Thanks for the write up and everyone’s efforts in getting this organised.
For me, two critical questions haven’t seemingly been asked or answered:
1.) Would Roland prefer or consider an offer that saw him continue with ownership of The Valley / Sparrows Lane with the view of leasing them back.
2.) If such an offer were to be considered, as a one of 6 former directors with first charge against the assets, would you object to such a deal?
The answer to both of those questions will surely have given us far more insight to the long term success of the club rather than the next 8 days of the transfer window.
All RM's comments would suggest to me that he isn't that involved in the tings that matter - he is just relaying the little bits of after the event news that he picks up being the current front man. Yes he might make the point forcibly that we will need to buy another centre half. at least, if Konsa is sold. But note that he hasn't promised anything.
I also have my doubts about the story in respect of Ricky Holmes - who could quite easily not have negotiated a new (and increased) contract in the summer if he was keen on playing in the Championship. Remember that Robinson is now aying he was not told until the deal was nearly complete.
All RM's comments would suggest to me that he isn't that involved in the tings that matter - he is just relaying the little bits of after the event news that he picks up being the current front man. Yes he might make the point forcibly that we will need to buy another centre half. at least, if Konsa is sold. But note that he hasn't promised anything.
I also have my doubts about the story in respect of Ricky Holmes - who could quite easily not have negotiated a new (and increased) contract in the summer if he was keen on playing in the Championship. Remember that Robinson is now aying he was not told until the deal was nearly complete.
I couldn’t get past that first sentence without reading the rest of the post in a Jamaican accent.
Just to say that just as "could be as soon as next week" became "is definitely happening next week" what Murray says isn't that it is happening in February but
"In his opinion (“although I may be wrong”) the most likely month for a sale to be concluded is February. "
Just to say that just as "could be as soon as next week" became "is definitely happening next week" what Murray says isn't that it is happening in February but
"In his opinion (“although I may be wrong”) the most likely month for a sale to be concluded is February. "
Just to say that just as "could be as soon as next week" became "is definitely happening next week" what Murray says isn't that it is happening in February but
"In his opinion (“although I may be wrong”) the most likely month for a sale to be concluded is February. "
So what your saying is Murray promised it would definitely be completed on 1st February?
Main points for me are. Roland definitely wants to sell the club. He will not want to be here for next season. February could well be the month. Light at the end of a long dark tunnel at last.
I agree with most of that mate the only bit that still concerns is that he may well have some marker on us be it rent or debt
Quite possible but I read the "how they pay" comment as is it a lump sum followed by contingent payments linked to promotions, £11m a year for 7 years, all up front, etc etc.
Brilliant work by @CARD in pushing for this and by the Trust and @Pico in talking to Murray and getting the word out there. This was always going to take different groups taking different approaches, and it's good to see this is working.
Murray again speaks of our location being a big plus for our ability to attract good investment which I don't buy.
If that was the case then I'm sure better suitors could have been found than Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet over the years?
And why all the secrecy again? Would be nice for one of these groups to put their cards on the table and give us a bit of background to who they are and what their intentions would be. Call me cynicaI, but I just see the whole secrecy thing as a means of starting as they intend to go on.
I still maintain that at the price being banded around (£50,000,000), realistically means the club is not for sale......by that I mean not at that price or anything like it anyway.
I still maintain that at the price being banded around (£50,000,000), realistically means the club is not for sale......by that I mean not at that price or anything like it anyway.
But maybe that would be the "price" contingent on the club reaching the premier league?
The only financial value of the club is that it does have a small but realistic chance of reaching the premier league - in which case £50,000,000 becomes a drop in the ocean.
A tempting deal to offer RD might be something like £10 million now plus £50 million if the club reaches the premier league within the next 20 years plus £10 million for every year the club stays in the premier league thereafter.
But if the club was to reach the Premier League under new owners, why would they want to or why should they even, reward a useless former owner for their achievement? What sort of deal would that be?
I still maintain that at the price being banded around (£50,000,000), realistically means the club is not for sale......by that I mean not at that price or anything like it anyway.
That’s logical but I really don’t see why Richard Murray has stuck his neck out and “guessed” that a deal will happen in February and certainly by next season. That absolutely confirms that RD wants to sell. Agree he won’t get £50 million and he knows that too but we are very much for sale.
Personally I'm not bothered about the price being banded about (£50m), as nobody knows what figures are ACTUALLY being discussed other then RD's people and the potential owners.
That they are talking suggests that the price is at a level where there IS genuine interest, if RD had insisted on an unrealistic amount, with no room for negotiation, the bidding talks would have been terminated quite quickly.
Valuing football clubs is such a subjective and tricky exercise anyway. That expensive signing who turns into a complete flop, that young kid you pick up for peanuts who turns into a big money asset (Lookman and possibly now Fosu). Win the playoff final and your income shoots up, lose it and several players want out...
"Roland is also aware that Charlton is a much more attractive proposition as a Championship club."
that bit kind of tells me if we hadn't won these last few games we might of got shot of Roland sooner. A bit of a gamble but he could try and draw out negotiations as long as possible to see what are chances are. Its a risk but if we do the unthinkable this season and go up via the play offs he would then sell the club as a championship outfit in the summer, that way increasing the value of the club (probably over valuating it again and we end up with him even longer). or we could blow it in the play offs and he sells it for much less than what he hopes for.
either way have we got the patience's to see what happens in May? more importantly has the potential buyers got the patience?
"Roland is also aware that Charlton is a much more attractive proposition as a Championship club."
that bit kind of tells me if we hadn't won these last few games we might of got shot of Roland sooner. A bit of a gamble but he could try and draw out negotiations as long as possible to see what are chances are. Its a risk but if we do the unthinkable this season and go up via the play offs he would then sell the club as a championship outfit in the summer, that way increasing the value of the club (probably over valuating it again and we end up with him even longer). or we could blow it in the play offs and he sells it for much less than what he hopes for.
either way have we got the patience's to see what happens in May? more importantly has the potential buyers got the patience?
The change in price that would arise if by some miracle Charlton were to get promoted could fairly easily be addressed in negotiations prior to a sale. It’s x if Charlton are next season in league one and y if promotion is achieved.
Think it shows where we are and that the end of the RD reign is approaching. Interesting that the reason given for his withdrawal is "Roland would not want to go into another season with further losses accruing and crowds dwindling" rather than the fact that the man is 70+ and has previously stated he'd like to retire. Perhaps a grudging and unspoken admision here that he has failed at Charlton?
After Saturday we seem to still be in some sort of contention for the Play Offs. With that and a change in ownership looming the future no longer seems one of continual mediocrity and under acheivement.
"Roland is also aware that Charlton is a much more attractive proposition as a Championship club."
that bit kind of tells me if we hadn't won these last few games we might of got shot of Roland sooner. A bit of a gamble but he could try and draw out negotiations as long as possible to see what are chances are. Its a risk but if we do the unthinkable this season and go up via the play offs he would then sell the club as a championship outfit in the summer, that way increasing the value of the club (probably over valuating it again and we end up with him even longer). or we could blow it in the play offs and he sells it for much less than what he hopes for.
either way have we got the patience's to see what happens in May? more importantly has the potential buyers got the patience?
The change in price that would arise if by some miracle Charlton were to get promoted could fairly easily be addressed in negotiations prior to a sale. It’s x if Charlton are next season in league one and y if promotion is achieved.
In fact wasn't it said something similar was in place when Roland bought the club from the Spivs?
Something like £14m if the club was relegated/ £18m if the club stayed up.
"Roland is also aware that Charlton is a much more attractive proposition as a Championship club."
that bit kind of tells me if we hadn't won these last few games we might of got shot of Roland sooner. A bit of a gamble but he could try and draw out negotiations as long as possible to see what are chances are. Its a risk but if we do the unthinkable this season and go up via the play offs he would then sell the club as a championship outfit in the summer, that way increasing the value of the club (probably over valuating it again and we end up with him even longer). or we could blow it in the play offs and he sells it for much less than what he hopes for.
either way have we got the patience's to see what happens in May? more importantly has the potential buyers got the patience?
The change in price that would arise if by some miracle Charlton were to get promoted could fairly easily be addressed in negotiations prior to a sale. It’s x if Charlton are next season in league one and y if promotion is achieved.
ah of course, its all in the contract and the conditions.
I think it should also be noted that the huge goodwill to new owners would not be there if RD still owned The Valley and SL training ground and charged the new owners rent. That would be worse than RD staying , he has to be completely gone.
Personally I'm not bothered about the price being banded about (£50m), as nobody knows what figures are ACTUALLY being discussed other then RD's people and the potential owners.
That they are talking suggests that the price is at a level where there IS genuine interest, if RD had insisted on an unrealistic amount, with no room for negotiation, the bidding talks would have been terminated quite quickly.
Valuing football clubs is such a subjective and tricky exercise anyway. That expensive signing who turns into a complete flop, that young kid you pick up for peanuts who turns into a big money asset (Lookman and possibly now Fosu). Win the playoff final and you're income shoots up, lose it and several players want out...
I think it should also be noted that the huge goodwill to new owners would not be there if RD still owned The Valley and SL training ground and charged the new owners rent. That would be worse than RD staying , he has to be completely gone.
Goodwill is the value paid by the buyer which recognises intangible value sitting in the business that will be released over time by the new owner, so is paid for in advance. It gets written off every year on the basis that the goodwill will be unwinding in the form of additional revenue.
RD has left nothing that can be valued as goodwill to be generated from existing resources. All he has left is negative goodwill that new owners will need to put right.
Future cash generation will be entirely down to the efforts of the new owners, there is no goodwill to be released from the existing business, unless or until we are guaranteed promotion. It is obvious that the price would reflect an element of goodwill if we are promoted and the skinflint seems to be gambling on getting promotion on the cheap rather than paying out any cash that eats into his net sale proceeds.
Surely, if he sells now no one is going to shell out more than circa £20m I would guess. So from a skinflint perspective he has nothing to lose beyond what he's already lost, apart from more cash paid for new players should we fail to get promotion. He can afford to risk staying in league 1 and taking a hit on what has already been written off, against the upside of £50m if we are promoted and he hasn't increased Staprix debt.
On that logic I can't see him selling before we know which league we are playing in next year. If he wanted a quick sale and cut his losses he could have sold by now, but if he prefers waiting/delaying on the chance of cutting his losses dramatically his tactics seem spot on.
All RM's comments would suggest to me that he isn't that involved in the tings that matter - he is just relaying the little bits of after the event news that he picks up being the current front man. Yes he might make the point forcibly that we will need to buy another centre half. at least, if Konsa is sold. But note that he hasn't promised anything.
I also have my doubts about the story in respect of Ricky Holmes - who could quite easily not have negotiated a new (and increased) contract in the summer if he was keen on playing in the Championship. Remember that Robinson is now aying he was not told until the deal was nearly complete.
I couldn’t get past that first sentence without reading the rest of the post in a Jamaican accent.
Grauniad reader rather than Jamaican - but don't worry about a ting, because every little ting's going to be alright (once RD goes).
I think it should also be noted that the huge goodwill to new owners would not be there if RD still owned The Valley and SL training ground and charged the new owners rent. That would be worse than RD staying , he has to be completely gone.
Goodwill is the value paid by the buyer which recognises intangible value sitting in the business that will be released over time by the new owner, so is paid for in advance. It gets written off every year on the basis that the goodwill will be unwinding in the form of additional revenue.
RD has left nothing that can be valued as goodwill to be generated from existing resources. All he has left is negative goodwill that new owners will need to put right.
Future cash generation will be entirely down to the efforts of the new owners, there is no goodwill to be released from the existing business, unless or until we are guaranteed promotion. It is obvious that the price would reflect an element of goodwill if we are promoted and the skinflint seems to be gambling on getting promotion on the cheap rather than paying out any cash that eats into his net sale proceeds.
Surely, if he sells now no one is going to shell out more than circa £20m I would guess. So from a skinflint perspective he has nothing to lose beyond what he's already lost, apart from more cash paid for new players should we fail to get promotion. He can afford to risk staying in league 1 and taking a hit on what has already been written off, against the upside of £50m if we are promoted and he hasn't increased Staprix debt.
On that logic I can't see him selling before we know which league we are playing in next year. If he wanted a quick sale and cut his losses he could have sold by now, but if he prefers waiting/delaying on the chance of cutting his losses dramatically his tactics seem spot on.
I seem to remember that negative goodwill arose on the acquisition (i.e. Roland paid less than the book/fair values of the assets acquired) and because they didn't account for the negative goodwill properly (did they do anything properly) the treatment had to be corrected in the following years accounts. If they started with negative goodwill you can be pretty sure that they haven't generated any positive goodwill subsequently - unless the purchasers are completely stupid.
All RM's comments would suggest to me that he isn't that involved in the tings that matter - he is just relaying the little bits of after the event news that he picks up being the current front man. Yes he might make the point forcibly that we will need to buy another centre half. at least, if Konsa is sold. But note that he hasn't promised anything.
I also have my doubts about the story in respect of Ricky Holmes - who could quite easily not have negotiated a new (and increased) contract in the summer if he was keen on playing in the Championship. Remember that Robinson is now aying he was not told until the deal was nearly complete.
I couldn’t get past that first sentence without reading the rest of the post in a Jamaican accent.
Grauniad reader rather than Jamaican - but don't worry about a ting, because every little ting's going to be alright (once RD goes).
I think it should also be noted that the huge goodwill to new owners would not be there if RD still owned The Valley and SL training ground and charged the new owners rent. That would be worse than RD staying , he has to be completely gone.
Goodwill is the value paid by the buyer which recognises intangible value sitting in the business that will be released over time by the new owner, so is paid for in advance. It gets written off every year on the basis that the goodwill will be unwinding in the form of additional revenue.
RD has left nothing that can be valued as goodwill to be generated from existing resources. All he has left is negative goodwill that new owners will need to put right.
Future cash generation will be entirely down to the efforts of the new owners, there is no goodwill to be released from the existing business, unless or until we are guaranteed promotion. It is obvious that the price would reflect an element of goodwill if we are promoted and the skinflint seems to be gambling on getting promotion on the cheap rather than paying out any cash that eats into his net sale proceeds.
Surely, if he sells now no one is going to shell out more than circa £20m I would guess. So from a skinflint perspective he has nothing to lose beyond what he's already lost, apart from more cash paid for new players should we fail to get promotion. He can afford to risk staying in league 1 and taking a hit on what has already been written off, against the upside of £50m if we are promoted and he hasn't increased Staprix debt.
On that logic I can't see him selling before we know which league we are playing in next year. If he wanted a quick sale and cut his losses he could have sold by now, but if he prefers waiting/delaying on the chance of cutting his losses dramatically his tactics seem spot on.
I make you absolutely right. Konsa is RD's last payday, his last roll of the dice. Once Konsa's sold there's no more talent to sell that can keep significantly funding RD's losses, we would only see small fees for players like Aribo, Pearce, JFC etc which might fund a month or two's losses here and there If we're losing £7m a year as RM says. But I don't now see RD doing the firesale knowing that this would end our chances of making the play offs. RD's almost walking a tight rope here trying to get us promoted without dipping into his own pocket anymore.
£4m for Konsa would then probably cover 6 months losses taking us up until the end of July for RD to sell up. RD can afford to run the risk of seeing if we make the play offs financed by selling Konsa when there's still a chance of promotion and RD being able to potentially get better offers on the table if promoted than he's getting now.
I originally thought RD would sell up quickly after KM left. Now I believe he's here for the rest of the season hoping to get lucky via the playoffs. I think the only way of RD going quicker is if our season goes up in smoke and the play offs are no more a possibility, that's when I think RD will back down and take his haircut. Had we not won the last three games then I think we'd have seen him potentially sell next month.
Either way I genuinely believe this season is the last with RD in charge promoted or not.
Personally I'm not bothered about the price being banded about (£50m), as nobody knows what figures are ACTUALLY being discussed other then RD's people and the potential owners.
That they are talking suggests that the price is at a level where there IS genuine interest, if RD had insisted on an unrealistic amount, with no room for negotiation, the bidding talks would have been terminated quite quickly.
Valuing football clubs is such a subjective and tricky exercise anyway. That expensive signing who turns into a complete flop, that young kid you pick up for peanuts who turns into a big money asset (Lookman and possibly now Fosu). Win the playoff final and your income shoots up, lose it and several players want out...
True........but how many potential purchasers have already been driven away because of the absurd asking price.....quite a few it would seem.
Comments
For me, two critical questions haven’t seemingly been asked or answered:
1.) Would Roland prefer or consider an offer that saw him continue with ownership of The Valley / Sparrows Lane with the view of leasing them back.
2.) If such an offer were to be considered, as a one of 6 former directors with first charge against the assets, would you object to such a deal?
The answer to both of those questions will surely have given us far more insight to the long term success of the club rather than the next 8 days of the transfer window.
I also have my doubts about the story in respect of Ricky Holmes - who could quite easily not have negotiated a new (and increased) contract in the summer if he was keen on playing in the Championship. Remember that Robinson is now aying he was not told until the deal was nearly complete.
"In his opinion (“although I may be wrong”) the most likely month for a sale to be concluded is February. "
If that was the case then I'm sure better suitors could have been found than Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet over the years?
And why all the secrecy again?
Would be nice for one of these groups to put their cards on the table and give us a bit of background to who they are and what their intentions would be.
Call me cynicaI, but I just see the whole secrecy thing as a means of starting as they intend to go on.
The only financial value of the club is that it does have a small but realistic chance of reaching the premier league - in which case £50,000,000 becomes a drop in the ocean.
A tempting deal to offer RD might be something like £10 million now plus £50 million if the club reaches the premier league within the next 20 years plus £10 million for every year the club stays in the premier league thereafter.
That they are talking suggests that the price is at a level where there IS genuine interest, if RD had insisted on an unrealistic amount, with no room for negotiation, the bidding talks would have been terminated quite quickly.
Valuing football clubs is such a subjective and tricky exercise anyway. That expensive signing who turns into a complete flop, that young kid you pick up for peanuts who turns into a big money asset (Lookman and possibly now Fosu). Win the playoff final and your income shoots up, lose it and several players want out...
that bit kind of tells me if we hadn't won these last few games we might of got shot of Roland sooner. A bit of a gamble but he could try and draw out negotiations as long as possible to see what are chances are.
Its a risk but if we do the unthinkable this season and go up via the play offs he would then sell the club as a championship outfit in the summer, that way increasing the value of the club (probably over valuating it again and we end up with him even longer). or we could blow it in the play offs and he sells it for much less than what he hopes for.
either way have we got the patience's to see what happens in May? more importantly has the potential buyers got the patience?
Think it shows where we are and that the end of the RD reign is approaching. Interesting that the reason given for his withdrawal is "Roland would not want to go into another season with further losses accruing and crowds dwindling" rather than the fact that the man is 70+ and has previously stated he'd like to retire. Perhaps a grudging and unspoken admision here that he has failed at Charlton?
After Saturday we seem to still be in some sort of contention for the Play Offs. With that and a change in ownership looming the future no longer seems one of continual mediocrity and under acheivement.
Something like £14m if the club was relegated/ £18m if the club stayed up.
RD has left nothing that can be valued as goodwill to be generated from existing resources. All he has left is negative goodwill that new owners will need to put right.
Future cash generation will be entirely down to the efforts of the new owners, there is no goodwill to be released from the existing business, unless or until we are guaranteed promotion. It is obvious that the price would reflect an element of goodwill if we are promoted and the skinflint seems to be gambling on getting promotion on the cheap rather than paying out any cash that eats into his net sale proceeds.
Surely, if he sells now no one is going to shell out more than circa £20m I would guess. So from a skinflint perspective he has nothing to lose beyond what he's already lost, apart from more cash paid for new players should we fail to get promotion. He can afford to risk staying in league 1 and taking a hit on what has already been written off, against the upside of £50m if we are promoted and he hasn't increased Staprix debt.
On that logic I can't see him selling before we know which league we are playing in next year. If he wanted a quick sale and cut his losses he could have sold by now, but if he prefers waiting/delaying on the chance of cutting his losses dramatically his tactics seem spot on.
£4m for Konsa would then probably cover 6 months losses taking us up until the end of July for RD to sell up. RD can afford to run the risk of seeing if we make the play offs financed by selling Konsa when there's still a chance of promotion and RD being able to potentially get better offers on the table if promoted than he's getting now.
I originally thought RD would sell up quickly after KM left. Now I believe he's here for the rest of the season hoping to get lucky via the playoffs. I think the only way of RD going quicker is if our season goes up in smoke and the play offs are no more a possibility, that's when I think RD will back down and take his haircut. Had we not won the last three games then I think we'd have seen him potentially sell next month.
Either way I genuinely believe this season is the last with RD in charge promoted or not.