I checked our possession statistics for this season. I ignored those games in which possession was fairly even; I defined this to be a gap of less than 10%, ie I ignored anything closer than 55:45 either way. That left 18 out of our 25 league games. Of these we had more possession in 10 games and less in the other 8. Then, comparing the average points earned in each category produced the following outcome:
More possession: average points per game = 1.3
Less possession: average points per game = 2.25
Extrapolating to a complete season of 46 games:
More possession: 60 points
Less possession: 104 points
Obviously the importance of possession depends on the team, but these numbers surprised me somewhat.
Comments
It would be interesting to know which team scored first in those games and how early the goal was. That can change the game and the way both teams play - I would imagine few teams in this league consistently play in a way that means they regularly dominate possession.
That’s also a reason I don’t agree with some of the negative views of our win over MK Dons. They have a very different style compared to most that we’ll come up against, most games won’t play out in the way that did.
We've fared better for some time when we have less possession.
Does this dispel another piece of football mythology?
By the way @sillav nitram ... playing football without a ball would be ridiculous.
That would be 'foot'.
I’ve been asked about other possible explanations for the much greater success we’ve had with less possession than the mere fact of less possession itself. In other words, perhaps there is another factor which is the underlying cause of both the greater success and less possession.
First @addick1956 asks about matches when we had less possession and none of Inniss, Famewo or Oshilaja were playing. These were the matches in which we had less possession:
Oxford, H, won 2-0, Inniss and Famewo played
Portsmouth, A, won 2-0, Famewo played
Fleetwood, H, won 3-2, Inniss played
Ipswich, A, won 2-0, none played
MK Dons, H, lost 1-0, none started, Famewo a sub
Bristol Rovers, A, won 1-0, Oshilaja played
Peterboro, A, lost 2-1, Oshilaja played
MK Dons, A, won 1-0, Oshilaja played
I can't see much of a pattern there.
I think that @Scoham could have the answer. He asks about instances of one team scoring first relatively early in a game, this possibly being a strong influence on possession statistics as the team that scores first is likely to have a tendency to get bodies behind the ball to defend that lead, thereby ceding possession. In our games this is exactly what has happened. I looked at matches where one team (either Charlton or the opposition) was ahead at half-time. This happened in 11 of the 18 matches where the final possession statistics were unequal (ie a gap greater than 55:45). In all 11 such matches the team leading at half-time ended up with less possession. It therefore seems that having less possession is not the cause of a likely favourable outcome; rather that scoring first is the cause of having less possession and also (not surprisingly) of a likely favourable outcome to the match.
You might say “I could have told you that”. If so, my apologies for wasting your time.
Is that Maddison v Williams?
Its league 1, the balls more dangerous in the other teams half, get it there quick.
3 draws and 6 wins. Of those 6 wins the team that scored 1st won all of them. So no one scored 1st and lost.
Only 2 of them had significantly more of the ball. No prize for guessing it was MK Dons (63%) and Oxford (64%).
The other 4 games were won with 41%, 49%, 30% and 42%. Of those 6 games the team with the highest % of the ball lost 1-0 at home.
I think I am right that in our 25 games the team that scored first has only lost once and the team that is winning at half time have lost twice?
Another random thought is we seem to concede far more goals as a direct result of giving the ball away than we score. Which I think is strange as we have better players than a lot of the other teams.
Not all possession is useful. Possession just for the sake of it may not be worth much. So ... are there different aspects of possession?
Liverpool's second goal today (it was a stunner) featured very little possession. Compare that to our pre-Christmas period where Pratley and Gunter pinged it across the back for about an hour per game ... but to no effect.
We have previously established (I hope) that not all goals are equal. And, while we would all agree that it is difficult to score a goal without the ball, is there 'effective' possession ... and 'neutral' possession?
I don't know who first dreamed up the idea of having a 'possession' stat, but they have a lot to answer for.