Haven’t seen a thread on this yet so thought I would start one for all those that like their racing
I had massive beginner’s luck 3 years ago, sort of carried over 2 years ago, but last year was an absolute shower of shit
@smiffyboy and the other experts, where are we putting our money this year?
Comments
as usual got a load of small stake accas,lucky15/31s on. mostly faves.
do fancy petit mouchoir to turn over footpad in the arkle.
also will be interesting to see how altior runs this weekend as currently evens for the queen mother.
Samcro - Ballymore
Laurina - Mares Novice
Stormy Ireland - Triumph
Pretty confident about the first two - the Triumph is a tough one to call as always.
The first day looking good for backers with likely a lot of trebles on Footpad (11/10), Beveur D'air (1/2) and Apples Jade (4/6) - 17/4 treble. From a business perspective I would like one of those beat!!
- SAMCRO to win any race @ 10/1. Looks like an unbelievable horse and one I'm really excited to watch come March. Is now odds on for the Ballymore.
- LAURINA to win the Mares' Novices on bobmunro's advice at 12/1. Looks like a machine so here's hoping!
- BLESS THE WINGS to win the Cross Country @ 33/1, each way. Travelled like an absolute dream over the course on his last outing and while there's a couple of risks, I'm happy with the shortening to 12/1.
It all goes downhill from there, though Samcro covers everything (had a massive 3pts on it compared to 1/1.5 everywhere else). Hopefully.
- BAMAKO MORIVIERE to win any race @ 20/1, e/w. Haven't heard a peep from him in ages.
- TOMBSTONE to win any race @ 25/1 e/w. May spring a surprise in the JLT - most likely target for my mind - but is behind a lot of other likely types.
- DAMALISQUE to win the Supreme @ 40/1, e/w. Hasn't raced in England yet, so... Yeah, probably going to be campaigned next year and we'll see what happens.
- Pretty much everything I've done involving Yorkhill, Altior(??!???!), and Faugheen. Won't talk about that.
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Bankers involving the following horses:
- FOOTPAD for the Arkla
- SAMCRO for the Ballymore
- BUVEUR D'AIR for the Champion Hurdle
- APPLES JADE for the Mares Hurdle
- LAURINA for the Mares Novices
All odds on/evs basically. They're all beast horses that will hopefully carve up.
edit the same in altiors race, as a lot say folks would rather have a no hoper in a race at cheltenham - just to say we had a go at cheltenham, instead of a winner at bangor for example.
Like some horses, I'm in a race against time to be fit for Cheltenham - touch and go but if I can ditch these f*cking crutches in time I'll be there on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Fill your boots at 10/1
Of the rest it's mostly pretty speculative. I tend to play at big prices.
Backed PALOMA BLUE for the Supreme after last weekend at 50s. Was the only one to go with Samcro and he pulled hard throughout the race. Was 2nd in Grade 1 bumper to Fayonagh
Can see JOHN CONSTABLE running big race in the Champion. Backed him ew at 66s, been running good races on ground he hates.
KAYF GRACE in the mares at 50s. Backed her to win the Betfair on Saturday and think she wins that and then really serves it up to Apple's Jade. They're making a massive mistake going there fresh with AJ.
ELEGANT ESCAPE at 50s in the four miler, but sounds like they're going to go RSA.
Backed UN DE SCEAUX at 6s and 7s NRNB for the Champion Chase. He only runs if the ground is soft, but if it is he goes off much shorter price. And if he goes for Ryanair you get your money back. Also got decent chunk on ORDINARY WORLD at 50s. Loves good ground, and was going well on soft at Leopardstown before bad mistake at last.
I do like SUSSEX RANGER in the Triumph. Did everything wrong last time and only just went down to We Have A Dream. He reminds me a bit of Detroit City in being a relentless galloper and can see the New Course suiting him. Backed him at 33s, but 20s is still too big.
On MIGHT BITE at 12s, and think he could blast the field apart. Also had a bit on CONEY ISLAND at big prices on Betfair.
Current things on my horizon that I'm trying to orchestrate to get on are BALKO DES FLOS in the Ryanair and TIGER ROLL in the X-Country.
Look out for THE STORYTELLER in whichever handicap he rocks up in. And on the subject of handicaps take advantage of the extra place terms and perm a few horses in a few races in doubles and trebles. Your expected return on these is epic. Day One do Ultima/NH Chase/Nov Hcap. Day Two do Coral Cup/Fred Winter. Day Three do Pertemps/Plate. Day Four do County/Pipe/Grand Annual. I'll put aside a good chunk of my betting bank to perm 3 horses in each race and do 9 ew doubles, and 27 ew trebles. The place part is massively in your favour and you can cop a big payout if they all click. Missed out on Tiger Roll/Singlefarmpayment/Tully East treble last year by a nose!
Whatever you do, DO NOT lump on the Day One treble of Footpad/Buveur D'Air/Apple's Jade. I'd expect bookmakers to start hyping this up soon. Maybe with Getabird in the Supreme, or Samcro. It is dreadful value.
It's the way it is. I've not got the Day One treble in isolation, because it's very easily opposed, but all those horses look so good.
I'm sure you can imagine the loudness of the cheer that went up in the industry three years ago when Annie fell at the last in the Mares!!
If you think the even money favourite has a 75% chance of winning, then by all means fill your boots. But bookies won't get things that wrong on the shorties as the information about them is so well known. I tend to find that if I think a 33/1 chance has a 10% chance of winning or more is more easy to find, but that's just personal preference. You have to take a lot of losers on the chin, but long term it works. I try to visualise a bet as just one in a long sequence of bets.
No different if a horse you had backed was a distant second and the leader falls - have you ever backed a horse in that situation - have you heard a crowd cheer when the second was a heavily backed favourite and that happens - and the change from cheers to near silence when the horse doesn't rise? Imagine if Annie had been second and the leader had fallen? The roar that would have gone up.
Every backer, layer, owner, trainer, jockey, racing publication, racing journalist, breeder, racecourse operator has blood on their hands. You are in that list and so am I - and I can tick three of that list.
Hypocritical bullshit.
What a spectacle they'll be!
These days I'm lucky that the hotel is booked for me and I'm entertained in a box - but for many years I would wander the course soaking up the atmosphere wherever I could find it.
For those four days in mid-March (it was better when it was three) Cheltenham is the greatest place on the planet (and I'm a flat man!!).
lucked in this year bought tattersalls tickets for both days and the ticket office sent me tags for club enclosure for both days.
agree with others there is no where quite like it, although the crowd does seem to be getting a bit more ascot, wearing a suit and acting like a twat as opposed to watching the greatest show on turf.
Probably wise now to lay some of that profit off on Betfair because I wouldn't trust that outfit as far as I could throw them!
and samcro now 4/6 for the ballymore