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Strength of Schedule (SOS) & Strength of Victory (SOV)

edited August 30 in General Charlton
Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory' number. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

To calculate Charlton's SOV, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later. (Now posted below)



Edit to add:

SOS (29/08/22):



SOV (29/08/22):


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Comments

  • I've got a headache
  • Visions of Johnny Ball now on BBC One 
  • Seriously though will be interesting to see. Are you going to keep it updated? Should be more relevant a bit further into the season.
  • edited August 29

    Living by Numbers - New Musik.
  • 1 times 2 is 2
    2 times 2 is 4

    🤷‍♂️
  • I’m not sure what this is, but it interests me. 
  • Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Fascinating, but you've left off the conclusion.
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  • I’m not sure what this is, but it interests me. 
    I'm not sure what this and it definitely doesn't interest me.
  • Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Is the SOV measure "at the time" or on final league positions/points?
  • Accy and wycombe with easy starts to their season… obviously 
  • edited August 29
    Cafc43v3r said:
    Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Is the SOV measure "at the time" or on final league positions/points?
    It'll be the latter because that's the way they do it for the American sports I'm basing this off. So what might be considered a weak team now, could become a strong team after a run of form.

    I can see the benefit in doing "at the time" calculations but that adds another layer of complexity to the process that adds time and I'm not aware of an easy excel formula that could save me...
  • edited August 29
    Accy and wycombe with easy starts to their season… obviously 
    Teams that Accrington have faced have 7 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats.

    Teams that Wycombe have faced have 9 wins, 12 draws and 15 defeats.


    By contrast, Charlton have faced teams with 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats.

    It's easy to tell from those figures that Charlton have had harder matches so far, the SOS/SOV numbers just quantifies everything with a score between 0 and 1.
  • Cafc43v3r said:
    Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Is the SOV measure "at the time" or on final league positions/points?
    It'll be the latter because that's the way they do it for the American sports I'm basing this off. So what might be considered a weak team now, could become a strong team after a run of form.

    I can see the benefit in doing "at the time" calculations but that adds another layer of complexity to the process that adds time and I'm not aware of an easy excel formula that could save me...
    So the SOV will pretty much mirror the final league table then?   It might split teams with in 3 or 4 points of each other in a slightly different way buy I can't see it being meaningfully different.
  • Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Nice work - look forward to seeing the tables 
  • Seems a bit of a false stats to me. Teams go through hot and cold streaks, injuries, suspensions etc. that skew results, especially this early in the season.

    I'm not anti stats but, for this one, I have to be honest, I prefer the old cliché - "there are no easy games", because it is largely true.
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  • seth plum said:
    Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Fascinating, but you've left off the conclusion.
    SOS been posted now, and added to the first post. :-)

    Will work on SOV in a bit.
  • seth plum said:
    Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Fascinating, but you've left off the conclusion.
    SOS been posted now, and added to the first post. :-)

    Will work on SOV in a bit.
    Oh you lil tease.
  • edited August 29
    seth plum said:
    Lots of back and forth about how hard/easy we've had it so far this season, so I wanted to build a SOS/SOV picture (based on an NFL/american sports stat) which looks at your opponents win-draw-loss records to build an overall picture of how strong your 'schedule' has been, while taking only the records of the teams you have beaten to create a 'strength of victory number'. The quirk with this stat is that after an entire season, everyone's SOS will be the same. But during a season, it can help to determine who's played the most difficult teams.

    For example, with Charlton, our opponents so far have been: Accrington, Derby, Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Cambridge and Wycombe.

    These six teams have 17 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses across a total of 35 games played.

    To calculate Charlton's SOS: a win is worth 1, a draw is worth half and a loss is worth zero, divided by the overall total of games.

    17+(9/2)+(9 times 0) / 35 = 0.614 SOS

    To calculate Charlton's SOS, we take only the teams we have beaten (Derby & Plymouth) who have seven wins, two draws and three losses across 12 games.

    7+(2/2)+(3 times 0) / 12 = 0.666 SOV



    I'm working on building SOS and SOV tables and will post them later.
    Fascinating, but you've left off the conclusion.
    SOS been posted now, and added to the first post. :-)

    Will work on SOV in a bit.
    Oh you lil tease.
    Ha!

    Well while you're waiting it's interesting to note already that we have a higher SOV score than SOS. That's not so common although definitely possible with a smaller sample.

    It's a numerical measure showing that the wins we've picked up so far are against harder opponents. Which obviously makes sense when both Derby and Plymouth are top six while Accrington and Wycombe are 11th and 12th.

    The question then becomes did we over perform against Derby and Plymouth or did we underperform in other games? Or could it be both?

    The sample is too small at the moment to make solid conclusions either way but it's still interesting to see the picture forming nonetheless.
  • edited August 29
    Here's the SOV table:



    This one doesn't say a massive amount when teams have only won 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 games. Fleetwood, for example, are as high as they are at this stage because their only win came against Plymouth who have won 4/6 games. There is a lot of bunching that will disperse over the season with more data in the mix.

    Charlton and Fleetwood share top spot with a 0.667 score. Morecambe and Burton share 0.000 scores as both have yet to win a game.
  • We are top of the league, say we are top of the league!
  • Fair play for doing this as I'm sure it's taken some time, but fuck me you need to get out more mate.
  • This is really interesting, thanks for pulling together.
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