It's been a couple of years already since the first, "official" rumours that a takeover might be forthcoming. A long and very frustrating time. And I would bet that everyone involved - from Roland to the bidders, from the EFL to CARD - wished it would complete as soon as possible. But how long does a takeover take? It's impossible to generalise, of course. So it's useful to examine how long it took one of the current parties to complete a fairly recent takeover negotiation, from first rumours to completed, done deal.
Andrew Muir's father Ian built up a business called Mighty Muir. Forty years later, Ian and Andrew renamed the business The Good Guys and set about a significant expansion of the business, from 14 stores in 1992 to 101 in 2016. In 2010, a rumour was circulated that JB HiFi had offered Aus$750m. Analysts valued it at Aus$600m. Muir refused to sell for less than Aus$1bn. Far from putting JB HiFi off, they stayed in the game, and were joined by two other bidders - an Australian conglomerate and a US-based equity fund.
In September 2016, JB HiFi bought the business for Aus$870m.
What can we learn from this?
- Andrew Muir knows how to do a deal.
- He won't do a deal at a price that doesn't suit him.
- He won't rush to do a bad deal in a short period of time.
- The Good Guys was profitable, so delays worked in his favour - Charlton loses money, so delays work in his favour here too.
- Even while holding all the cards, the seller took a 13% haircut - Roland holds none, so we just need to sit tight and wait for him to decide how much money he wants to lose.
If it takes six years to complete a good deal, then we have nothing to panic about simply because a deal hasn't happened yet. Time, as Sir Mick has said for many years, is on our side.
Comments
So, no deal is better than bad deal? Last time I heard that it didn't end well.
The Spivs. Roland. Those were two, quick, bad deals. Being taken over at the right price, by the right people is likely to be better.
In our case, the longer we have Roland the worse it is. Yes some of that was dispproved recently with our fanbase uniting and relative on the pitch success, but he is still a cancer.
Just because Muir is a patient man who is happy to wait for the real deal, doesn't mean Charlton Athletic Football Club can afford to be.
We will more so need to make the valley a fortress...if our squad is wafer thin and quality of our 1st 11 now at championship level is rather questionable.
We will need to be a tough away day that no other club will feel good about as an upcoming fixture.
We can do it.
The players that we currently have deserve for us to get behind them all the way.
We will have to be the 12th man and just get those results at home.
Away day points....can be seen as a bonus.
We just want to at least stay in the division and take it from there.
I'm not sure if anyone's done a cost/benefit analysis of attending vs boycotting.
While the Good Guys remained unsold it was still in the hands of the people who expanded the business and created the value. While CAFC remains unsold it is still the hands of the person who has severely damaged it.
RD's model is unsustainable and has already stretched the club far beyond normal limits. A season as miraculous as 85-86 has now changed the landscape somewhat but the club is in urgent need of major repair. The fans are in desperate need of reassurance that rescue is on the way, yet from all parties there is only silence. And the relentless football calendar moves on.
For every lock there is a key. It's long overdue that someone found Roland's. Addicks deserve better than this eternal stalemate.
But would you say Charlton are in a better or worse place than we were twelve months ago?
That's almost impossible to answer.
There's no denying LB's magnificent achievement but unlike the unfettered joy of 1998, which was continuing the 10-year march from Woolwich Town Hall, Sunday's delirium and disbelief are overshadowed by our charmless owner and his malign influence.
Hand on heart I think we're little better off. We find ourselves living in a beautiful new mansion but it's built on quicksand. What I want to see are hi-vis jackets and the dance of flashlights on the horizon, the beat of approaching helis, the barking of tracker dogs on the scent - not this unnatural and eerie quiet, waiting for a move from someone who doesn't understand us, want us, like us or respect us.
I wish I felt different, I really do ....
For me, I'm quietly positive that Charlton has improved in the last twelve months, despite Roland. And happy he's had to take another ten million hit in the meantime.
The last year has probably hurt Charlton less than it has hurt the owner.
Sorry about that. But the smile is back - it seems we're after the little man from Bolton!!
As the Owner sits in his farmhouse parlour polishing his pennies I don't rejoice in the money he's lost. I just wish he had spent it more wisely and not just wasted it - it could have come in handy.
Over the past year I've come to know, or know better, some of the club's personnel and given the circumstances they are doing us proud. CAFC has pulled itself together, and there is new life in the stands. We need just one person - the right person - to take a gamble on us and this place will take off like a rocket. Everything is in place as long as the coaching staff sign new deals asap - they are vital to this project.
Incidently, your name, ie Redskin would be seen as an insult to all "First Nations Peoples" in America and Canada. No smiley face for you !!