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Some stats

When in doubt, resort to Maths.

Not the most taxing analysis, I confess, but here are some interesting First Half/Second Half numbers that may be telling us something:

In the 21 League games played to date (after the Rochdale game - ten at home, eleven away), our First Half record is ... P21 W4 D9 L8 F14 A17 Pts21

Second Half record ... P21 W9 D6 L6 F19 A11 Pts33.

Now ... I'm not sure what we can conclude from this, but I'll take a punt.  I would welcome other interpretations.

My take ... generally Bowyer gets it wrong at the start.  We only lead at half-time about 20% of the time, whereas we trail almost 40% of the time.  We are a relegation side in the First Half. 

Things improve after the interval (and, presumably after some substitutions).  With this form (33 points in 21 Second Halves) we can look forward to a Play-Off spot (just about).

What does this tell us?  Maybe Bowyer is a reactive manager?  Maybe our better players cannot be risked from the start?  I did find it amusing, I must confess, that our defeat at Hull City was attributed to the fact that they didn't play Wilkes on the wing, like we expected.

The most significant point, in my mind at least, is that good teams ... promotion teams ... impose themselves on the opposition.  They boss they game, they get in front, and then see the game out.  It's rare to win the League by repeatedly coming back from a deficit.

I'll leave it there ... but ... Lee ... if you want my advice ... pick a starting line-up that has a chance of dictating play.  Pick your best players.  Forget about 'managing' their physical frailties.  Get 1-0 up ... get 2-0 up ... and then bring on your workhorses to preserve the win. 

Comments

  • Dave Rudd said:
    When in doubt, resort to Maths.

    Not the most taxing analysis, I confess, but here are some interesting First Half/Second Half numbers that may be telling us something:

    In the 21 League games played to date (after the Rochdale game - ten at home, eleven away), our First Half record is ... P21 W4 D9 L8 F14 A17 Pts21

    Second Half record ... P21 W9 D6 L6 F19 A11 Pts33.

    Now ... I'm not sure what we can conclude from this, but I'll take a punt.  I would welcome other interpretations.

    My take ... generally Bowyer gets it wrong at the start.  We only lead at half-time about 20% of the time, whereas we trail almost 40% of the time.  We are a relegation side in the First Half. 

    Things improve after the interval (and, presumably after some substitutions).  With this form (33 points in 21 Second Halves) we can look forward to a Play-Off spot (just about).

    What does this tell us?  Maybe Bowyer is a reactive manager?  Maybe our better players cannot be risked from the start?  I did find it amusing, I must confess, that our defeat at Hull City was attributed to the fact that they didn't play Wilkes on the wing, like we expected.

    The most significant point, in my mind at least, is that good teams ... promotion teams ... impose themselves on the opposition.  They boss they game, they get in front, and then see the game out.  It's rare to win the League by repeatedly coming back from a deficit.

    I'll leave it there ... but ... Lee ... if you want my advice ... pick a starting line-up that has a chance of dictating play.  Pick your best players.  Forget about 'managing' their physical frailties.  Get 1-0 up ... get 2-0 up ... and then bring on your workhorses to preserve the win. 
    And to add to that......we all know the stat about if we go 1-0 down. Again tonight we could not turn it around into a win. Conversely, we hardly ever lose if we score first.

    So, just looking at the stats since the play  off final we need to go all out in the first half & score the first goal. If we do that we will win far far more than we lose. Let in the first goal & we are very lucky to get a point. Stats don't tell you everything but by golly over the past 67 games they don't half tell you something. 
  • Never would have guessed we are stronger the second half. If it is true we are essentially a relegation side in the first half, and we know we are terrible the last few minutes in terms of holding leads, then in the minutes between 45 and 85 we must be running away with the division!
  • As someone once said, “It’s a game of two halves.”
  • Yet we have only turned round a half time deficit once. 

    Stating the obvious but the longer we are in a game the much more chance we have of winning it or at least getting a draw.

    I think the last 11 have been 5 draws 4 defeats and 2 wins.  Keeping 1 clean sheet.

    That's not good enough.  In those 11 games we have let in at least 2 on 7 occasions, including 4 twice.  To Dale and Burton. After the MK Don's game it should have been back to basics and clean sheets.

    It's the 5 draws that have killed us recently because we should have won at least 3 of them if it wasn't for questionable team selections, tactics and subs. 
  • Well I expect Chuks playing a lot of 2nd halves will have something to do with that.
    And Bowyer changing formations & subs at half time.
  • edited January 13
    I wouldn’t rely on hackneyed stats and do some independent thinking Dave... :-)

    There are loads of potential reasons behind this. For example, we’ve been balancing an unfit squad so have weighted our team selections to see us stronger for the final third of a game, other teams raise their game for a fast start against us that can’t be sustained, other teams are more physically imposing than us so we come into our strength once the game stretches out etc.. If you wanted to put out a really supportive angle you could say that from a stat perspective Bowyer is tactically astute in making changes intra game that yield positive results, and that the squad togetherness is there to not accept defeat.

    MK Dons are even more pronounced than us. Is their manager similarly getting it wrong?

    All that really matters is where things stand at the final whistle. I’d actually rather those tables be that way round than the other way. 
  • It's who we've played and how we've played in those last 11 games which is the concern.

    Constant tinkering with the side, negative tactics inviting crap teams on to equalise late and square pegs in round holes.

    An average manager would have Doubled that points tally with this squad. As I said last year before Xmas about us going down, the fan base need to wake up and smell the coffee. A managerial change, however sad, is needed. 
  • 1. Lee Bowyer is the worst Manager in the division, as his squad is good enough to get better results than his first half performance shows.  This means other managers are better able to set their teams up against Charlton than he is against theirs. 

    2. Lee Bowyer is the best Manager in the division, as he able to react to negative positions with tactically astute positional and personnel changes.  

    In short, these stats tell you what you want to be told.  

    (It doesn't mean they're not interesting though).
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  • Fascinating that Plymouth are the best 1st half team, but terrible in the second half. When teams "fade" in the second half, I tend to wonder how good their fitness is
  • Btw, last season was the reverse. We were 12th in the 1st half table, yet 24th in the 2nd half table.

    Indeed, if you look at just our home games we were 6th for 1st half and 24th for 2nd half
  • edited January 13
    I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
  • I wouldn’t rely on hackneyed stats and do some independent thinking Dave... :-)

    There are loads of potential reasons behind this. For example, we’ve been balancing an unfit squad so have weighted our team selections to see us stronger for the final third of a game, other teams raise their game for a fast start against us that can’t be sustained, other teams are more physically imposing than us so we come into our strength once the game stretches out etc.. If you wanted to put out a really supportive angle you could say that from a stat perspective Bowyer is tactically astute in making changes intra game that yield positive results, and that the squad togetherness is there to not accept defeat.

    MK Dons are even more pronounced than us. Is their manager similarly getting it wrong?

    All that really matters is where things stand at the final whistle. I’d actually rather those tables be that way round than the other way. 
    It's good that we're getting different interpretations from the data presented ... and, yes, there are all manner of factors which contribute to the numbers.

    Of course, it's the score at the end of the game that counts ... but the more you can do to engineer the right result, the better.

    Our poor First Half showing (and, yes, I do think that MK Dons have similar problems) means that Bowyer has to make improvements or repair the damage on a regular basis.  It reminds me of Sol Campbell in his playing days ... very good at rectifying a bad situation which his own error had previously created.

    Much better to avoid the problems in the first place.  That is how successful teams operate.
  • I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    We were 2-1 down to Wimbledon when we beat them 5-2 last month
  • I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    We were 2-1 down to Wimbledon when we beat them 5-2 last month
    But we didn't go 1-0 down. 
  • I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    I think it is, I mentioned the same on another thread. 
  • Dazzler21 said:
    I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    We were 2-1 down to Wimbledon when we beat them 5-2 last month
    But we didn't go 1-0 down. 
    The post I was replying to never mentioned 1-0 down, just said 'from a losing position'
  • I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    It is factually correct that the play-off final is the last match we have turned around a 1-0 deficit......surely you all know this as I bang on about it every game we let in the first goal. I don't know the actual figures but I think it is now around 35 league games - out of 67 that we've played since beating Sunderland 2-1 at Wembley. 

    The figures I suspect are even worse if we are losing at half time - Wembley we managed to equalise before half time.

    It's true we turned around the Wimbledon match from a losing position at half time - but as a pp said, we went 1-0 up in that game.
  • So if it is fact that we haven't turned around a match when conceding the first goal , that suggests a weak mentality in the squad in this set of players, ie not enough ability, hearts and guts?
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  • edited January 14
    I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    It is factually correct that the play-off final is the last match we have turned around a 1-0 deficit......surely you all know this as I bang on about it every game we let in the first goal. I don't know the actual figures but I think it is now around 35 league games - out of 67 that we've played since beating Sunderland 2-1 at Wembley. 

    The figures I suspect are even worse if we are losing at half time - Wembley we managed to equalise before half time.

    It's true we turned around the Wimbledon match from a losing position at half time - but as a pp said, we went 1-0 up in that game.
    Luton at the Valley in 2018/19, before that AFC Wimbledon away in the same season

    That season we also came from a goal down to beat; Burton (A) | Plymouth (H) | Wycombe (H)

    But those first two games we were trailing 1-0 @ HT

    Been 71 League games since that Luton one
  • So if it is fact that we haven't turned around a match when conceding the first goal , that suggests a weak mentality in the squad in this set of players, ie not enough ability, hearts and guts?
    Or the squad is too weak/ramshackle to properly react, or the problem is in the team's management, or a combination of any/all. It suggests there IS a problem but little about what is causing it.

    More pressing to me is the frequency with which we go behind in the first place. And while injuries to the first choice defence do bear some responsibility, so too do some tactical choices.
  • Converting a half time deficit into a win is quite a rarity. I think it runs at about 3% of games. I suspect (but don't know) that those 3% of turnarounds are mostly achieved by the high flying teams who have a bad or unlucky first half and sort it out in the second half. It doesn't surprise me that as a relegation side last year that we didn't achieve any turnarounds.
  • Never would have guessed we are stronger the second half. If it is true we are essentially a relegation side in the first half, and we know we are terrible the last few minutes in terms of holding leads, then in the minutes between 45 and 85 we must be running away with the division!
    I've heard they are going to be ending the season early with league positions based on exactly that period of games played so far.
  • Bowyer should start the team that finishes the previous game. Simples.
  • Dazzler21 said:
    I don't know if this ones factually correct or not?

    But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
    We were 2-1 down to Wimbledon when we beat them 5-2 last month
    But we didn't go 1-0 down. 
    The post I was replying to never mentioned 1-0 down, just said 'from a losing position'
    Doh yes, you're right apologies. 
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