Just read this excellent book on how important data analysis has become in football. Clubs like Brighton, Brentford and the top 6 in the Premiership have changed the way they think and use the data available now on every single action in a game to make decisions on everything from player recruitment to how they set up the team.
The ‘high press’ we’ve adopted under Jones is a classic example of a club using data to create goal opportunities and I understand that players now use it to choose their next club!
Does Nathan Jones include this data in his decisions?
Does Charlton have data analysts to provide this info?
I haven’t contacted the club directly to ask as the secrecy involved probably means they wouldn’t divulge their process but does anyone on here have knowledge of our clubs approach?
PS I vividly remember the abuse the mad Belgian received after disclosing his use of the student maths expert so I’m wearing my tin helmet preparing for the storm!
Comments
They provide incredibly detailed data which then needs data analysts.to interpret
The data behind all these stats is phenomenal, the amount that they track through the sports vests they wear (training bras) is absolutely crazy, utilising a mixture of sensors to track movements via GPS, speed, how much power they using and things like heart rate.
I have a cousin that works in football data for West Ham and the stuff they cover in data analysis now is mind boggling
Score more than the opposition and you win.
Score less than the opposition and you lose.
Everything else is just noise.
COVID Showed this up massively. The average person is numerate but not data literate.
I actually think individual xG/xA/xSaves is better than for teams. Much easier to pinpoint strengths and weaknesses that way
I do think XG and the like is a bit wanky, and feels like the Americans and their fetish for stats. It's just one factor in a plethora and can be used to inform, but not make direct decisions. It can reinforce or challenge an opinion, but should never be used in isolation to form an opinion on a player.
It's bad when used to cherry pick single-game results and claim the score isn't 'real'.
However, how well they were used under the previous regimes and this one is debatable. But they club has said that it is a department they have improved.
Data is just raw material, it is how it is how it is understood and then used that matter and that applies to football and many other fields.
For example, all the players are tested at the start of their training days, that data is used to frame their training for the day. That should help avoid injuries.
As said, XG is a bit of a blunt tool and seemed to be all the rage a few seasons ago among fans who thought it revealed the secrets of the universe when it didn't as they were only getting one headline figure on one game not all the underlying information or trends.
It now appears to have gone out of fashion, just as possession percentages have to a lesser extent.
But there is one aspect mentioned in sam's post that caught my eye.
" The wind factor..."
Forget all the stats, data, humidity etc etc. It's really not that complicated.
Just concentrate on one single factor that those of a certain age have used successfully for decades to increase their speed & agility.
Two cans of baked beans per player an hour or so before kick off ..then stand back to see the results....
....as long as the lads go nowhere near a naked flame of course.
Thank you Mr Heinz.
I don’t think who the player is gets taken into account as the point is you’re able to compare players vs the average. A top striker might score several more than xG while a poor one will be below xG, that shows you who the more effective goalscorer.
If you used who the player was then that brings opinion into it when the point of it is to compare players based on the data.
One of the passionate early adopters of data analysis in football realised that most ‘Old School’ managers wouldn’t fully implement the data results so he wanted to buy a club and run it completely based on data.
The perfect club he wanted was . . . Charlton Athletic . . .
So the club does use data analysis, it would be very interesting to find out how it is implemented on a regular basis.
Statistical analysis can be useful of course. Some sad sacks really like stats for the sake of them. Mostly they are just data. They can only be useful when they amount to information. A team's XG in any number of games could be 10 or 15 - don't mean they won any games or even scored a single goal.
Dunno what Wigan or Charlton's XG was on Saturday. The only stat that matters is the final score.
No manager or fan for that matter needs XG to tell him that a team might be creating loads of chances but scoring few goals.
Having and XG close to zero game after game doesn't mean you've lost or failed to score - Saturday's game being the perfect example.m_2 said: Didn't the bods that bought Brentford do so with the intention of relying heavily on some statistical modelling idea? They did away with the academy.
However long they used it for, can't say it wasn't successful.
I'm pretty sure on Saturday Wigan had far more possession.
Football is thrilling and the results are unpredictable because they are generally low scoring affairs. The average game has 2-3 goals in it so if an underdog nicks one, you can get unexpected results.
That, any many other similar things, gives you an edge in terms of match review, match preparation as well as in recruitment if it helps you spot the next best talent BEFORE others begin to notice that the outputs start matching with the underlying metrics.
Charlton 0.42
When a team is much higher up the table than the "xG calculated table", it does indicate a slightly false position, where a team has been getting wins in game they probably should have lost, which is unlikely to continue. Similarly, if a team is below its xG position, then things are likely to turn around soon, without having to change the manager or drastically changing the team or tactics.