Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

Gillis

stonemuse said:

bobmunro said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

Does it not concern anyone that we've won twice at Wembley in the play offs & also at St Andrews in the play off replay. 

3 out of 3. 

Something's gotta give sometime. 

The roulette wheel has turned up red three times in a row… the next one has to be black!

The Martingale system's fallacy - the previous spins have no effect on the next spin and the chances of it being red are exactly the same for each spin. It would be different (around 5% probability) if you wanted to predict the next four spins collectively.

Yup always 50%

A little less in the case of roulette, if we're being picky.

Danny Addick

Covered End said:

Danny Addick said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

letthegoodtimesroll said:

People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.

Anything is possible but we haven't even won as many as 4 in a row all season, so to suddenly win 11 is unlikely.

Good point. I just hate the lottery of the playoffs. It’s such a shame leaving the lottery of those games and a biggun at Wembley decide the fate of our better players - Kayne, Thierry, Edwards, Coventry would surely all be hunted 

The alternative on our current standing is we end up 4th with no play off.
How does that help our better players?

Quite clearly I meant playoffs instead of going up automatically 

fenlandaddick

Can I give an answer after a couple more games?

Weegie Addick

The problem with getting to the play off final is that we won’t be facing / beating Sunderland.

golfaddick

jackmasterflash said:

Wycombe play 
Huddersfield, reading, orient, Charlton, Bolton and stockport in the run in, surely if we have caught 7 points on them in the last ten matches then we will overtake them soon.
Wrexham have an easier run in like us and we need them to lose against Stockport and for us to beat Peterborough. Then only 2 points behind it sets up the finale at their place. Anything other than a Charlton and Stockport win on the weekend and it is probably too steep to catch up.

No game is a given. Who would have thought we'd lose to Swindon, at home, after  going 13 unbeaten. 

We are more likely to lose to Cambridge or Burton than we are to Wycombe or Wrexham. 

There are still many twists & turns to come.   

fenlandaddick

Weegie Addick said:

The problem with getting to the play off final is that we won’t be facing / beating Sunderland.

There is always next time... , 😉

Or the time after

oohaahmortimer

golfaddick said:

jackmasterflash said:

Wycombe play 
Huddersfield, reading, orient, Charlton, Bolton and stockport in the run in, surely if we have caught 7 points on them in the last ten matches then we will overtake them soon.
Wrexham have an easier run in like us and we need them to lose against Stockport and for us to beat Peterborough. Then only 2 points behind it sets up the finale at their place. Anything other than a Charlton and Stockport win on the weekend and it is probably too steep to catch up.

No game is a given. Who would have thought we'd lose to Swindon, at home, after  going 13 unbeaten. 

We are more likely to lose to Cambridge or Burton than we are to Wycombe or Wrexham. 

There are still many twists & turns to come.   

I bet we get a better points return from the upcoming Cambridge and Burton fixtures than we do against the 2 W’s 

Callumcafc

At the moment, we are the most likely side of any to be in the playoffs by the end of the season according to Opta.

Charlton 85%

Stockport 82%
Wrexham 64%
Huddersfield 47%
Wycombe 46%
Bolton 34%
Reading 26%
Orient 13%

If you treat play off semi finals as a coin flip, you’re looking at a 40-45% chance of a return trip to Wembley for us as things currently stand.

MuttleyCAFC

If we can win the next two we will be on 72 points. We would have to have a complete disaster not to make them from there.

CafcSCP

Looking at the gap between us and 7th, we are closer to the autos so I’d say we’ve got a place pretty much nailed down in the playoffs now.
Having said that, look how quickly we left Leyton orient 10 pts behind and suddenly Bolton 6pts.
Another point in our favour is that bar Huddersfield when we went down to 10 men and Birmingham away, we’ve not lost to any of the top 7.

cafc_se7

Pelling1993 said:

Still think if we finish above Stockport that means we will get 2nd. 

I agree with this. Stockport have just a good a chance of poaching 2nd than we do. Wycombe and Wrexham should be very worried about the pair of us.

Stockport remind me of the Shrewsbury from the season we lost to them in the playoffs. Physical but very effective at what they do.

shine166

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

CAFC_boi

shine166 said:

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

I’ll bet you anything in the world that Bolton and Reading both get no points today? Deal? 

shine166

CAFC_boi said:

shine166 said:

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

I’ll bet you anything in the world that Bolton and Reading both get no points today? Deal? 

Ha ! Just seen they are called off. Lose today and those 3 teams below us will get a nice little psychological boost, Huddersfield next weekend is a huge game. 

DyerConsequences

shine166 said:

CAFC_boi said:

shine166 said:

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

I’ll bet you anything in the world that Bolton and Reading both get no points today? Deal? 

Ha ! Just seen they are called off. Lose today and those 3 teams below us will get a nice little psychological boost, Huddersfield next weekend is a huge game. 

Or we win today and we're 8, 9 and 10 points above them and the 3 of them will be thinking it's going to be very, very hard to catch us.

shine166

DyerConsequences said:

shine166 said:

CAFC_boi said:

shine166 said:

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

I’ll bet you anything in the world that Bolton and Reading both get no points today? Deal? 

Ha ! Just seen they are called off. Lose today and those 3 teams below us will get a nice little psychological boost, Huddersfield next weekend is a huge game. 

Or we win today and we're 8, 9 and 10 points above them and the 3 of them will be thinking it's going to be very, very hard to catch us.

Absolutely 

NorthheathAddick

DyerConsequences said:

shine166 said:

CAFC_boi said:

shine166 said:

Bolton and Reading both dropping points today would be tremendous, especially if we manage to win. You'd then like to think unless there's a spectacular fall off of form over the following 8 games that the playoffs are all but certain 

I’ll bet you anything in the world that Bolton and Reading both get no points today? Deal? 

Ha ! Just seen they are called off. Lose today and those 3 teams below us will get a nice little psychological boost, Huddersfield next weekend is a huge game. 

Or we win today and we're 8, 9 and 10 points above them and the 3 of them will be thinking it's going to be very, very hard to catch us.

Yes please…👍

North Lower Neil

Feels a step too far now to get 2nd, need to win next week to consolidate the playoffs.

ForeverAddickted

5-pts off Wrexham (and possibly Wycombe) now, if you take into account the fact we were always going to need a win against them - Just need two other teams to do us a favour... We overhauled Barnsley within 4-games who were 8-pts ahead of us after we lost 4-2 at Rotherham.

Wycombe still have three other tough games around us as well, when they finish the season

Not over by a long stretch

northstandsteve

Big game next week now we cannot afford to lose that

Callumcafc

ForeverAddickted said:

5-pts off Wrexham (and possibly Wycombe) now, if you take into account the fact we were always going to need a win against them - Just need two other teams to do us a favour... We overhauled Barnsley within 4-games who were 8-pts ahead of us after we lost 4-2 at Rotherham.

Wycombe still have three other tough games around us as well, when they finish the season

Not over by a long stretch

It’s 8pts unless we win both of those games which is more unlikely than likely. Even a draw at Wrexham requires three slip ups from their seven other games against not great opposition.

Fully understand stranger things have happened but our chances will have taken a massive dent today. We’re talking 10% down to 1% or less IMO.

We were at a small chance before today and really couldn’t have afforded the slip up.

SouthWest_Addicks

We are still in a great position to finish in top 6. Always try and be positive so, pleased that Stockport lost and they didn’t make up any points on us. 

A win next week and we are effectively across the line. If we can get to 76 points, another 10 points from 8 games, I think that will be enough to secure top 6.

ForeverAddickted

Callumcafc said:

ForeverAddickted said:

5-pts off Wrexham (and possibly Wycombe) now, if you take into account the fact we were always going to need a win against them - Just need two other teams to do us a favour... We overhauled Barnsley within 4-games who were 8-pts ahead of us after we lost 4-2 at Rotherham.

Wycombe still have three other tough games around us as well, when they finish the season

Not over by a long stretch

It’s 8pts unless we win both of those games which is more unlikely than likely. Even a draw at Wrexham  requires three slip ups from their seven other games against not great opposition.

Fully understand stranger things have happened.

We were at a small chance before today and really couldn’t have afforded the slip up.

Yeah I'm still looking at the points deficit after we beat them, as there is no point thinking about 2nd if we don't win those two games - I don't think any of the 2nd - 5th will win all their remaining games, and today looked the most likely that I thought we would / could lose

Thought we'd end on 88-pts after Wigan, which means we can now afford to draw one other match

Uboat

I think we have almost no chance of top 2 now. Wrexham would really have to lose the plot and they seem to be a team that are grinding out the wins. That’s even before we get on to whether we can be consistent enough in our own run in. 

But then I’m just a drama queen. 

TootingRedArmy

Nathan will continue to take each game as it comes, yesterday happened we need to move on and focus on next Saturday and grid out a result against Huddersfield. I'm sure Nathan is focusing without saying 3rd or 4th place so we get home advantage in the 2nd leg in play off semi finals. It will be our 7th play off semi if i'm right? 3 loses, 3 vistories then 3 play off final victories back to beating Leeds. I'm surprised with 12.30 KO v Huddersfield, that the club isn't doing more to fill the Valley with ticket reductions seems a real missed opportunity to get the Valley full and Rocking. 

oohaahmortimer

I’d take a 6th place finish right here and now 


0%     Top 2
78%     Play offs 
22% outside top 6

oohaahmortimer

I thought our play off losses were palace 95ish
Swindon baileys pen 
who was the other one , my memory is mush 

clive

oohaahmortimer said:

I thought our play off losses were palace 95ish
Swindon baileys pen 
who was the other one , my memory is mush 

Shrewsbury

oohaahmortimer

Ha ha the most recent one , thanks Clive 

oohaahmortimer

Must have been the pepper spray or whatever they fired at us during that game , I climbed over the seats to get to my sisters and Neice/nephews to get them to move from the aggy area and boffin tried to hold me back thinking I’m was going for a ruck 🙄
i couldn’t fight my way out of a wet paper bag