2014 - Scottish referendum 2015 - general election 2016 - EU referendum 2017 - snap general election 2018 - Tony watt's contract expires, target 2k announced and Thomas Driesen elected president of FIFA
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
Low Turnout Tories will get their biggest majority since the 80's Labour will take a battering but still be comfortably the opposition party with 150+ seats Lib Dems will gain but still have significantly less seats than prior to 2015. SNP will lose seats but still be by far the biggest party in Scotland Greens will still have 1 seat. UKIP - 0.
2014 - Scottish referendum 2015 - general election 2016 - EU referendum 2017 - I (yep me) get made a Mod 2017 - snap general election 2018 - Tony watt's contract expires, target 2k announced and Thomas Driesen elected president of FIFA
My prediction is UKIP will be wiped out, Lib Dems will pick up a few seats as the anti-Brexit party (bit late though), Labour will be absolutely buggered sideways and the Tories will win a significantly increased majority. SNP with slightly reduced number of seats but still easily in control north of the border.
Whom do you think the SNP will lose seats to?
I think the Scottish Tories might pick up a couple.
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
Gonna be hard for Labour to lose many seats in Scotland. They only have one.
Nobody who is against Brexit will vote for a party supported by a man who is clearly in favour of Brexit.
Low Turnout Tories will get their biggest majority since the 80's Labour will take a battering but still be comfortably the opposition party with 150+ seats Lib Dems will gain but still have significantly less seats than prior to 2015. SNP will lose seats but still be by far the biggest party in Scotland Greens will still have 1 seat. UKIP - 0.
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
Yes, but about a million of those Brexit voters have died since the referendum vote. Actually, I have no idea how many have died, but it will be a lot more than the number of Remain voters who have died.
Low Turnout Tories will get their biggest majority since the 80's Labour will take a battering but still be comfortably the opposition party with 150+ seats Lib Dems will gain but still have significantly less seats than prior to 2015. SNP will lose seats but still be by far the biggest party in Scotland Greens will still have 1 seat. UKIP - 0.
Agree with most of this. I think turnout may be reasonable. My predictions:
Tories: 40% about 400 seats Labour: 25% about 200 seats Lib Dems: 13% about 30 seats UKIP: 10% 0 seats SNP: 55 seats
A lot depends on just how bad Labour's campaign is and if it is able to maintain any semblance at all of unity.
even if I lived in Scotland I wouldn't vote for that moaning Sturge face. "blah blah wee referendum, blah blah voted for Europe blah blah Westminster laws blah blah ark the no vote SNP and be fan dabi dozi"
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
You mean the areas where many people live, presumably.
An awful lot of people live in the "blue" areas as well...
Low Turnout Tories will get their biggest majority since the 80's Labour will take a battering but still be comfortably the opposition party with 150+ seats Lib Dems will gain but still have significantly less seats than prior to 2015. SNP will lose seats but still be by far the biggest party in Scotland Greens will still have 1 seat. UKIP - 0.
Came on this thread to write exactly that, agree with all of that. Only possible thing that could change that is if Corbyn gets kicked out in the next week or so and Labour manage to parachute in a credible candidate, which I don't think is likely as a) they don't really have any credible candidates (and even less who would take it), and even then, I think people will want to The Tories to see this through now they have started.
Expect Lib Dems to make significant gains. UKIP will get a seat if Farage is leader, won't if he isn't (personal guess there)
Maybe if Maisey wins with the expected large majority she will need to pander less to the extreme Tory right (Redwood, Rees Mogg, Cash and the like) and be able to steer the Brexit process in her way. Getting rid of the ineffective likes of Fox, Loathsome and Boris would be a good start. A new cabinet without Jeremey *unt would be a bonus. If nothing else Comrade Corbyn will be history by 10th June.
I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.
You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
Nigel Farage could actually be an MP after June 8th.
Not if he stands in South Thanet he won't. The Tories will win it easily if he's a candidate (and probably regardless).
In other news, cheerio Jeremy.
I was thinking he may run in Clacton (against Carswell).
The UKIP/Brexit donor Arron Banks said he was going to be running against Carswell, whoever runs they'll be third favourite behind the Tory candidate and Carswell (if he runs as an independent.)
If the Lib Dems sell themselves on a Remain ticket this could get interesting, even in constituencies which are pro-Brexit.
Take my constituency of Braintree for example. It's been blue as long as anybody can remember, and was 60% leave in the EU referendum. Safe seat you would think?
However, 33,523 people voted remain. That's more than the 27,071 votes the current Tory MP was elected with back in 2015. We also need to bear in mind that the leave vote will be split - UKIP will see this as an opportunity to capitalise and will probably play on fears of backsliding on Brexit. In other constituencies there are leave voters who won't bring themselves to vote Tory (or Labour).
It may come down to the strength of the LD campaign, and just how important the EU is to those Remain voters.
Before the referendum, I said that people are often far more motivated to get off their backside and vote for change, rather than for the status quo. This worked in favour of the Brexiteers last time around, but now effectively the tables have turned. Many of those who voted for Remain care more deeply about this than any other issue - this shouldn't be underestimated.
We also shouldn't forget about the 3 million or so EU national who weren't eligible to vote in the referendum, but will be in a General Election.
I think this could backfire on the Tories to be honest!
So who will be the main party leaders, coming in to the Autumn conference season. I am going for...
Tories - Theresa May Labour - John McDonnell LibDems - Tim Farron Ukip - Nigel Farage SNP - Nicola Sturgeon
In your opinion, why do you think they'll be the leaders?
I don't think the Tories will ditch Theresa May. I think Labour will perform worse in 2017 than in 2015 and the leader will have to step down. But I think that the left-leaning membership of the party will support the highest-profile left-leaning name; and my guess is that would be McDonnell. Tim Farron will secure more seats in 2017 than Blegg did in 2015 and will therefore remain as LibDem leader. Ukip will be trounced (there is, clearly, no point in them any more) so Nuttall will be toast. Farage will "reluctantly" step in as "interim caretaker" ((c) Katrien Meire). Nicola Sturgeon is untouchable right now - at least until the next Scottish referendum.
I also very confidently predict that some, most or all of the above will fail to happen!
Comments
2015 - general election
2016 - EU referendum
2017 - snap general election
2018 - Tony watt's contract expires, target 2k announced and Thomas Driesen elected president of FIFA
Low Turnout
Tories will get their biggest majority since the 80's
Labour will take a battering but still be comfortably the opposition party with 150+ seats
Lib Dems will gain but still have significantly less seats than prior to 2015.
SNP will lose seats but still be by far the biggest party in Scotland
Greens will still have 1 seat.
UKIP - 0.
Nobody who is against Brexit will vote for a party supported by a man who is clearly in favour of Brexit.
Tories: 40% about 400 seats
Labour: 25% about 200 seats
Lib Dems: 13% about 30 seats
UKIP: 10% 0 seats
SNP: 55 seats
A lot depends on just how bad Labour's campaign is and if it is able to maintain any semblance at all of unity.
"blah blah wee referendum, blah blah voted for Europe blah blah Westminster laws blah blah ark the no vote SNP and be fan dabi dozi"
Expect Lib Dems to make significant gains.
UKIP will get a seat if Farage is leader, won't if he isn't (personal guess there)
If nothing else Comrade Corbyn will be history by 10th June.
Take my constituency of Braintree for example. It's been blue as long as anybody can remember, and was 60% leave in the EU referendum. Safe seat you would think?
However, 33,523 people voted remain. That's more than the 27,071 votes the current Tory MP was elected with back in 2015. We also need to bear in mind that the leave vote will be split - UKIP will see this as an opportunity to capitalise and will probably play on fears of backsliding on Brexit. In other constituencies there are leave voters who won't bring themselves to vote Tory (or Labour).
It may come down to the strength of the LD campaign, and just how important the EU is to those Remain voters.
Before the referendum, I said that people are often far more motivated to get off their backside and vote for change, rather than for the status quo. This worked in favour of the Brexiteers last time around, but now effectively the tables have turned. Many of those who voted for Remain care more deeply about this than any other issue - this shouldn't be underestimated.
We also shouldn't forget about the 3 million or so EU national who weren't eligible to vote in the referendum, but will be in a General Election.
I think this could backfire on the Tories to be honest!
I think Labour will perform worse in 2017 than in 2015 and the leader will have to step down. But I think that the left-leaning membership of the party will support the highest-profile left-leaning name; and my guess is that would be McDonnell.
Tim Farron will secure more seats in 2017 than Blegg did in 2015 and will therefore remain as LibDem leader.
Ukip will be trounced (there is, clearly, no point in them any more) so Nuttall will be toast. Farage will "reluctantly" step in as "interim caretaker" ((c) Katrien Meire).
Nicola Sturgeon is untouchable right now - at least until the next Scottish referendum.
I also very confidently predict that some, most or all of the above will fail to happen!