OK. There are people better qualified to do this than me, but here goes.
Assuming that Franchise, with only 2 games left and on 64 points are out of the running...Blackpool have to fancy themselves to take Oxfords spot with 2 games in hand and the same points currently, and a good chance that Portsmouth will hope to get the one point to take the next spot, ;leaving Oxford in 7th. If we can't make up 2 points on Blackpool over the 4 games we both have that leaves us needing a win in our game in hand over Portsmouth to take the number 6 spot, assuming that we can get the 3 points needed from 2 games to also overtake Oxford. As I understand it those are the raw numbers and I'm not even going into GD, though it is looking like there is a good chance it may come down to that, in which case we may be in trouble.
Do any of you
chronic obsessives valued statistically-minded members of CL have any insights to share?
Comments
Blackpool, 4 games left (last 4 games = 4 points)
Portsmouth, 3 games left (last 3 games = 3 points)
Charlton, 4 games left (last 4 games = 7 points)
If (even if unlikely) this form remains the same for the remaining games, the table will finish as below:
5th Charlton 73 points
6th Blackpool 72 points
7th Oxford 71 points
8th Portsmouth 71 points
After today's games, the simulations indicate that there is a 60% chance of a Play-Off place with 73 points.
With 74 points, the probability increases to 79%. And, at 75 points, there is a 95% chance.
Two wins and a draw in our final four games might be enough.
3rd Sunderland
4th Lincoln
5th Us
6th Blackpool
It will be a good test for the failed ESL as 3 Charlton Lincoln games and 4 Blackpool Sunderland games in a month, with the usual final.
Tuesday is VERY BIG. We have Crewe - Blackpool have Sunderland. We win & they lose - all good. We dont win & they dont lose - bad. Then we have Lincoln the following week. Both of these games for us are at home where we have been dire. Win them both (very unlikely imo) then we will be in prime position.
I predict it will go all the way & the Lincoln match will be crucial. I've been saying for weeks that we will need 75 points. Oxford can only get 74. We then need Pompey not to pick up maximum points, but even then 2 wins & a draw for them gives them 75 points and a better GD. We might even need 76 points unless we can win the 3 games by more than Pompey win theirs. You may find that Aneke's miss on Tuesday could prove very costly - which is a weird thing to say after winning 6-0 !!
Win at Crewe or sit back and wait for next season I guess...
Yeah it goes:
Goal difference
If by some miracle two teams still can't be separated after all that then there is a playoff game when the league position of the two teams has an impact on promotion / relegation
Also hoping Lincoln get the win against Shrewsbury on Tuesday as well as that solidifies their place and they may step off the gas a bit
Sometimes it's better to play a team who are safe & are (metaphorically) on the beach - like Plymouth last tuesday.
Hard one to call re Lincoln but by then I'm hoping a few things will be a bit more certain, especially if we win our next 2 & Pompey, Blackpool & Oxford dont win theirs.
Shrewsbury (A)
Burton (H)
Blackpool:
Sunderland (A)
Northampton (A)
Doncaster (H)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Portsmouth:
Accrington (A)
Wimbledon (A)
Accrington (H)
Charlton:
Crewe (H)
Accrington (A)
Lincoln (H)
Hull (H)
we’re doomed I tell thee
Will all hang on our game against Lincoln, which is our game in hand over Pompey & if won will take us above Oxford as well (assuming we arent already).