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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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Posted on 22nd January. 9 home wins plus 1 draw at home (with Burton still to come) and averaged 1.75 points away meaning we've reached 79 points three games early. Never ever in doubt!!!Addick Addict said:With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4)
Barnsley (5)
Lincoln (12)
Exeter (14)
Stevenage (16)
Wigan (17)
Bristol Rovers (18)
Peterborough (19)
Northampton (20)
Shrewsbury (22)
Burton (23)
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.9 -
If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.5
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Have you got the lottery numbers too 😀Addick Addict said:
Posted on 22nd January. 9 home wins plus 1 draw at home (with Burton still to come) and averaged 1.75 points away meaning we've reached 79 points three games early. Never ever in doubt!!!Addick Addict said:With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4)
Barnsley (5)
Lincoln (12)
Exeter (14)
Stevenage (16)
Wigan (17)
Bristol Rovers (18)
Peterborough (19)
Northampton (20)
Shrewsbury (22)
Burton (23)
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.3 -
In betting terms we are a best priced 11/5 for promotion (which will take into account our chances of going up automatically together with an input of ours and the other contenders form) which equates to approximately 31.25%MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.0 -
Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?
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In a semi final there's only 2 teams in it from our perspective, so a 50% chance of winning that. In a final, if we get there, 50% chance of winning that. 50% x 50% = 25%.MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.
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I only have the winning ones and sharing them would only dilute my returns. I'm on us at 20/1 to go up automatically and 4/1 to be promoted. That said, I did get rightly lambasted for suggesting that there was value in backing Bournemouth to go down at the big prices available at the time.golfaddick said:
Have you got the lottery numbers too 😀Addick Addict said:
Posted on 22nd January. 9 home wins plus 1 draw at home (with Burton still to come) and averaged 1.75 points away meaning we've reached 79 points three games early. Never ever in doubt!!!Addick Addict said:With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4)
Barnsley (5)
Lincoln (12)
Exeter (14)
Stevenage (16)
Wigan (17)
Bristol Rovers (18)
Peterborough (19)
Northampton (20)
Shrewsbury (22)
Burton (23)
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.
I also put up Newcastle at 19/1 to finish second in the PL. Subsequently I backed them at 40/1 and 50/1 and they are now about at 7/1 shot to do so. However, although they have to go to Arsenal that is, actually a plus given that Newcastle have already beaten them twice this season and Arsenal will be resting players prior to playing their games around the Champions League semis and they have only picked up 10 points from their last 7 PL matches. In actual fact, Newcastle's biggest hurdle might be tomorrow at Villa Park.1 -
Without a promotion, this season can only be considered a failure.Mendonca In Asdas said:Whatever happens in the next few weeks, it’s still been a good season, promotion would be the icing on the cake, as I am sick of being in this division, keep it going NJ!4 -
We take the opportunity to rest players especially those most likely to pick up an injury but only if Burton are safe. Although Bristol Rovers have been in shocking form they did get a great result at Wrexham which keeps them in with a chance. If Burton lose to Birmingham and Bristol Rovers beat Stevenage (who haven't been great and have nothing to play for anyway) on Monday then there is still a chance are that our final game will still have some bearing on the relegation outcome anyway.golfaddick said:Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?0 -
MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.
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But what if you open one of the Wembley dressing room doors and there’s a goat behind it?Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:
In a semi final there's only 2 teams in it from our perspective, so a 50% chance of winning that. In a final, if we get there, 50% chance of winning that. 50% x 50% = 25%.MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.7 -
That's numberwang.Callumcafc said:
But what if you open one of the Wembley dressing room doors and there’s a goat behind it?Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:
In a semi final there's only 2 teams in it from our perspective, so a 50% chance of winning that. In a final, if we get there, 50% chance of winning that. 50% x 50% = 25%.MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.16 -
Not keen on this. I don’t think our second string beats many teams in the league ; wouldn’t like the idea of going into the playoffs having lost momentum.golfaddick said:Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?4 -
I probably wouldn’t start resting players for the Burton match unless someone is seriously fatigued):golfaddick said:Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?A) I would imagine positioning in the playoffs may still be up for grabs (perhaps even the difference between home & away advantage in the second leg). I think being at home in the second leg is so important to our chances
B.) there’s a week’s break between the final match and the first game of the playoffs which should be sufficient recovery.
Momentum is so important in League One. I have a completely untested theory that in divisions/leagues where the talent of the players is relatively poor, momentum plays a much bigger part in the outcome of matches. Going into the playoffs having had a good win against Burton infront of a rocking Valley will be worth more than just points.2 -
I think we are already seeing players rested when they are not 100%. That doesn't mean we are not going for the automatic place but it is common sense not to risk players. If a player is fully fit, they are going to play.
One thing noticeable with this season for us is that momentum doesn't seem to be an issue. We have a setback like Rotherham and Posh and then go on a new run.3 -
True, although the valley is a bit of a fortress and losing to Burton could still be scarring . It just seems to me that we could have almost anyone missing - like Gillesphey yesterday and it can go wrong. That could have been the second game that McIntyre has cost us 3 points at home . We looked poor without Edwards , Jones , Campbell too. I’d be extremely worried if Godden weren’t fit , without Leaburn and Campbell as options . Perhaps I am talking myself into thinking 11 kids against Burton is the way forward !MuttleyCAFC said:I think we are already seeing players rested when they are not 100%. That doesn't mean we are not going for the automatic place but it is common sense not to risk players. If a player is fully fit, they are going to play.
One thing noticeable with this season for us is that momentum doesn't seem to be an issue. We have a setback like Rotherham and Posh and then go on a new run.0 -
A good season, but a failure if we don’t get promoted. Especially when Alfie May and George Dobson are likely to get promoted.Mendonca In Asdas said:Whatever happens in the next few weeks, it’s still been a good season, promotion would be the icing on the cake, as I am sick of being in this division, keep it going NJ!6 -
ShootersHillGuru said:Not a prayer.cafcfan said:No.Bedsaddick said:I give us a 20-25 % chance .golfaddick said:No.
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I now give us a 20-25% chance of Automatics 😉🔴⚪️1
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Some of us had faith earlier than others…. !
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Last 6 aways, we are top of the form table (Northampton are second!), while Wrexham and Wycombe are 8th and 9th in last 6 homes form table.10
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No promotion from our record breaking stay in league one, once relegated in to it, is failure
thankfully we can still go up
ask Bolton if coming third last season has helped them achieve promotion .
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I posted this on 5th Jan and got lolled at. So little faithBigRedEvil said:Everyone ruling out automatic promotion already?1 -
The numbas don't lie, and they spell disaster for any team that comes to the ValleyCAFCTrev said:MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.
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Only if we also can't drop a place in the league due to a loss. If it's a fact we can't get 2nd but we're in 4th and 5th are 2 points behind you play your first team because otherwise we could give up the home advantagegolfaddick said:Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?1 -
BigRedEvil said:
I posted this on 5th Jan and got lolled at. So little faithBigRedEvil said:Everyone ruling out automatic promotion already?JustFloydRoad said:ShootersHillGuru said:Not a prayer.cafcfan said:No.Bedsaddick said:I give us a 20-25 % chance .golfaddick said:No.The recriminations have begun!0 -
Apologies for the picture of that little scrote. But according to Opta, your chances of getting through the play-offs rest strongly upon what position you finished in the League.MuttleyCAFC said:If we have to settle for the play offs, there are 4 teams in them so that should mean a 25% chance of promotion. But we have to beat 2 teams so technically are there not 3 teams in it from our perspective as one will get knocked out without playing us, so does that mean our chances are 33.3333% ? I'll just get an aspirin.
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Add me to that list JustFloyd,I said No with a full stop too…me thinking we may miss out & have to settle for mid table,but at no point at that time was I behind getting rid of NJ,but each game after that Crawley debacle…i was so wishing I was gonna be proved wrong & boy what a way to be proved wrong too by this group of players & management,but end of day if via playoffs it’s not to be this year…(🙏🏻 it is tho) then I’m very confident before a ball is kicked next season we will go up automatically…JustFloydRoad said:ShootersHillGuru said:Not a prayer.cafcfan said:No.Bedsaddick said:I give us a 20-25 % chance .golfaddick said:No.
Cmon U Addicks…❤️🤍0 -
Even though we’ve won the last few games our performance has not been that good. I thought that we were outplayed by the Cobblers football wise but fortunate enough they couldn’t put the ball in the onion bag.The teams that will finish up in the play off positions will be more efficient in front of goal - look at Leyton Orient banging in the goals.
I won’t be too displeased if we don’t get promotion this season - do we have a strong enough team to last in the Championship (I’m not that confident). Should we fail this season, I”m hopeful that next season will be the lasts in the third tier.0 -
If Burton are safe we rest the players we can’t afford to get injured ie, TC, Godden, Jones and perhaps Smsll, Edwardsgolfaddick said:Question -
If we get to the Burton game & we can't get 2nd......and Burton are safe (they have a game in hand over all the others down the bottom & the next 3 are all at home) should we rest the players & put a 2nd string out ? Or rest some of the team (Jones, TC Godden, Small Ramsay) Or should we just play our best 11 as resting some might lose their rhythm ?0
