That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
What is indisputable is that people are dying. The vast majority of those are elderly and the demographic of the Brexit vote was that the older generations tended to vote leave. The point @Red_in_SE8 originally made was correct even if the exact figures of deaths overlaid with voting in the referendum are not as precise.
When those 50-54 year olds become elderly and automatically start voting for Brexit there'll be trouble. Better get a new vote sequence going soon. Best of 5 should do it.
I made the point a while ago that many of the people who supported joining in the 1970s voted against it this time. The longer you experience the EU generally the more you dislike it.
Opposite for me. I campaigned and voted against then. Now I'm a fervent remainer.
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
It will be closer than people think.
But they would need every Tory MP and every DUP MP to vote with them which I just cannot see happening regardless of how successful their whip has been before.
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
It will be closer than people think.
But they would need every Tory MP and every DUP MP to vote with them which I just cannot see happening regardless of how successful their whip has been before.
I think the DUP will be bribed into supporting her. I think it will come down to about a dozen Tory MP’s voting against and there will be some labour votes in support. Think the odds are still against her but ....
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
It will be closer than people think.
But they would need every Tory MP and every DUP MP to vote with them which I just cannot see happening regardless of how successful their whip has been before.
I think the DUP will be bribed into supporting her. I think it will come down to about a dozen Tory MP’s voting against and there will be some labour votes in support. Think the odds are still against her but ....
We’ll see - I’d be astonished if she wins it but I could see the temptation of simply getting something agreed
Could London remain a member of the European Union, if the rest of the UK were to continue on the path of leaving the EU?
Sometimes, when you're stuck in an intractable negotiation, you have to think the unthinkable. An out-of-the-ordinary suggestion can result in an urgent coming-together of opposing ideas and culminate in an agreement.
So, where we have a single "deal" that is suggested as the best way forward for the entire United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland that fails to meet the objectives of most of the people and regions of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, surely there is a demand for a new way of thinking. Forcing the whole of the UK to adopt a unified deal that's against its collective interest forces a tension that looks likely only to be released by breaking up the Kingdom.
Scotland doesn't want Brexit. Northern Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It's unarguable, therefore, that Brexit is not in the interest of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It's harmful to their prospects and its diametrically opposed to their stated aspiration in the referendum. Yet, the UK requires the population of those two nations to go along with the "will" of a group of people, the majority of whom don't have their best interests at heart. Why wouldn't they want to exit the UK instead of exiting the EU?
Scotland may want to stay in the EU more than they want to stay in the UK. Indeed, two referenda seem to prove that point. Scotland voted 55% to remain in the UK; 62% to remain in the EU.
Northern Ireland may want to retain their unfettered links with the rest of their island more than they want to remain as part of a non-EU UK. East Londonderry voted to remain. Mid Ulster voted to remain. West Tyrone voted to remain. Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted to remain. Newry and Armagh voted to remain. South Down voted to remain. Every part of Northern Ireland that has a border with Ireland voted not to put up borders.
London voted to remain. 60:40.
So why don't we give these voters exactly what they voted for? Why don't we allow Northern Ireland to remain in a union with both Europe and the rest of the United Kingdom? Why don't we give Scotland what they demanded - membership of the EU and membership of the UK? Why don't we give London what it voted for - c dearontinued benefit, security, clarity and stability of membership of the EU? And why don't we give Wales and the rest of England what they voted for - independence from the EU - and grant them even more: their own independence and opportunities that come with no longer being hindered by governance from Westminster?
If the UK were to be changed from an association of four nations to an association of London, Northern Ireland and Scotland, then the UK (comprising just those places) could remain in the EU and the rest of the (former) UK would get all the independence they voted for, and then some.
Two points worth mentioning. Some people might baulk at geographically-disparate and autonomous locations being part of one country within the EU. But those people might want to reflect on other locations which are already part of the EU: the Aland Islands, Büsingen, Canaries, Channel Islands, Heligoland, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mayotte, Mount Athos, Réunion, Saint-Martin.
And some people might wonder whether a country comprising London, Northern Ireland and Scotland would be "big" enough. Well, with a GDP of more than $800bn, we would be the sixth-biggest economy in the EU.
A slimmed-down UK comprising three locations fully aligned with EU values and demonstrating they want to be in - and contribute to the success of - the EU remaining in the EU. And Wales, along with provincial England cutting their own, desired path of independence from the EU. Everyone gets what they want.
Right?
I'd go with this if I could vote for it! Stopping free movement around the UK would also solve problems of congestion and overstretched services far more effectively than leaving the EU.
Not sure what would happen to the football leagues though. Eufa don't like competitions across countries except when they organise it. Or maybe it's actually the fa that are to blame for this and we would get new leagues forming across Europe to rival the big five.
Just daydreaming in my hotel room ! None of this will happen.
Liverpool and Manchester voted to remain so shouldn't be dumped in Brexitland. That would also enable the Premier League to maintain a reasonable standard.
How about building a wall up the East Coast from Essex to Newcastle. All the leavers could locate themselves behind it and live happily ever after
Could London remain a member of the European Union, if the rest of the UK were to continue on the path of leaving the EU?
Sometimes, when you're stuck in an intractable negotiation, you have to think the unthinkable. An out-of-the-ordinary suggestion can result in an urgent coming-together of opposing ideas and culminate in an agreement.
So, where we have a single "deal" that is suggested as the best way forward for the entire United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland that fails to meet the objectives of most of the people and regions of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, surely there is a demand for a new way of thinking. Forcing the whole of the UK to adopt a unified deal that's against its collective interest forces a tension that looks likely only to be released by breaking up the Kingdom.
Scotland doesn't want Brexit. Northern Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It's unarguable, therefore, that Brexit is not in the interest of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It's harmful to their prospects and its diametrically opposed to their stated aspiration in the referendum. Yet, the UK requires the population of those two nations to go along with the "will" of a group of people, the majority of whom don't have their best interests at heart. Why wouldn't they want to exit the UK instead of exiting the EU?
Scotland may want to stay in the EU more than they want to stay in the UK. Indeed, two referenda seem to prove that point. Scotland voted 55% to remain in the UK; 62% to remain in the EU.
Northern Ireland may want to retain their unfettered links with the rest of their island more than they want to remain as part of a non-EU UK. East Londonderry voted to remain. Mid Ulster voted to remain. West Tyrone voted to remain. Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted to remain. Newry and Armagh voted to remain. South Down voted to remain. Every part of Northern Ireland that has a border with Ireland voted not to put up borders.
London voted to remain. 60:40.
So why don't we give these voters exactly what they voted for? Why don't we allow Northern Ireland to remain in a union with both Europe and the rest of the United Kingdom? Why don't we give Scotland what they demanded - membership of the EU and membership of the UK? Why don't we give London what it voted for - c dearontinued benefit, security, clarity and stability of membership of the EU? And why don't we give Wales and the rest of England what they voted for - independence from the EU - and grant them even more: their own independence and opportunities that come with no longer being hindered by governance from Westminster?
If the UK were to be changed from an association of four nations to an association of London, Northern Ireland and Scotland, then the UK (comprising just those places) could remain in the EU and the rest of the (former) UK would get all the independence they voted for, and then some.
Two points worth mentioning. Some people might baulk at geographically-disparate and autonomous locations being part of one country within the EU. But those people might want to reflect on other locations which are already part of the EU: the Aland Islands, Büsingen, Canaries, Channel Islands, Heligoland, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mayotte, Mount Athos, Réunion, Saint-Martin.
And some people might wonder whether a country comprising London, Northern Ireland and Scotland would be "big" enough. Well, with a GDP of more than $800bn, we would be the sixth-biggest economy in the EU.
A slimmed-down UK comprising three locations fully aligned with EU values and demonstrating they want to be in - and contribute to the success of - the EU remaining in the EU. And Wales, along with provincial England cutting their own, desired path of independence from the EU. Everyone gets what they want.
Right?
I'd go with this if I could vote for it! Stopping free movement around the UK would also solve problems of congestion and overstretched services far more effectively than leaving the EU.
Not sure what would happen to the football leagues though. Eufa don't like competitions across countries except when they organise it. Or maybe it's actually the fa that are to blame for this and we would get new leagues forming across Europe to rival the big five.
Just daydreaming in my hotel room ! None of this will happen.
Liverpool and Manchester voted to remain so shouldn't be dumped in Brexitland. That would also enable the Premier League to maintain a reasonable standard.
How about building a wall up the East Coast from Essex to Newcastle. All the leavers could locate themselves behind it and live happily ever after
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
It will be closer than people think.
Tempted to lump money on it passing. Only coz I was sure Brexit wouldn’t pass and trump wouldn’t get in. This would be the hat trick
That for me would be a game changer. I have for months and months desperately wanted for Labour to offer and fight for an alternative to what is on offer from the Tories.
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
I honestly can’t see how she’ll get the numbers.
On the face of it, that’s the obvious conclusion but like I said before don’t underestimate the Tory machine in getting MP’s to tow the line. DUP can be promised unicorns and bought with money again.
It will be closer than people think.
But they would need every Tory MP and every DUP MP to vote with them which I just cannot see happening regardless of how successful their whip has been before.
I think the DUP will be bribed into supporting her. I think it will come down to about a dozen Tory MP’s voting against and there will be some labour votes in support. Think the odds are still against her but ....
We’ll see - I’d be astonished if she wins it but I could see the temptation of simply getting something agreed
May has just today embarked on a nationwide tour to espouse the merits of her deal. She wants to woo the people to put pressure on their MP’s to support the deal. Add to that the pressure from Tory HQ to the constituency parties to apply pressure and you can see that there is a real possibility of her squeaking the numbers from the vast bulk of her own party. Likewise labour MP’s will have their voters on their backs in some areas in the north. If the DUP can be won over with a crock of shit gold then all of a sudden it’s just possible. Unlikely but possible.
May won't get the numbers from within her own party, forget about the DUP. What is unknown is what will happen next. I have faith parliament will not allow a hard Brexit - that is the leap of faith you need to want this to play out to its conclusion.
Check this clip of Rik Mayall playing Alan B'stard, from back in the day when only nutters like Bill Cash banged on about Europe. Terrifyingly prescient.
Any Labour Brexiteer voting for May will collect their P45 soon after.
Most Labour MP’s represent constituencies that voted leave.
Just saying
Constituencies yes, Labour vote within those constituencies, then no. And the likes of Flint and Snell aren't going to be carried through their towns for voting for the deal, when the jobs go and the NHS in that area gets fucked. They'll carry the blame.
I read this and it’s like we’ve gone in for heart surgery. We’ve discovered the heart surgeon is a dentist, we’re in the middle of the surgery and we can either choose to leave with the surgery incomplete, or let the dentist who has a rudimentary knowledge of the human body and biology from once upon a time continue and finish, because that gives us a slightly better chance of survival than if we choose to walk out. Classic
The whole country has ended up being corralled into this nightmare because of a minority of Tories who have always been anti Europe. For a change of such importance one would hope it would be because of a groundswell of at least 60% of the population. The Tories have driven such a rift into the UK the country will be divided for generations to come. If there was any kind of international conflict in the future I certainly wouldn't fight and die for or alongside brexiters, including many who post here. Brexit has changed the (always dodgy anyway) concept of patriotism. I am certainly not a patriot supporting a minority swivel eyed rump of very nasty Tories, just as I wouldn't be in support of dodgy dossier Blair. In my bleakest moments, though born in Kent, I feel like saying to the brexit winners 'it is your country now, it will never be mine, and there is no incentive any more for me to be engaged. Get on with your brexit, and I fervently hope it is much worse than the forecasts of 'project fear'.' Actually I don't want that, I don't want to invite in the nightmare to come, I am proud to be a European and especially a Londoner (SE London brigade) and what the Tories have caused to happen is a reminder to hate and despise them, not all brexiters.
I imagine the ECJ will take the path of least resistance, that Article 50 can be revoked by the invoking party as long as the other 27 member believe that both the original invoking and subsequent revoking were in good faith. Gives everybody an easy out without opening the possibility of strategic weaponisation of Article 50.
It will also highlight the sheer folly of pulling the trigger on Article 50 so prematurely by May. It was the biggest and best bargaining tool her government had and she threw it away on day one. The ruling by the ECJ will almost certainly codify the EUs currently position that they don't shift their negotiating stance once Article 50 is triggered, ensuring any and all negotiations happen before a country triggers Article 50.
I read this and it’s like we’ve gone in for heart surgery. We’ve discovered the heart surgeon is a dentist, we’re in the middle of the surgery and we can either choose to leave with the surgery incomplete, or let the dentist who has a rudimentary knowledge of the human body and biology from once upon a time continue and finish, because that gives us a slightly better chance of survival than if we choose to walk out. Classic
At least you didn’t say “it’s like buying a house...”.
I imagine the ECJ will take the path of least resistance, that Article 50 can be revoked by the invoking party as long as the other 27 member believe that both the original invoking and subsequent revoking were in good faith. Gives everybody an easy out without opening the possibility of strategic weaponisation of Article 50.
It will also highlight the sheer folly of pulling the trigger on Article 50 so prematurely by May. It was the biggest and best bargaining tool her government had and she threw it away on day one. The ruling by the ECJ will almost certainly codify the EUs currently position that they don't shift their negotiating stance once Article 50 is triggered, ensuring any and all negotiations happen before a country triggers Article 50.
I had always understood that negotiations on a 'Withdrawal Agreement' could not begin without first triggering 'Article 50'?:
Article 50
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
Comments
I will watch with baited breath. FWIW. I still have a sneaking view that May might win the vote.
Now I'm a fervent remainer.
It will be closer than people think.
How about building a wall up the East Coast from Essex to Newcastle. All the leavers could locate themselves behind it and live happily ever after
shitgold then all of a sudden it’s just possible. Unlikely but possible.Just saying
I read this and it’s like we’ve gone in for heart surgery. We’ve discovered the heart surgeon is a dentist, we’re in the middle of the surgery and we can either choose to leave with the surgery incomplete, or let the dentist who has a rudimentary knowledge of the human body and biology from once upon a time continue and finish, because that gives us a slightly better chance of survival than if we choose to walk out. Classic
For a change of such importance one would hope it would be because of a groundswell of at least 60% of the population.
The Tories have driven such a rift into the UK the country will be divided for generations to come.
If there was any kind of international conflict in the future I certainly wouldn't fight and die for or alongside brexiters, including many who post here.
Brexit has changed the (always dodgy anyway) concept of patriotism. I am certainly not a patriot supporting a minority swivel eyed rump of very nasty Tories, just as I wouldn't be in support of dodgy dossier Blair.
In my bleakest moments, though born in Kent, I feel like saying to the brexit winners 'it is your country now, it will never be mine, and there is no incentive any more for me to be engaged. Get on with your brexit, and I fervently hope it is much worse than the forecasts of 'project fear'.'
Actually I don't want that, I don't want to invite in the nightmare to come, I am proud to be a European and especially a Londoner (SE London brigade) and what the Tories have caused to happen is a reminder to hate and despise them, not all brexiters.
https://tompride.wordpress.com/2018/11/27/more-fake-news-from-mainstream-journalists-trying-to-influence-brexit/?fbclid=IwAR0nOF22CGM35X8zvO-F_vRJqwqr84TR-7-ZVDBW_72jqq36xjen79Swadg
I’m sure it’s all “project fear” though.
It will also highlight the sheer folly of pulling the trigger on Article 50 so prematurely by May. It was the biggest and best bargaining tool her government had and she threw it away on day one. The ruling by the ECJ will almost certainly codify the EUs currently position that they don't shift their negotiating stance once Article 50 is triggered, ensuring any and all negotiations happen before a country triggers Article 50.
Article 50
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html