later. Been going through some Cheltenham form and updating all my trends today and from nowhere Santini came into my head for the National?!1
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Obviously a quality proposition but the stats-bar is that much higher if carrying topweight - Many Clouds effectively opened the door of course but he had a lot more going for him pedigree-wise.killer kish said:Excellent case made Peanuts,and will have a closer look later. Been going through some Cheltenham form and updating all my trends today and from nowhere Santini came into my head for the National?!
He needs to clear a few fails, including a small but big one for a GN, which is no form in a 15+ chase field (though he went close in the 20-strong Albert Bartlett 3 years ago of course).
Another big run in the Gold Cup would reduce him to 2 fails (indicating a big run at Aintree possible) but there's no obviously positive to point to to give him the nod over others when it comes to finishing in the money.
Pedigree OK. A stayers' sire, Milan (also sired One For Arthur and Double Seven) but Santini has nothing like the strength of damside that OFA or indeed Double Seven had from a GN perspective.
He'd have to demolish the oppo in the GC (RPR176 territory) to upgrade his GN stat-profile strongly enough to figure, according to my system.
But I'd never say never.1 -
I don't like backing horses who have Cheltenham as their main target. But if they are using Cheltenham as a warm up for the National it can be a positive. Knowing the difference is the problem.2
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Having slept on it for 24 hours, the RP has decided Cloth Cap's win on Saturday was worth another 5lbs on top of their initial 160 rating.
Now accorded it a RPR165 - a full 12lbs better than his Hennessy run in their opinion and 17lbs higher than his GN mark.
It was a fine run on Saturday, no doubt, and he was on paper badly weighted against his rivals but nearly a stone better than when he demolished a big field at Newbury?
Saturday's 4 rivals were a 12 yo that has been on the downgrade for 2 years, a favourite whose best form is at shorter, a Soft-ground horse and a good prospect who jumped poorly. In comparison with the 2 other chases on the card, the time (19.8 secs slow of std) was decent but not sensational.
We'll find out tomorrow how "well-in" he is in the handicapper's view but a 17lb premium of season-high 3m+ chase RPR to GNOR is the highest of any GN runner since (at least) the course changes. A word of caution however - the next highest were:- Definitly Red - 15lbs in 2017 SP 10/1 (PU after 7 - badly hampered)
- Soll - 13lbs in 2015 SP 9/1 (9th - bled)
- Kruzhlinin - 13lbs in 2014 (10th)
- The Druids Nephew - 12lbs in 2015 SP 10/1 (fell 6 out when leading)
- Holywell - 12lbs in 2016 SP 11/1 (fell 2nd)
- Vicente - 12lbs in 2017 SP 16/1 (fell 1st)
- Tiger Roll - 12lbs in 2019 SP 4/1 (nuff said)
..... and when I last looked, he's still by Beneficial
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Sadly Bellshill suffered a fatal injury on the gallops today.
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It's official - Cloth Cap's future mark raised 14lbs to OR162 for his win on Saturday.
If the GN weights were being framed today, he'd have to carry 11.05. He'd better get his ground and win it this time cos' it'll be a while before he'll be on a winnable-with weight again.
It was a comfortable and fine win at Kelso (and probably a progression on Newbury) but I seriously have to question, based on the rivals and the time of the race, that it was a stone better. Nonetheless, he's undoubtedly very nicely weighted for Aintree.
PS Accuweather still forecasting wet and cold weather for Liverpool all 5 days Mon~Fri before the GN.2 -
Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?0
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Bookmakers ;-)RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?8 -
I am surprised bookmakers still exist. Most of them have banned me. I have no idea why. They say it is a trading decision. The odds they offer are miles away from what you can get on the exchanges. They seem to be digging their own graves.bobmunro said:
Bookmakers ;-)RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?0 - Sponsored links:
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I agree that it will likely be GS but that's partly because if that forecast is vaguely correct, they'll be reluctant to water too much.RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?
But the key is whether rain comes at the wrong moment, heavily on the Friday or on race day. If so, there's FA they can do to stop it being Soft or worse. Don't forget 2 of the last 4 GNs have been run on officially Soft and Heavy ground.
In any event, to answer your question, bearing in mind that wheels are still in motion with some preps to be run (but assuming that there is no prep where there is no current entry), on GS my model rates the best chances as:- Magic of Light (#1 selection with 1 Screentest fail & 1 positive) - currently 20-25/1
- Cloth Cap (2 fails & 2 positives) - 6/1
- Minellacelebration (2 fails & 2 positives) - 100/1
- Discorama (2 fails & 1 positive) - 40/1
The following could still be e/w contenders on GS with a safe and steady final prep (with or without one, they are already co-best-rated on Soft [with Lord Du Mesnil, with Discorama and Magic of Light the next best e/w candidates]):- Kimberlite Candy (with a run) - I'm on him e/w antepost at 40/1 anyway so he'll be on my team irrespective of ground
- Yala Enki (with a run) - ditto
- Balko Des Flos, in the XC (RPR target 157+) - 50/1
- Potters Corner, in the XC (RPR target 154+) - 25/1 - would thereby also become among the best-rated on Soft
- Any Second Now, in the Leinster National (RPR target 157+) - 20/1
- Talkischeap, in the Ultima (RPR target 160+) - 66/1
I'll do a sketch of the pluses and minuses, as assessed by the model, for each of these when there are fewer moving parts.
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Scratch Any Second Now from possibles for my model's selections.
Taken out of the Leinster National and, if he has a prep at all, it will likely be a 2m Grade 2 at Navan on Saturday, which won't tick enough boxes.0 -
We're doing ok!RobinKeepsBobbin said:
I am surprised bookmakers still exist. Most of them have banned me. I have no idea why. They say it is a trading decision. The odds they offer are miles away from what you can get on the exchanges. They seem to be digging their own graves.bobmunro said:
Bookmakers ;-)RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?2 -
Why do they do this? I Googled it and found thousands of complaints from people who have been banned from offers. The prices are so far away from the exchanges it is amazing anyone uses them. Even with the offers they are still not competitive. Here are the first four favourites. The difference for the outsiders is even bigger.bobmunro said:
We're doing ok!RobinKeepsBobbin said:
I am surprised bookmakers still exist. Most of them have banned me. I have no idea why. They say it is a trading decision. The odds they offer are miles away from what you can get on the exchanges. They seem to be digging their own graves.bobmunro said:
Bookmakers ;-)RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts... The going will probably be good to soft as they seem to do anything possible to make it so. Assuming it is good to soft who does your model say will benefit most from it?
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Look at the liquidity on Betfair in the example you've posted. There's also the 5% commission.
If Betfair are so good then why do people still complain that they've been restricted by bookmakers?0 -
Because if bookmakers disappear the layers on the exchanges will have no competition and the odds will drop. I have tried to place bets of £500 with bookmakers and been refused or offered a lower price. The thing that really annoys me is they will never admit the real reason for these restrictions. They say it is a trading decision. There was a time when traders were skilled workers. Now they just look at what Betfair are offering and offer a bit less. I would like to know the truth. Restricting a customer is basically sending them to a competitor. Imagine Tesco doing a buy one get one free offer and saying it doesn't apply to you.bobmunro said:Look at the liquidity on Betfair in the example you've posted. There's also the 5% commission.
If Betfair are so good then why do people still complain that they've been restricted by bookmakers?0 -
The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.0 -
I’m restricted by most bookmakers but I very rarely place a bet with the two I have got anymore. Admittedly moaned at the time but I’m much happier with Betfair or Smarkets now, better odds 99% of the time even taking the commission into account.bobmunro said:Look at the liquidity on Betfair in the example you've posted. There's also the 5% commission.
If Betfair are so good then why do people still complain that they've been restricted by bookmakers?I’m guessing a lot of the complaining is due to the loss of promotions that you rarely get with the exchanges.0 -
It’s taking value that leads to restrictions and/or removal of bonuses. Some decisions are still bewildering but I do understand why a lot of them are made.RobinKeepsBobbin said:
Yes but i can't understand why a bookmaker wants to lose a customer. They must know if they mess peope about they will go somewhere else. I do a correct score lucky 15 every Saturday and a few £20 straight wins on the horses. Ladbrokes limited my stakes to £3.64 and Hills banned me from promotions. All the other high street bookies did similar things. I don't trust bookies i have never heard of so i do the sign up offer and usually never use them again. Now i do 99% of my betting on the exchanges.Callumcafc said:The average punter doesn't know any better, the exchange can appear confusing with all the decimal odds and commissions. t's also not ideal if you want to have a look each way or do multiples.
The average punter is lazy, they want to tap a few buttons and put their tenner on the horse that their mate down the pub had a good word for. The bookies apps are designed with all of this in mind.
I'm not sure the logic re: the odds dropping without the bookies holds any water, as soon as sharps find value they'll take it whether it's on the back or lay side. Remember that the bookies generally follow the money, not the other way around.1
