Can’t afford to slip up v Cambridge or Northampton. At least four points as a minimum. I can see two losses against Wycombe and Wrexham so we need to be looking for seven in the other three games. I wouldn’t want to go into the Burton game needing to win.
Golfie, is that you?
No......only because I think we'll slip up against Cambridge and probably Burton !
Bolton have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.8 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 75-77 points.
Reading have two home games and four away games left. Their home & away PPG (2.19 and 1.0) suggests they will likely end the season on 72-74 points.
Huddersfield have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.7 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 73-75 points.
So we need 78 points to be totally safe. I'd want 80-82 to make sure we get 3rd or 4th. 2 wins & 2 draws should do.
Ideally we are in a situation by the Burton game where, because Wycombe and Stockport are playing each other, we can guarantee a 2nd leg at home by winning.
One, if not both of those, will be dropping points that day. I hope we are in a position to take advantage of that.
Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.
You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
After tonight's results, and looking at Reading's favourable run in, the current top 6 look to me to be the final top 6.
They won away tonight but across the season their results away from home have been patchy at best. Don't think it's sewn up by any means.
Reading will need shooting if they don't pick up 3 wins from 5. Looking at my crystal balls, I think they will
Unless Charlton collapse completely, I feel Bolton are the only team in a position to realistically pip us to the post - but their fixture list is not the easiest. The best thing is ..... right now qualifying for the playoffs is in our own hands.
So 9 points at most will guarantee a playoff place.
Assuming each of those teams win all 5 of their remaining games (!)
The more likely outcome is that we need to win 2 more games out of our remaining 5 to guarantee a playoff position after 46 games.
Yes it is based on each of them winning all remaining games. It's not a prediction, it's just a mathematical equation for what we currently need. Like yesterday, some of those teams will drop points, and as also pointed out by another poster realistically 8 points would probably be enough to finish above Bolton even if they did win all 5, due to our much better goal difference.
Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.
You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
Remember when they gave the Wendys a get out jail card.
Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.
You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
I've said on the Reading thread that i think they'll keep getting extensions up until the EFL have their AGM in early June. You're right that it's incredibly unlikely they'll kick them out or ban them from the play offs.
If it isn't sorted by the AGM though then they'll have to do something.
I'll be disapointed if we scrape through and if we did, that would be an issue for the play offs but I still think 76/77 points will be enough to get in there.
Bolton losing at home last night was excellent for us. There's more of a cushion to 7th and realistically we only need another 4/5 points or so to finish in the play offs. Obviously we want more than that to go with momentum and have a second leg at home etc. Also want to avoid Bolton in the top 6 (they had 35 shots last night!), think that would be a difficult game.
Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi
Agreed.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.
Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistake
Plus the Peterborough game. After the Huddersfield game I was less concerned, then Mansfield and Lincoln were hard fought - which is good in a way but not convincing
Got to keep pushing you'd hope... Never forgotten the Rochdale performance at the end of 2017/18, and we went into the Play-Offs on the back of a poor result and never looked up for it. I'm still half expecting this to be a similar Play-Off campaign with next year being the season we actually get promoted.
Would be quite ironic if that happened as would be a carbon copy of Jones' first time at Luton Manager
Season One: Avoided Relegation, finished mid-table Season Two: Lost the Play-Off Semi-Finals (to Blackpool) Season Three: P2 in League Two Season Four: P1 in League One
Will there come a point where Nathan starts resting players for the semi finals or will he just keep pushing?
When the automatic spot is definitively gone and our place in the playoffs is secure. At that point it's a toss up between resting key players who are managing injuries or going flat out for a home second leg and crossing our fingers over form and fitness come the big games. I hope Jones chooses the first option.
There’s only two grounds I really wouldn’t want to visit in a playoff semi final: Reading and Stockport.
Everyone else, I am confident in our ability to grind out a draw or better and then beat them at the Valley. Those two grounds would be touch & go, most likely requiring a win at the Valley to get to Wembley.
Some people on here seem scared of playing Stockport in the semis. I just don't get that at all. Any game will be tough. They are rarely easy. And all this talk of Wycombe crumbling isn't borne out either, although they are not on the same form as Wrexham certainly.
Comments
We can still finish 10th. However points now updated on what we need to guarantee finishing above the teams below:
Blackpool - 3
Orient - 6
Huddersfield - 7
Bolton - 9
Reading - 11
So 9 points at most will guarantee a playoff place.
Stockport fixtures. 74 points. GD 24
Reading fixtures. 68 points GD 8
One, if not both of those, will be dropping points that day. I hope we are in a position to take advantage of that.
You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
The more likely outcome is that we need to win 2 more games out of our remaining 5 to guarantee a playoff position after 46 games.
Looking at my crystal balls, I think they will
Unless Charlton collapse completely, I feel Bolton are the only team in a position to realistically pip us to the post - but their fixture list is not the easiest.
The best thing is ..... right now qualifying for the playoffs is in our own hands.
If it isn't sorted by the AGM though then they'll have to do something.
Would be quite ironic if that happened as would be a carbon copy of Jones' first time at Luton Manager
Season One: Avoided Relegation, finished mid-table
Season Two: Lost the Play-Off Semi-Finals (to Blackpool)
Season Three: P2 in League Two
Season Four: P1 in League One
Home form table: