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How many points do you usually need in the championship to be considered "safe"

Dave2l
Dave2l Posts: 8,880
in General Charlton
My guess is...you probably need 50+ points.

We have started this season brightly but there are plenty of examples that suggest the 1st game will not really have any indication as to where you will finish at the end of the season.

I can already think of a few strong Charlton  related examples that went completely the other way.

1998. 2018. 2008.

This is going to be a very stretched out tough old season. Every point will count.
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Comments

  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,090
    50 is the target.
  • CAFCTrev
    CAFCTrev Posts: 6,016
    edited August 2019
    I think Peterborough went down in 12/13 with 54 points or something, a record high? That was an anomaly though. 
  • Covered_End_Lad
    Covered_End_Lad Posts: 5,734
    Had a look at this they other day, 50 seems to guarantee it although some seasons recently as few as 42 would have kept you up.
  • Brendan_O_Connell
    Brendan_O_Connell Posts: 8,938
    53
  • LenGlover
    LenGlover Posts: 31,682
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,743
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    Good 
  • Scoham
    Scoham Posts: 37,516
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
  • iainment
    iainment Posts: 8,049
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    And we're on track for that.
  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,697
    a point more than the team in 22nd, maybe not even that if you have a better GD …..
  • stackitsteve
    stackitsteve Posts: 12,111
    Similar to the magical 40 in the Premier League really in that a little over 1 point a game is enough.

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  • MillwallFan
    MillwallFan Posts: 3,368
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,923
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 


    I feel for you.




    (I'm also a liar!)

  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,032
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
     All went wrong when Big Mick left to manage Ireland
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,032
    Looking at the 3rd bottom team in recent seasons

    2018/19 - 40
    2017/18 - 41
    2016/17 - 51 (Blackburn on GD)
    2015/16 - 40 (us...)
    2014/15 - 41
    2013/14 - 44 (Doncaster on GD)

    In most years 50 should see you safe, though it depends on how many "bad" teams there are. If there are a number of teams at a similar "adequate" level, you'll need 50 plus
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,976
    edited August 2019
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Ah, yes the "Morts in the snow" season ...... when we beat you 2-0 at The Den before Christmas when you were top ..... and you barely won another game until relegation claimed you.

    Maybe history will repeat itself? :smile:


  • Johnnysummers5
    Johnnysummers5 Posts: 8,469
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 

    My favourite year, hope happyvalley is taking notes
  • Dave2l
    Dave2l Posts: 8,880
    If I was to make a prediction.

    Bowyer is going to treat most games like cup finals. We will stay up with 55 points.

    Then undoubtedly , second season syndrome will hit us. Roland still wouldn't have sold. The budget gets decreased even further.

    Key members of our players and coaches leave ..

    Then back to where we post curbs belong.

    League f*cking one.
  • charltonkeston
    charltonkeston Posts: 7,382
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    Even if we came close to 138 points, Leeds would still be on tv more than Manchester City and we would be lucky to on twice before May.
  • Mendonca In Asdas
    Mendonca In Asdas Posts: 22,674
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Agh, those were the days....
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,090
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    What a great day. I remember celebrating down the Doom & Gloom.

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  • soapboxsam
    soapboxsam Posts: 23,240
    edited August 2019
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Lovely happy by-gone times when Twitter was for the birds, and Millwall dropped further than the price of a painting by Rolf Harris.

    Doing the double over the Spanners, were halcyon days. 

    Can 1996 be revisited and become a 2020 vision ?
  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,743
    Oggy Red said:
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Ah, yes the "Morts in the snow" season ...... when we beat you 2-0 at The Den before Christmas when you were top ..... and you barely won another game until relegation claimed you.

    Maybe history will repeat itself? :smile:


    Kim Grants best ever game for Charlton. 
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,934
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
  • soapboxsam
    soapboxsam Posts: 23,240
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,934
    soapboxsam said:
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
    Sunderland needed 92 points to go up automatically or 2 points per game. They just lost 5 matches all season and yet ended up 7 points shy of that target with 85 points - not the 50 we are talking about.

    We don't need 2 points a game to stay up. We need to do what we did on Saturday - nick one in three games and the odd draw will see us safe. If we win just 14 of our remaining 45 games and draw 5 we can, effectively, afford to lose 26 matches and still stay up. If we try not to lose half of our remaining games by drawing them we will go down.
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,032
    Thinking about it, this season I think we will need 50 points to survive as I don't see the really weak teams  that you sometimes get. 

    Last season had a desperately poor Ipswich, a financially insolvent Bolton and Rotherham who were the epitome of the well managed small club giving their all, but not being quite good enough. I expect the 3 promoted sides to be bottom half, maybe bottom 6, but all of us should be stronger than Rotherham
  • iainment
    iainment Posts: 8,049
    iainment said:
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    And we're on track for that.
    Still on track!!!
  • SoundAsa£
    SoundAsa£ Posts: 22,515
    6
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,934
    Addick Addict said:
    soapboxsam said:
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
    Sunderland needed 92 points to go up automatically or 2 points per game. They just lost 5 matches all season and yet ended up 7 points shy of that target with 85 points - not the 50 we are talking about.

    We don't need 2 points a game to stay up. We need to do what we did on Saturday - nick one in three games and the odd draw will see us safe. If we win just 14 of our remaining 45 games and draw 5 we can, effectively, afford to lose 26 matches and still stay up. If we try not to lose half of our remaining games by drawing them we will go down.

    13 wins from 44 matches will do now. And Sunderland's addiction continues with 2/2 draws this season.
  • Dannoo_86
    Dannoo_86 Posts: 730
    6 not enough?

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