Playoffs for me. Dobson and May were obviously important players but they don't make a team. Feel we have balance through the squad and that can only be a good thing.
Playoffs for me. Dobson and May were obviously important players but they don't make a team. Feel we have balance through the squad and that can only be a good thing.
This for me. I don't think we should underestimate the horror fixtures that Jones inherited last year and he steered us comfortably away from relegation. With the upgrades he has brought in over the summer and the chance to work on fitness and tactics over preseason, we should do much, much better. I feel we have more goalscoring options within the squad, even though losing May and Dobson will be blows, and good options in nearly all positions. Against this is that the league looks like it will be of a much higher standard than last year. So, a glass half full play-offs for me but we could just fall short.
I’m honestly not that confident, I really worry about where the goals are going to come from. I think we’ve believed that our defence was the main issue last season when, statistically, our goals conceded wasn’t a million miles off what would be required for the playoffs. Goals scored, which instinctively felt like less of a problem, actually was below what is required. And then we sold the guy that scored ~1/3 of them and I don’t think we’ve added enough to make up for him, let alone the other goals we’ll need to find.
Of course I hope I’m wrong, I’ve got my season ticket and will dutifully be at Wigan, but we’ve taken a massive gamble and forgive my lack of faith that it will pay off - that comes from the experience of supporting this football club.
I'd argue it really wasthe defensive record... We may have a similar amount of goals conceded to the top 6, but we kept 5 clean sheets last season (10%). No team is getting promoted out of this league with that record. The only team with a worse record than us was Carlisle, who finished 16 points off safety.
Stastically, clean sheets are the more reliable indicator of success. Total amount of goals conceded is not that reliable, as the table has dictated for the past few seasons.
History shows you need to keep clean sheets in 40-50% of your games to be up the top at the end of the season.
The real question is, have we done enough recruitment-wise to get a clean sheet in half our games? That is a massive question.
I made a similar posts at the start of the 22/23 season and 23/24 arguing that we hadn't, and I was unfortunately proved correct. This year, I'm not so sure. We haven't exactly added a plethora of new talent to the backline this Summer, but Jones may be able to get more of a tune out of them.
Either way, we need to go from 5 clean sheets to nearer 20. That's a 300% improvement. I'm somewhat doubtful that Mitchell + Mannion can lead to that kind of upswing. But I remain hopeful!
Confident about being in playoffs not because we have a far better squad overall than last season but there is not a chance NJ will allow his team to be mugged off by teams we should be beating which is what has happened the last few seasons. Those dropped points cost us
Scrape into the playoffs, people bemoan the fact we don't score that many goals but we'll grind out a fair amount of horrible games where we nick a win
Went for play-offs. I know people keep on about how we'll miss Alfie Mays goals but if the defence is better, which I think it is, and we keep more clean sheets, which I think we will, we won't need to score as many goals. There will be enough goals throughout the team without relying on one player.
High time our midfield and defence started chipping in with a few goals for a change. That for me would be the difference between a genuine promotion push and another season marking time.
I went with *just about* Playoffs, as I remain cautiously optimistic about our manager, squad and preparation for this season.
The difference last season between 5th and 9th was 6 points, so I see us fitting in that mini-bracket of sneaking in/just missing out. It's probably going to come down to a few stolen/dropped points in a couple of key games as to where we end up, but broadly, I am thinking more positively than not. Maybe that's just me - it just felt like, since NJ came in, we have turned a corner and he is the kind of manager these players needed. Even in the Pompey friendly last weekend, I was almost directly in line with him and he was absolutely losing it every time they even threatened our box. He has clearly made a point of focusing on our key frailty from last season of being far too weak at the back, and there are green shoots of progress starting to show through in the younger players and the ones he has brought in. I feel like he is getting buy in from the players and us as fans, and if we get off to a good start, I'm going to be really excited to be at The Valley every week. I feel like the soft underbelly we had is getting removed.
As for the squad, not having Alfie any more is a dumb, dumb move. Every neutral will point to that and I point to it too. No team with aspirations as we do should sell their ~20+ goal a season striker. However, all is not lost - I think our academy players look strong (e.g. TC bulking up and being strong, which I think NJ has directly impacted, plus Kanu just being Kanu and Anderson likely to keep doing his thing), the new striking options give us different dimensions and experience, and Leaburn/Aneke will supplement at different times. All the other signings all feel like they will fit in well, and we have broadly spent where we needed to. The only outlier for me is the GK, which is where I feel like we definitely missed out on one and we are rummaging in the loan market to find a good fit. I've never liked loan keepers as first choice, but maybe we will be OK with Mannion. It's the major remaining question mark for me. I don't think the way we play will require a player that "unlocks the door" in the way Fraser was supposed to - this team will work around high, physical press that attempts to force mistakes out of opposing players and punish them with the pace/quality of our wingbacks.
Like everything, good form needs to start at home, but I suspect that the start of our season (given the fixtures) will be both tight and tough affairs. We've got some real tricky fixtures first up, but if we get through them, there is points to be had through the winter games. As long as we are tough to beat and play against, we give ourselves a chance. I think we are set up to be a lot better defensively, but I certainly won't be complaining about the style of football if it yields results. Given the last couple of years, I just want us to be going into Feb/Mar looking at cementing out place in the playoffs and not writing ourselves off again.
It's going to be a tough season, but I'm hopeful for a decent one.
Theres a lot of glass half full on here. I understand that feeling but we haven't kicked off the season yet, at least wait until 7.30 Saturday evening before writing another season off.
Theres a lot of glass half full on here. I understand that feeling but we haven't kicked off the season yet, at least wait until 7.30 Saturday evening before writing another season off.
I think most go with the reality of the amount of seasons we have spent in this dog shit league and base their predictions on that.
Went for play-offs. I know people keep on about how we'll miss Alfie Mays goals but if the defence is better, which I think it is, and we keep more clean sheets, which I think we will, we won't need to score as many goals. There will be enough goals throughout the team without relying on one player.
We scored 64 goals last season with Alfie May. If we score less than that this season we will not be getting into the playoffs.
What’s happening here, it’s got to be top 2..FFS, this is our year to hold the trophy last game of the season…yes I am one of the 11…😏 Nathan Jones Red & White Army…👍
Went for play-offs. I know people keep on about how we'll miss Alfie Mays goals but if the defence is better, which I think it is, and we keep more clean sheets, which I think we will, we won't need to score as many goals. There will be enough goals throughout the team without relying on one player.
We scored 64 goals last season with Alfie May. If we score less than that this season we will not be getting into the playoffs.
And we let in 65. Keep more clean sheets then one goal is enough. It may not be pretty but if it's effective and gets us out of this league I don't think anyone will complain.
I opted for 7-12th. Am not convinced the squad is significantly stronger, so currently factoring in my hope that Jones can get a tune out of what he has got. If he can bring in 3 starters before the window closes (GK, CB and CAM), I might be more comfortable predicting top 6.
7th-12th. The summer transfer business has been solid, but the league is far stronger this year. Ultimately, we won't have enough. I still think selling May was foolish.
7th-12th would go down as another failed season for me.
Interesting that people commenting seem to mostly think 7-12th as more likely, but poll indicates more think 3-6th but those people aren't making any comment. Clear AI bots at work. Looks like Putin has managed to infiltrate the CL mods.
Comments
Can’t see anyone getting 20 plus league goals so the goals need to be spread around throughout the team
Stastically, clean sheets are the more reliable indicator of success. Total amount of goals conceded is not that reliable, as the table has dictated for the past few seasons.
History shows you need to keep clean sheets in 40-50% of your games to be up the top at the end of the season.
The real question is, have we done enough recruitment-wise to get a clean sheet in half our games? That is a massive question.
I made a similar posts at the start of the 22/23 season and 23/24 arguing that we hadn't, and I was unfortunately proved correct. This year, I'm not so sure. We haven't exactly added a plethora of new talent to the backline this Summer, but Jones may be able to get more of a tune out of them.
Either way, we need to go from 5 clean sheets to nearer 20. That's a 300% improvement. I'm somewhat doubtful that Mitchell + Mannion can lead to that kind of upswing. But I remain hopeful!
I know people keep on about how we'll miss Alfie Mays goals but if the defence is better, which I think it is, and we keep more clean sheets, which I think we will, we won't need to score as many goals.
There will be enough goals throughout the team without relying on one player.
The difference last season between 5th and 9th was 6 points, so I see us fitting in that mini-bracket of sneaking in/just missing out. It's probably going to come down to a few stolen/dropped points in a couple of key games as to where we end up, but broadly, I am thinking more positively than not. Maybe that's just me - it just felt like, since NJ came in, we have turned a corner and he is the kind of manager these players needed. Even in the Pompey friendly last weekend, I was almost directly in line with him and he was absolutely losing it every time they even threatened our box. He has clearly made a point of focusing on our key frailty from last season of being far too weak at the back, and there are green shoots of progress starting to show through in the younger players and the ones he has brought in. I feel like he is getting buy in from the players and us as fans, and if we get off to a good start, I'm going to be really excited to be at The Valley every week. I feel like the soft underbelly we had is getting removed.
As for the squad, not having Alfie any more is a dumb, dumb move. Every neutral will point to that and I point to it too. No team with aspirations as we do should sell their ~20+ goal a season striker. However, all is not lost - I think our academy players look strong (e.g. TC bulking up and being strong, which I think NJ has directly impacted, plus Kanu just being Kanu and Anderson likely to keep doing his thing), the new striking options give us different dimensions and experience, and Leaburn/Aneke will supplement at different times. All the other signings all feel like they will fit in well, and we have broadly spent where we needed to. The only outlier for me is the GK, which is where I feel like we definitely missed out on one and we are rummaging in the loan market to find a good fit. I've never liked loan keepers as first choice, but maybe we will be OK with Mannion. It's the major remaining question mark for me. I don't think the way we play will require a player that "unlocks the door" in the way Fraser was supposed to - this team will work around high, physical press that attempts to force mistakes out of opposing players and punish them with the pace/quality of our wingbacks.
Like everything, good form needs to start at home, but I suspect that the start of our season (given the fixtures) will be both tight and tough affairs. We've got some real tricky fixtures first up, but if we get through them, there is points to be had through the winter games. As long as we are tough to beat and play against, we give ourselves a chance. I think we are set up to be a lot better defensively, but I certainly won't be complaining about the style of football if it yields results. Given the last couple of years, I just want us to be going into Feb/Mar looking at cementing out place in the playoffs and not writing ourselves off again.
It's going to be a tough season, but I'm hopeful for a decent one.
Nathan Jones Red & White Army…👍
Keep more clean sheets then one goal is enough.
It may not be pretty but if it's effective and gets us out of this league I don't think anyone will complain.
7th-12th would go down as another failed season for me.
I've got my own thoughts on what his username is.