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Cash out bets

One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
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  • And also @bobmunro, where’s the odds for Saturdays Coventry v Blackburn game as I have beat the bookie punters waiting to throw their virtual tenners away.
  • One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
    My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
    I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
    Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
    I have been wondering about this all season. Most of my wins (four decent ones) have come from cashing out and, as a result, I think their algorithm (I am a happy Bet365 customer) does take some view of your betting history in adjusting the cashout odds. I have a mate with whom we compare and follow bets and he has been surprised (and disappointed) at what I have been offered recently to cashout. I had never thought of us both doing the same bet - will try that. The other great thing from Bet365 is their early payout if your side goes two goals ahead. This has been positive for me and landed my most recent acca which included Wolves beating Leeds (lead 2-0 but lost 3-2), although I held out and won that without cashing out.



  • I'd imagine the more you cash out the lower the offers become as they predict you're still likely to take it.
  • I very much doubt it changes per customer, only one way to try is both putting the same bet on. 

    All algorithms, stats based imo 
  • One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
    My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
    I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
    Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
    I have been wondering about this all season. Most of my wins (four decent ones) have come from cashing out and, as a result, I think their algorithm (I am a happy Bet365 customer) does take some view of your betting history in adjusting the cashout odds. I have a mate with whom we compare and follow bets and he has been surprised (and disappointed) at what I have been offered recently to cashout. I had never thought of us both doing the same bet - will try that. The other great thing from Bet365 is their early payout if your side goes two goals ahead. This has been positive for me and landed my most recent acca which included Wolves beating Leeds (lead 2-0 but lost 3-2), although I held out and won that without cashing out.



    Early payout, has saved me a few times this season lol 

    I rarely cash out, unless its like a few minutes and a few pounds difference. Just personally more of a gambler punter and feel its in the bookies favour mostly and a bit too low. 
  • I think the main thing about cashout bets is you pay the "spread" twice (happy to be corrected on this)

    As an example, if you are betting on a coin toss, you don't get 1/1 odds, you are more likely to get 45/100.

    If you then cash in, I think you then pay the "spread" again, so you will get 45/100 odds twice on that same coin toss (although this is the other side of the bet) so you could end up guaranteeing £90 on a £100 bet. 
  • My dad and I both bet on football and a few weeks ago amazingly had done the same accumulator on four games, both for a fiver!
    So from actual experience i can confirm (maybe) randomly, his bet had a lower cash out than mine at all points, and he is a serial cash outer and i'm not!!
  • Not material really (couple of quid)
  • edited March 2022
    Huskaris said:
    I think the main thing about cashout bets is you pay the "spread" twice (happy to be corrected on this)

    As an example, if you are betting on a coin toss, you don't get 1/1 odds, you are more likely to get 45/100.

    If you then cash in, I think you then pay the "spread" again, so you will get 45/100 odds twice on that same coin toss (although this is the other side of the bet) so you could end up guaranteeing £90 on a £100 bet. 
    I think this is spot on. It's easy enough to work out how much the bookie is taking when you compare with the current in play odds for the same result, generally around 8-9% worse for cashing out, from memory.

    I do use cash out sometimes. But it can really mess with your head.
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  • bobmunro said:
    One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
    My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
    I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
    Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
    Hands up that I don't know for sure, but I would be amazed if that were the case. The cash-out offer is generated by an algorithm and linking that to an individual's betting pattern/performance resulting in a unique and personalised cash-out amount would be incredibly difficult.

    BTW cash-out is generally more profitable for bookmakers than letting the bet run. 
    Definitely. I accidentally placed a bet twice at Cheltenham. Realised straight away and went to cash out but I was only being offered around 90% of the stake, the price hadn't moved as it was literally 1 minute since I'd placed it. 

    If you've got the funds and a Betfair/Smarkets account it's usually more worthwhile to lay your bet than cash out. Also gives you the option of partially laying with extra profit if the bet still wins. Appreciate that's not always possible if it's a live acca. 
  • My dad and I both bet on football and a few weeks ago amazingly had done the same accumulator on four games, both for a fiver!
    So from actual experience i can confirm (maybe) randomly, his bet had a lower cash out than mine at all points, and he is a serial cash outer and i'm not!!
    Same site aswell? I would have thought the cash out was worked out by looking at the live odds on how much it would cost to 'cover' the bet.
  • I've put on accumulators that have actually gone up (i'm talking pence here nothing world changing) before kick offs. E.g a £1 bet that goes up to like £1.20 on the cash out option - I assumed it was something to do with what other punters are backing effecting the odds in my favour ever so slightly? 

    Although as soon as the games kick off it always shoots down to like 60% of the original stake on the cash out option. 
  • My dad and I both bet on football and a few weeks ago amazingly had done the same accumulator on four games, both for a fiver!
    So from actual experience i can confirm (maybe) randomly, his bet had a lower cash out than mine at all points, and he is a serial cash outer and i'm not!!
    The algorithms are of course based on current status and time left - time being the operative word. They change constantly so unless you and your dad requested cash-out at precisely the same time (and I mean precisely) then it would be inevitable there would be some difference in the cash-out quote - you say it was only a couple of quid difference and that could be due to there being just a few seconds between requests.   
  • bobmunro said:
    One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
    My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
    I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
    Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
    Hands up that I don't know for sure, but I would be amazed if that were the case. The cash-out offer is generated by an algorithm and linking that to an individual's betting pattern/performance resulting in a unique and personalised cash-out amount would be incredibly difficult.

    BTW cash-out is generally more profitable for bookmakers than letting the bet run. 
    Definitely. I accidentally placed a bet twice at Cheltenham. Realised straight away and went to cash out but I was only being offered around 90% of the stake, the price hadn't moved as it was literally 1 minute since I'd placed it. 

    If you've got the funds and a Betfair/Smarkets account it's usually more worthwhile to lay your bet than cash out. Also gives you the option of partially laying with extra profit if the bet still wins. Appreciate that's not always possible if it's a live acca. 

    You would have been better to call or live chat. Explain you placed the bet twice in error - and they would have voided the second bet with a full refund if it was clear it was in error and the price hadn't changed.
  • This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
  • seth plum said:
    This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
    Cash-outs can generally be favourable if you do it at the right time. There are certain times or if watching a game where cashout might look the better option. I agree, i 99% let it play out, however equally as its in the bookies favour, if i feel its a decent figure given whatever the situation is. It's not always about if you can afford the hit, just using basic logic of how the game has played out, or if you have a 6fold and only 1 goal cushion and you are not confident it can be handy, 
  • seth plum said:
    This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
    I can think of a few scenarios where I have used the cash out option - here's one to consider- say with 15 minutes to go, you have a 6 or 7 fold accumulator, you've staked a quid  - odds if you win 150-1 - in all games your picks are winning except one, the cash out is for £60. 

    In that scenario is it better to take £59 profit or risk it for the possibility of winning another £90 or potentially nothing at all? 

    That's where the fun comes into gambling for me, sometimes i'll take the £59 profit and get myself a take away and a few beers, sometimes i'll push it to the end. It's not really even about the money, but the excitement for me comes from trying to get the best possible result and "beat" the bookie.

    "Guilt" or regret do not come into it, it just adds another facet to the experience having that cash out option (and yes I'm aware that cash outs are better for the bookie than the punter in the long term) 
  • edited March 2022
    ….all I know is that I’m glad I cashed out my sizeable bet on Charlton finishing in the top half a while back. Sure, 3 wins in the bounce seems to give us a fighting chance of still making 12th spot but it is certainly not the ‘licence to print money’ I thought it was at the start of the season. As for me, I enjoy the speculative nature of placing bets in areas that interest me and of which I have a little informed knowledge. The key is NEVER to bet more than you can afford to lose AND never to chase losses.

    My track record of cashing out is abysmal. I’ve probably cashed out 10 times and probably been wrong to have done so on at least 8 of them - to the bookies’ delight. On that basis, a top half finish for CAFC looks good value at 5/2 at the moment. ……just saying!
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  • edited March 2022
    By the way, on the question in point, I would of course bow to @bobmunro's greater knowledge, but I can't believe that the cash out offers don't factor in how likely the punter is to take the offer, based on their previous history.  All of the relevant info will be known to the betting company already.

    Maybe the algorithms aren't that sophisticated - yet - but it's only a matter of time.
  • bobmunro said:
    bobmunro said:
    One for @bobmunro or anyone else who knows.
    My mate keeps on saying he’s being hard done by when being offered cash out. He’s convinced other punters would be offered more.
    I said I think it’s an algorithm using the relevant live markets so would be the same for all punters.
    Short of us both doing the same bet, can anyone say whether cash out offers are tailored considering the particular punters history?
    Hands up that I don't know for sure, but I would be amazed if that were the case. The cash-out offer is generated by an algorithm and linking that to an individual's betting pattern/performance resulting in a unique and personalised cash-out amount would be incredibly difficult.

    BTW cash-out is generally more profitable for bookmakers than letting the bet run. 
    Definitely. I accidentally placed a bet twice at Cheltenham. Realised straight away and went to cash out but I was only being offered around 90% of the stake, the price hadn't moved as it was literally 1 minute since I'd placed it. 

    If you've got the funds and a Betfair/Smarkets account it's usually more worthwhile to lay your bet than cash out. Also gives you the option of partially laying with extra profit if the bet still wins. Appreciate that's not always possible if it's a live acca. 

    You would have been better to call or live chat. Explain you placed the bet twice in error - and they would have voided the second bet with a full refund if it was clear it was in error and the price hadn't changed.
    Yeah done that in the past but was busy and was easier to lay the bet for most of my stake back. My point was just that the cash out was less than stake immediately after placing which is a little surprising. 
  • I used to work with someone who has become one of the most successful golf traders in the world. He moved to the US a decade ago.

    In 2014 he stood to win six figures on Martin Kaymer in the Abu Dhabi Championship. Kaymer was 10 shots in front during the final round but that was reduced to 6 at the turn. Kaymer was still 1.01 (1/100) to lay but it never occurred once to him to lay off. The rest is history. I asked him why he didn't lay off and his answer was quite simple. 1.01 was the wrong price. He took that "loss" with admirable stoicism (wouldn't have been how I would have reacted) because, in the long run, he trusted his judgement and that giving back profit would only cost him.

      
  • Off_it said:
    By the way, on the question in point, I would of course bow to @bobmunro's greater knowledge, but I can't believe that the cash out offers don't factor in how likely the punter is to take the offer, based on their previous history.  All of the relevant info will be known to the betting company already.

    Maybe the algorithms aren't that sophisticated - yet - but it's only a matter of time.
    They are very sophisticated and as I said, I don't know if they factor in anything about the customer rather than just the calculation based on liability hedging (both ways) on the outcome of a particular bet. 

    However, if you bare in mind that cash-out is in the bookmakers favour from an overall margin perspective then why would they either want to disincentivise a rare cash-out punter or punish a regular cash-out punter? I would suggest there is equal motivation from a bookmaker to encourage cash-out across the board. 
  • Off_it said:
    bobmunro said:
    seth plum said:
    This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
    A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, Seth - and this thread about using the cash-out facility has bugger all to do with the rights and wrongs of gambling.
    Brace yourself for the endless posts trying to justify why his post taking the thread off at a tangent isn't actually taking the thread off at a tangent at all - which in themselves will be taking the thread off at a tangent. And repeat, ad nauseum.
    Stalker alert.
  • I used to work with someone who has become one of the most successful golf traders in the world. He moved to the US a decade ago.

    In 2014 he stood to win six figures on Martin Kaymer in the Abu Dhabi Championship. Kaymer was 10 shots in front during the final round but that was reduced to 6 at the turn. Kaymer was still 1.01 (1/100) to lay but it never occurred once to him to lay off. The rest is history. I asked him why he didn't lay off and his answer was quite simple. 1.01 was the wrong price. He took that "loss" with admirable stoicism (wouldn't have been how I would have reacted) because, in the long run, he trusted his judgement and that giving back profit would only cost him.

      
    That's part of the fun - let it run, I trust my judgement! With someone who has that level of golf betting knowledge they are more likely to take that view - but a small insurance premium to lock in profit can of course be very wise. A good 'Trader' rather than a top 'Golf Trader' would have laid off.
  • seth plum said:
    This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
    Not necessarily. What if someone places a £5 acca on a few footie matches for £100,000 return. In the 80th minute all are winning but a couple by the odd goal. The cash out is £40,000, do you really want to be losing out on such a huge payout with a late goal against you? It's a tricky call because you could cash out, they all win and you've missed out on £60,000. Or in other accumulators circumstances could change like the ground changing unfavourably towards one of your horses or you find out a team is resting players. 
  • seth plum said:
    This is all hard to understand.
    People gamble money on what they predict or think or guess will happen in the future.
    The objective is to be right, and then feel good about themselves if their prediction turns out to be true.
    But they sometimes doubt themselves and don’t believe they are as good as they thought, so they withdraw their money from the gamble.
    Where is the feel good factor then?
    Unless there is something like they have gambled the family’s weekly Universal Credit and want to get the money back before it all goes.
    They say when the fun stops, stop. But is there any actual fun? It sounds like worry and stress, and possibly guilt that drives the gamblers to change their mind in this way.
    Are the beneficiaries the gambling companies, where their business objective is to remove enough money from others so they can live on the interest of the interest.
    Gambling has always been around, and I can see the attraction, even indulged from time to time, but the downsides seem to outweigh the ‘fun’.
    When they had quiz machines in pubs it was something I liked because it didn’t depend on guessing the future, but using knowledge accumulated from the past.
    Not necessarily. What if someone places a £5 acca on a few footie matches for £100,000 return. In the 80th minute all are winning but a couple by the odd goal. The cash out is £40,000, do you really want to be losing out on such a huge payout with a late goal against you? It's a tricky call because you could cash out, they all win and you've missed out on £60,000. Or in other accumulators circumstances could change like the ground changing unfavourably towards one of your horses or you find out a team is resting players. 
    Seth commented on something that he admitted was 'hard to understand' and then applied what would appear some thinly veiled agenda to opine on something totally unrelated to the thread topic. 

    I haven't got any issues at all with people questioning the morality of gambling - sometimes (unsurprisingly) I will defend, at other times I will agree. This isn't really the purpose of this thread though.
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