Lee Bowyer and the Nine Game Blocks
At the recent Bromley Addicks meeting Lee Bowyer said that he breaks down the season into nine game sections.
He also said that to gain automatic promotion Charlton would need to be "in the 90s" pointswise
LB expects to get six wins or maybe five wins and two draws from each nine game block. That equates to 18 or 17 points respectively.
There would be five of these nine game blocks in a season (5 x 9 = 45) so 18 points in each would mean 90 points.
The sharp eyed among you will have noted that there are 46 games in the season so that last game (Gillingham away) is a bonus ball.
So far we've P7 W3 D2 L2 and so have 11 points. Wins in our next two games will give us the minimum requirement of five wins and two draws with 17 points. Not ideal but early days and the squad is still coming together (and still picking up injuries but we digress).
But is 90 points enough?
Last season 2nd place Blackburn has 96 points and third place Shrewsbury 87 (we got 71 to finish 6th)
In previous years the figures for second and third were:
2nd 3rd
2016/7 86 82
2015/6 85 84
2014/5 91 89
2013/4 94 86
2012/3 83 79
2011/2 93 90 (Champions had 101 points that year)
So Bowyer seems to have it statistically right. Getting into the 90s would have been enough for automatic promotion more seasons than not. Often 90 points was enough for the title.
All he's got to do now, as Steve Gallen pointed out, is win games.
See you after the Plymouth game for an update when the first nine game block has been completed.
Comments
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I reckon he will meet the first nine game target.0
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I'd hope so as dont think there is a Wigan or Blackburn that is good enough to run away with the League this year... i.e. Blackburn went on a damned big run to ensure they got into second spot and didnt lose a game for the majority of the season
As for this season I think it'll get to the point where a lot of sides will beat each other which'll keep it a lot tighter0 -
He got that idea from Robinson when he appeared on Celebrity Squares4
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I would count Sunderland, at the opposite end of the season, as the bonus ball for many reasons.
I think Sunderland will do a Blackburn once all the new players are integrated and legacy issues sorted.
No reason why we can't finish top 6 minimum and take it from there. I think we have a better team and more flexibility in the squad than last season.
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What'll get interesting is when the sides expected at the top start to play each othersCafc43v3r said:I would count Sunderland, at the opposite end of the season, as the bonus ball for many reasons.
I think Sunderland will do a Blackburn once all the new players are integrated and legacy issues sorted.
No reason why we can't finish top 6 minimum and take it from there. I think we have a better team and more flexibility in the squad than last season.
Sunderland and Peterborough have only faced Charlton in terms of sides who were being tipped to finish in the top six this season and you have to argue that neither deserved to beat us based on where the winning goals came from - Yes Sunderland beat Scunthorpe 3-0 yet that was before the latter had their manager sacked
Same with Portsmouth and Barnsley, you have to look at their results at the moment and question if they've truly been tested yet - Ultimately think there will be another Fleetwood or Shrewsbury up in the Play-Offs again this year so unfortunately cant rule out at least one of Fleetwood | Walsall | Doncaster sticking around in the long term
Edit: What looks fun is when Sunderland face Peterborough and Portsmouth, second league facings are:
22nd April: Peterborough v Sunderland
27th April: Sunderland v Portsmouth1 -
I did think of that but then thought that was cheating a bit. If we'd won or drawn we would have counted it.Cafc43v3r said:I would count Sunderland, at the opposite end of the season, as the bonus ball for many reasons.
I think Sunderland will do a Blackburn once all the new players are integrated and legacy issues sorted.
No reason why we can't finish top 6 minimum and take it from there. I think we have a better team and more flexibility in the squad than last season.
No idea if Lee see's it that way or not.0 -
The progress of LB's 9 game plan will be updated on the Statbank after each game8
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So, basically, meet the target for this game block, win all 9 games in each of the following 3 game blocks and the players can have the rest of the season off...0
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Well that's pretty much what they used to do under Curbishley when they hit the magic 40 points!!letthegoodtimesroll said:So, basically, meet the target for this game block, win all 9 games in each of the following 3 game blocks and the players can have the rest of the season off...
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Sounds more like an instalment of Sherlock Holmes0
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Its a good way of looking at things, but some blocks are going to be harder than others. 90 points will probably be enough, i can see Sunderland pulling away, potentially barnsley could do either hang back or join them.
Will be interesting to see how we are matching up, but we will look at the bigger picture on a result by result basis. We should make top 6 with this squad and be stronger than last season.1 -
In the minority here but despite having a prick of a manager I can see Peterborough finishing top two.1
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johnnybev1987 said:
Its a good way of looking at things, but some blocks are going to be harder than others. 90 points will probably be enough, i can see Sunderland pulling away, potentially barnsley could do either hang back or join them.
Will be interesting to see how we are matching up, but we will look at the bigger picture on a result by result basis. We should make top 6 with this squad and be stronger than last season.
IMO still far too early to predict anything.
Teams need to play 15 games, and then the table starts to set a pattern.
Anything else right now is just plain guesswork based on well, nothing really.
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I think I’m right in saying that if we win all our games then I’m confident we will go up as Champions.0
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Has any team ever won 42 games in League One before?ShootersHillGuru said:I think I’m right in saying that if we win all our games then I’m confident we will go up as Champions.
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Pretty sure we have....Oggy Red said:
Has any team ever won 42 games in League One before?ShootersHillGuru said:I think I’m right in saying that if we win all our games then I’m confident we will go up as Champions.
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126 points?Cardinal Sin said:
Pretty sure we have....Oggy Red said:
Has any team ever won 42 games in League One before?ShootersHillGuru said:I think I’m right in saying that if we win all our games then I’m confident we will go up as Champions.
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I don’t want top two as much prefer promotion via Wembley so will take that instead anyway.0
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Nooooo.... way too stressful and wide open to that last minute goal we seem to be so vulnerable to. Don't mind not winning it - but definitely 1st or 2nd for me!Athletico Charlton said:I don’t want top two as much prefer promotion via Wembley so will take that instead anyway.
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I don't suppose it matters how you get the points but targets are helpful to identify if you are on course or not. I would say that given the injuries and size of the squad, we are doing ok. Of course we could easily have another injury crisis, but there could well be a period in a couple of games where we are as strong as we are going to be and it might be good to fill our boots then points wise!0
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It would be 128 points ........ 42 wins, plus the 2 draws we already have.Scoham said:
126 points?Cardinal Sin said:
Pretty sure we have....Oggy Red said:
Has any team ever won 42 games in League One before?ShootersHillGuru said:I think I’m right in saying that if we win all our games then I’m confident we will go up as Champions.
Shooters Hill Guru would be right, we'd go up as Champions!
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So ends the first nine game block.
After Plymouth we're:
P9 W5 D2 L2
Lee's target is six wins from each nine game block or five wins and two draws as a minimum.
So we're on target, just.
The last four games have all been wins so we're in form going into the next nine.4 -
Block Two - games 10 to 18
Luton (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Coventry (H)
Walsall (A)*
Barnsley (H)
Oxford (H)
Rochdale (A)
Doncaster (H)
Portsmouth (A)
* Possible postponement due to international call ups0 -
1Henry Irving said:Block Two - games 10 to 18
Luton (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Coventry (H)
Walsall (A)
Barnsley (H)
Oxford (H)
Rochdale (A)
Doncaster (H)
Portsmouth (A)
3
3
3
1
3
3
1
Just squeeze to 18 points0 -
I don't personally think 5 wins and 2 draws from every 9 games will be anywhere near enough to go up this season. That works out to 85 points, but i think it'll take at least 95 to get automatic.Henry Irving said:So ends the first nine game block.
After Plymouth were are
P9 W5 D2 L2
Lee's target is six wins from each nine game block or five wins and two draws as a minimum.
So we're on target, just.
The last four games have all been wins so we're in form going into the next nine.
It's a pretty shit division and i can't see the likes of Pompey, Peterborough, Sunderland and Barnsley losing too many games. After the first batch of 9 games, they've lost 3 games between them.1 -
2 points per game will get you automatic promotion 9 times out of 10.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I don't personally think 5 wins and 2 draws from every 9 games will be anywhere near enough to go up this season. That works out to 85 points, but i think it'll take at least 95 to get automatic.Henry Irving said:So ends the first nine game block.
After Plymouth were are
P9 W5 D2 L2
Lee's target is six wins from each nine game block or five wins and two draws as a minimum.
So we're on target, just.
The last four games have all been wins so we're in form going into the next nine.
It's a pretty shit division and i can't see the likes of Pompey, Peterborough, Sunderland and Barnsley losing too many games. After the first batch of 9 games, they've lost 3 games between them.
So 92 points should be enough.0 -
80 points will be enough to get into the play offs which is the minimum aim.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I don't personally think 5 wins and 2 draws from every 9 games will be anywhere near enough to go up this season. That works out to 85 points, but i think it'll take at least 95 to get automatic.Henry Irving said:So ends the first nine game block.
After Plymouth were are
P9 W5 D2 L2
Lee's target is six wins from each nine game block or five wins and two draws as a minimum.
So we're on target, just.
The last four games have all been wins so we're in form going into the next nine.
It's a pretty shit division and i can't see the likes of Pompey, Peterborough, Sunderland and Barnsley losing too many games. After the first batch of 9 games, they've lost 3 games between them.
I think 27 wins is what you need to get automatic. If we take it in the 9 game blocks, then 5 wins and 2 draws in 2 of them = 34. 6 wins and 1 draw in the other 3 = 57, making 91. This is without the final game
5 wins and 2 draws is absolutely fine as solid top 6 contenders, but you're not going to run away with the league with it only equating to 86/87 points.0 -
Luton (3) | Scunthorpe (1) | Coventry (3) | Walsall (3) | Barnsley (3) | Oxford (3) | Rochdale (1) | Doncaster (3) | Portsmouth (0)Henry Irving said:Block Two - games 10 to 18
Luton (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Coventry (H)
Walsall (A)
Barnsley (H)
Oxford (H)
Rochdale (A)
Doncaster (H)
Portsmouth (A)0 -
20 out of 27 would be a great return. Would take 16 out of those games.ForeverAddickted said:
Luton (3) | Scunthorpe (1) | Coventry (3) | Walsall (3) | Barnsley (3) | Oxford (3) | Rochdale (1) | Doncaster (3) | Portsmouth (0)Henry Irving said:Block Two - games 10 to 18
Luton (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Coventry (H)
Walsall (A)
Barnsley (H)
Oxford (H)
Rochdale (A)
Doncaster (H)
Portsmouth (A)0 -
If I’m honest I don’t think we have the squad, particularly defensively to get automatic promotion. As it stands right now we are one injury away from disaster at centre back and if Page gets crocked we just don’t have cover across the back four. Having said that. I do think that we ought to be good enough for the playoffs again. If we had a decent owner then you might think that January we could address the deficiencies but when the window opens I think we will all be more worried about losing players than strengthening for the run in.1
