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The Run-in
Wheresmeticket
Posts: 17,304
OK. There are people better qualified to do this than me, but here goes.
Assuming that Franchise, with only 2 games left and on 64 points are out of the running...Blackpool have to fancy themselves to take Oxfords spot with 2 games in hand and the same points currently, and a good chance that Portsmouth will hope to get the one point to take the next spot, ;leaving Oxford in 7th. If we can't make up 2 points on Blackpool over the 4 games we both have that leaves us needing a win in our game in hand over Portsmouth to take the number 6 spot, assuming that we can get the 3 points needed from 2 games to also overtake Oxford. As I understand it those are the raw numbers and I'm not even going into GD, though it is looking like there is a good chance it may come down to that, in which case we may be in trouble.
Do any of you chronic obsessives valued statistically-minded members of CL have any insights to share?
Assuming that Franchise, with only 2 games left and on 64 points are out of the running...Blackpool have to fancy themselves to take Oxfords spot with 2 games in hand and the same points currently, and a good chance that Portsmouth will hope to get the one point to take the next spot, ;leaving Oxford in 7th. If we can't make up 2 points on Blackpool over the 4 games we both have that leaves us needing a win in our game in hand over Portsmouth to take the number 6 spot, assuming that we can get the 3 points needed from 2 games to also overtake Oxford. As I understand it those are the raw numbers and I'm not even going into GD, though it is looking like there is a good chance it may come down to that, in which case we may be in trouble.
Do any of you chronic obsessives valued statistically-minded members of CL have any insights to share?
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Yeah, on our last run in to the play offs, we lost an important game at Oxford, but bounced back. But that was a better team. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel this is like the run in on Bowyers first matches in charge, where we got into the play offs, but got beaten by Shrewsbury. But we may have more about us than that Bowyer team.2
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Just going on current form, it’s looking good, but very close.Oxford, 2 games left (last 2 games = 3 points)
Blackpool, 4 games left (last 4 games = 4 points)
Portsmouth, 3 games left (last 3 games = 3 points)
Charlton, 4 games left (last 4 games = 7 points)
If (even if unlikely) this form remains the same for the remaining games, the table will finish as below:
5th Charlton 73 points
6th Blackpool 72 points
7th Oxford 71 points
8th Portsmouth 71 points2 -
I like the look of those stats.stoneroses19 said:Just going on current form, it’s looking good, but very close.Oxford, 2 games left (last 2 games = 3 points)
Blackpool, 4 games left (last 4 games = 4 points)
Portsmouth, 3 games left (last 3 games = 3 points)
Charlton, 4 games left (last 4 games = 7 points)
If (even if unlikely) this form remains the same for the remaining games, the table will finish as below:
5th Charlton 73 points
6th Blackpool 72 points
7th Oxford 71 points
8th Portsmouth 71 points0 -
From the Post-match thread:
After today's games, the simulations indicate that there is a 60% chance of a Play-Off place with 73 points.
With 74 points, the probability increases to 79%. And, at 75 points, there is a 95% chance.
Two wins and a draw in our final four games might be enough.
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I honestly think it will finish
3rd Sunderland
4th Lincoln
5th Us
6th Blackpool
It will be a good test for the failed ESL as 3 Charlton Lincoln games and 4 Blackpool Sunderland games in a month, with the usual final.2 -
Cant just go on current form to predict the last couple of games as teams might have had a couple of easy/hard games in the last few games. Need to look at who all the teams have got left & their home & away form.stoneroses19 said:Just going on current form, it’s looking good, but very close.Oxford, 2 games left (last 2 games = 3 points)
Blackpool, 4 games left (last 4 games = 4 points)
Portsmouth, 3 games left (last 3 games = 3 points)
Charlton, 4 games left (last 4 games = 7 points)
If (even if unlikely) this form remains the same for the remaining games, the table will finish as below:
5th Charlton 73 points
6th Blackpool 72 points
7th Oxford 71 points
8th Portsmouth 71 points
Tuesday is VERY BIG. We have Crewe - Blackpool have Sunderland. We win & they lose - all good. We dont win & they dont lose - bad. Then we have Lincoln the following week. Both of these games for us are at home where we have been dire. Win them both (very unlikely imo) then we will be in prime position.
I predict it will go all the way & the Lincoln match will be crucial. I've been saying for weeks that we will need 75 points. Oxford can only get 74. We then need Pompey not to pick up maximum points, but even then 2 wins & a draw for them gives them 75 points and a better GD. We might even need 76 points unless we can win the 3 games by more than Pompey win theirs. You may find that Aneke's miss on Tuesday could prove very costly - which is a weird thing to say after winning 6-0 !!3 -
Yes it was the current and longer form calculations with variables for equivalent form of opposition that finally decided me to make a thread and get someone else to do the heavy stat lifting....golfaddick said:
Cant just go on current form to predict the last couple of games as teams might have had a couple of easy/hard games in the last few games. Need to look at who all the teams have got left & their home & away form.stoneroses19 said:Just going on current form, it’s looking good, but very close.Oxford, 2 games left (last 2 games = 3 points)
Blackpool, 4 games left (last 4 games = 4 points)
Portsmouth, 3 games left (last 3 games = 3 points)
Charlton, 4 games left (last 4 games = 7 points)
If (even if unlikely) this form remains the same for the remaining games, the table will finish as below:
5th Charlton 73 points
6th Blackpool 72 points
7th Oxford 71 points
8th Portsmouth 71 points
Tuesday is VERY BIG. We have Crewe - Blackpool have Sunderland. We win & they lose - all good. We dont win & they dont lose - bad. Then we have Lincoln the following week. Both of these games for us are at home where we have been dire. Win them both (very unlikely imo) then we will be in prime position.
Win at Crewe or sit back and wait for next season I guess...0 -
presumably the next tie breaker after goal difference is goals scored? this could be important if we end up tied with Pompey, we're only 2 GD behind them but ahead by 4 on GS. it could potentially come down to these fine margins, the Plymouth result could prove to be vital0
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Have to win that Crewe game on Tuesday, if we don't it means we will need to win those Lincoln and Hull games, and I just can't see us doing that.5
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rina said:presumably the next tie breaker after goal difference is goals scored? this could be important if we end up tied with Pompey, we're only 2 GD behind them but ahead by 4 on GS. it could potentially come down to these fine margins, the Plymouth result could prove to be vital
Yeah it goes:
Goal differenceGoals scoredHead to head record, which takes into account points, then goal difference then goals scoredIf it's still a tie then it's away wins followed by goals scored in away games followed by disciplinary record
If by some miracle two teams still can't be separated after all that then there is a playoff game when the league position of the two teams has an impact on promotion / relegation0 - Sponsored links:
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Hull won't be easy if they are still going head to head with Peterborough for the title.0
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Hopefully Peterborough will lose against Doncaster in midweek theniaitch said:Hull won't be easy if they are still going head to head with Peterborough for the title.1 -
I am hoping desire plays a part against Crewe, their season is effectively over, no chance going up or down, we need wins now.
Also hoping Lincoln get the win against Shrewsbury on Tuesday as well as that solidifies their place and they may step off the gas a bit0 -
I think we will get enough points to make 5th from the remaining fixtures. Hopeful for 9 pts but will take 7 or 8. Players will finish strongly and I cant se us losing another game in the run in1
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Sometimes it's best to play against teams who have something to play for as they have to come out a bit more, attack & try to win the game - like us this coming week.Braziliance said:I am hoping desire plays a part against Crewe, their season is effectively over, no chance going up or down, we need wins now.
Also hoping Lincoln get the win against Shrewsbury on Tuesday as well as that solidifies their place and they may step off the gas a bit
Sometimes it's better to play a team who are safe & are (metaphorically) on the beach - like Plymouth last tuesday.
Hard one to call re Lincoln but by then I'm hoping a few things will be a bit more certain, especially if we win our next 2 & Pompey, Blackpool & Oxford dont win theirs.0 -
I think Pompey are out of it. They beat bottom club Bristol Rovers 1-0 Saturday. They had one shot on target, and not a single corner. Apparently Rovers were worth a point. Our biggest problem may well be goal difference, beating Crewe by 3 or 4 may well be worth 4 points. Oxford beat them 6-0, surely we can go for it and not play it safe.1
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Who has everyone got in the remaining fixtures0
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Oxford:oohaahmortimer said:Who has everyone got in the remaining fixtures
Shrewsbury (A)
Burton (H)
Blackpool:
Sunderland (A)
Northampton (A)
Doncaster (H)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Portsmouth:
Accrington (A)
Wimbledon (A)
Accrington (H)
Charlton:
Crewe (H)
Accrington (A)
Lincoln (H)
Hull (H)3 -
Don’t like them fixtures one bit
we’re doomed I tell thee0 -
In the words of Billy Ocean, when the going gets tough .... the tough gets going...https://youtu.be/-n3sUWR4FV4
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I'd rather Lincoln's four best players get sent off and the other seven pull a muscle.Braziliance said:I am hoping desire plays a part against Crewe, their season is effectively over, no chance going up or down, we need wins now.
Also hoping Lincoln get the win against Shrewsbury on Tuesday as well as that solidifies their place and they may step off the gas a bit5 -
Shame Accrington weren't still in the mix as they might have given Pompey a couple of tough games.
Will all hang on our game against Lincoln, which is our game in hand over Pompey & if won will take us above Oxford as well (assuming we arent already).0 -
Think we will blow it home form is poor and will continue to do so, can't see it changing.4
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I usually save this for Golfie, but...Chippycafc said:Think we will blow it home form is poor and will continue to do so, can't see it changing.
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Need to win both of our next games. If we manage that then I would hope that one win from two of the final ones should be enough. 🤞0
