Nathan Jones took 22 points from his opening 16 games. On that basis if he'd been in charge for the whole campaign we'd have ended up with 63 points and finished 12th, rather than 16th.
Taking the positives though: we had a 14 game unbeaten run and we avoided relegation to League Two. He also managed it with a massive and incoherent playing squad (we used 48 different players in all competitions) in a season where we had three different managers.
His tally, however, is lower than Dean Holden (24 points), Michael Appleton (23 points) and Nigel Adkins (23 points) over the same number of games. (In terms of "big impact" managers the best we've ever had is Johnnie Jackson (30 points) from his opening 16 matches in 2021. Lee Bowyer also took 27 from his first 16 in 2018).
I think for Nathan to do better next season, we need to get rid of many of the current squad and he needs greater control of the players the club signs in the summer...which inevitably will require a significant capital investment from the directors.
I hope this happens, but after 14 managers in the last 10 years, the Jury has to be out over whether it will or not.
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The jury regardless has to be patient this time around - The last couple of years, around this time of the season I've come on here saying we need to learn patience for once...
No Manager has lasted close to a full season since Bowyer got sacked, has one even last half a season in itself? - How are we supposed to build something with such a turnover? - We seem to panic when the slightest issue goes wrong (Sometimes rightfully with Appleton), but this isn't the Premier League... The EFL is almost wide open until the end, as shown by Lincoln and Doncaster this season, we wouldn't know though because we shit ourselves too easily.
My worry is in recent times, his team selection has worried me. REG has looked good to me , but wasn't selected , whereas he has a real blind spot with Anderson, who atm is just not good enough. Jones is our best centre half, but another who disappeared. Why play Fiorini in The last game?
All of this made no sense to me and cost us a few wins in the last 6 or so matches.
I agree with Anderson but jones had little options in the attacking midfield role
As for any overhype of Jones that's just the nature of football these days, lets look at Jones as an example at Luton he was lauded as one the most underrated managers in the country and destined for greater things then at Southampton (a job that made you realise how good Ralph Hussenhuttl must of been and anyone would have struggled) he was being mocked quite viciously. Youre only as good as your last fight i suppose.
All that said previously we have gone in to seasons with manager I've wanted gone or were ambivalent too (like Holden) and for the first time in a while I can honestly say there isn't a manager (we could realistically get in) that id prefer to be in charge of us.
Is he the messiah? Who knows yet, but there are probably only a handful of managers that we could have got and would actually want to come that would have got us out of that situation. Even the "best" managers would struggle in that situation. He's had a slightly better than expected start by keeping us up and bringing performances out of a couple of players that were unexpected. For now, that's just it - it was an expected level of a club with a budget and infrastructure of our size. The squad is, as he has already said after the Wycombe game, one in dire need of improvement. It was inherited and not one you can fairly judge him on. He's shown a level of nous at this level that you need - taking Anderson as an example, he's been used at the top end of the pitch to almost entirely pressure opposing players into making mistakes and misplacing passes. It's a level of knowledge from seeing the players, playing into their strengths and getting some results. It's not spectacular football, but it absolutely does the job when you lack a player to unlock defenses.
Even with a decent amount of results, it's still going to take time to bed them in. We NEED some stability in the manager role and we need to be patient for once. Short of being in the same situation that MA was, NJ needs to be trusted and backed to ensure he can build a squad in his image and style. I'm hopeful of a good, strong start next season with a close to brand new defense. That said, we just need to be more resilient and fix the big issues first, then we can start to look to string results together and have our eyes on the playoffs as a target.
He may or he may not be the one. I'm on the side of believing there are probably few men better who realistically would want the job. We all need to be patient because I really believe he'll put everything into making the summer as good as it can be. Trust the process and, I think, good things can happen with some time.
Automatic promotion next season is very very unlikely IMO even if Jones is given a blank chequebook and full control but I think that a string of underwhelming draws/losses is also improbable. At the very least we need to see a cohesive squad tailored to a specific vision.
He'll then just shrug & get on with it until it starts to go pear shaped by the autumn, at which point he'll either leave or be sacked.
My bet is that by the January window we will have a new manager wanting new players & everyone on here will be saying " you can't judge him until he gets in the players he wants...."
And the merry go round will continue.
Suffice to say I've not seen anything over the past 3 months that says he is any better or worse than any other manager we've had since Powell. Yes, he's had to play with the cards he's been dealt, but there has not been any major improvement in playing style or anything you can point to to say "ah, that's new/different/better". No change in tactics (unless you include subbing the golden boot winner at half time) or set pieces (unless you include making the golden boot winner take long throws & corners).
In fact if he had lost 8 & won 8 of his 16 games we would have had 2 more points. And his win percentage would have been so much better.
Apart from that he's done a wonderful job. Reminds me, I must get my Pro Licence sorted out, so I can play 3 left backs in the same team. Or maybe I'll just play rush goalie instead.
How many new faces appear and how much they cost are consequences of the objective to build a squad equipped to challenge for promotion. 12-14 needed you say? Well if Jones has said he wants more new players then he can field to start a game, then I think you may be right, but I think that's being unrealistic.
If he’s properly backed in the transfer market (and that’s still a big “if”) then playoffs, at a minimum, is his target for next season.
Dobson and Anderson.
McGrandles and Fraser got on the scoresheet too but were unavailable to Jones. I think Bakinson may have got one too (Cheltenham away maybe?), but his shooting was dinking shots well over the bar almost every other time.