VAUXHALL this nonsense?? If the Aussies can’t afFORD to buy the club maybe we should FOCUS our attention on the British consortium. CORSA that is dependent on them existing
I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt. The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property. In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
I'm sure there is mileage in this one for driving puns
I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt. The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property. In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
could it be as simple as the fact the club (CAFC) think that the Aussies need to submit paperwork to the EFL, whereas its actually the club (CAFC) who sends the FAPT papers.
I've said on here numerous times over the past few months that I blame the Aussies. Their silence on all this is deafening. It would be breaking no NDA's to come out and say if they have or have not submitted papers or are still looking for investors. They had the brass neck to turn up at the Shrewsbury games, buy scarves as if they we "one of us", talk to fans to gauge opinion but then.....................FECKING NOTHING. NOT A SOUND.
I think next week I'll go to Newcastle, buy a scarf & chat up some Geordie's. That would put Mike Ashley in a spin.
Would the papers that the EFL are apparently waiting on, be the completion of sale? Perhaps this is why it is mentioned that it is the Australians documentation that is holding it up.
@PragueAddick I think your analogy is flawed, although that's how it should work.
Let me give an example of why. If you, owned a successful creative business in say, Prague. You have been operating in that area for a long time and have highly skilled and well regarded team. You also have a great deal of good will and credibility in the market place. Now I want a bit of this pie, in normal business I have two choices. I either
A) buy your business off you for a value of the fixed assets plus the value we agree for the skill and good will.
set up my own office and organically build my business over many years, probably with out ever being seen as the market leader.
Now as its football clubs we are talking about option c becomes an possibility
C) I happen to have a massive bank account and an ego to match. I am not going to offer to buy your business, I am going to set up my own, pay all my staff double what yours are on and charge half the price for any work that we carry out. Once you go out of business I can adjust back to what the market dictates.
Now if I want a London based football club, option b and c aren't realistically open to me. However if I had say £200 million to play with over 5 years, then I wanted to sell the club as a Premier league club for £250 million would the following formula not be valid.
Cost price + investment needed = £200 million
If I thought I could get Charlton into the Premier league with a loss of £160 million, and I could achieve the £250 million selling price, wouldn't £40 million be a fair price?
Why football clubs don't compare to normal business is most football clubs opporate to run at a loss, it really is bonkers when you think about it.
I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt. The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property. In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt. The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property. In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
any chance you could encourage someone to purchase charlton? 😀
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
Thanks @alburyaddick for the insightful and professional information.
You mentioned that "He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m".
That's an interesting take on things if he is valuing the club just by its property assets (tangible and easier to make comparisons with the market) and not as a football club (how much is a piece of string worth?).
Any property agents or surveyors out there able to value the Valley and Sparrows Lane with and without planning permission for housing?
I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt. The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property. In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
any chance you could encourage someone to purchase charlton? 😀
Alas I wish I could- unfortunately buying a football club in most of the Premiership and certainly the Championship and lower leagues only really attracts three potential buyers a) chancers/ total gamblers like slater, jiminez and cash or b) people looking to launder overseas monies or c) people with hubris like you know who. I’m generalising and I’m sure there are others like Steve Gibson at Boro who have lost millions and continue to do so for love but they are few and far between and getting rarer.
All the while the takeover won't affect the clubs on pitch performance i.e before the transfer window reopens i'm happy for Roland to keep losing money. A December takeover for less money than Roland wants is ideal, means he loses another £3m before the sale
@PragueAddick I think your analogy is flawed, although that's how it should work.
Let me give an example of why. If you, owned a successful creative business in say, Prague. You have been operating in that area for a long time and have highly skilled and well regarded team. You also have a great deal of good will and credibility in the market place. Now I want a bit of this pie, in normal business I have two choices. I either
A) buy your business off you for a value of the fixed assets plus the value we agree for the skill and good will.
set up my own office and organically build my business over many years, probably with out ever being seen as the market leader.
Now as its football clubs we are talking about option c becomes an possibility
C) I happen to have a massive bank account and an ego to match. I am not going to offer to buy your business, I am going to set up my own, pay all my staff double what yours are on and charge half the price for any work that we carry out. Once you go out of business I can adjust back to what the market dictates.
Now if I want a London based football club, option b and c aren't realistically open to me. However if I had say £200 million to play with over 5 years, then I wanted to sell the club as a Premier league club for £250 million would the following formula not be valid.
Cost price + investment needed = £200 million
If I thought I could get Charlton into the Premier league with a loss of £160 million, and I could achieve the £250 million selling price, wouldn't £40 million be a fair price?
Why football clubs don't compare to normal business is most football clubs opporate to run at a loss, it really is bonkers when you think about it.
Where’s the football equivalent of Trigger when you need him!
Let's forget about the advertising agency analogy :-)
There are two reasons why someone might insist on buying a London based club. One is that the owner might live there. The Ukrainian oligarch in late 2013 was an example. But more commonly London clubs are presumed to attract a premium simply because they are generally presumed to be better revenue-earners than say Middleborough or Sunderland, but mainly in the corporate hospitality area. Thats what RM explained to me a while ago, and is the key reason why the porn merchants wanted the Olympic Stadium. The Valley is relatively light on corporate capacity, and, I'm told, difficult to build more into it.
So if the thinking of the owner is hard commercial, then he will know what his London premium is worth. Given that Wigan went for £20m, and are now a division higher, you are implying that the premium is 100%. Pretty heroic assumption that. If you ask the quiet Russian owner of Bournemouth (capacity 11,000) what he thinks of your premium, he will probably reply with the Russian version of "good luck with that one, mate". TV money is location-blind.
@PragueAddick I think your analogy is flawed, although that's how it should work.
Let me give an example of why. If you, owned a successful creative business in say, Prague. You have been operating in that area for a long time and have highly skilled and well regarded team. You also have a great deal of good will and credibility in the market place. Now I want a bit of this pie, in normal business I have two choices. I either
A) buy your business off you for a value of the fixed assets plus the value we agree for the skill and good will.
set up my own office and organically build my business over many years, probably with out ever being seen as the market leader.
Now as its football clubs we are talking about option c becomes an possibility
C) I happen to have a massive bank account and an ego to match. I am not going to offer to buy your business, I am going to set up my own, pay all my staff double what yours are on and charge half the price for any work that we carry out. Once you go out of business I can adjust back to what the market dictates.
Now if I want a London based football club, option b and c aren't realistically open to me. However if I had say £200 million to play with over 5 years, then I wanted to sell the club as a Premier league club for £250 million would the following formula not be valid.
Cost price + investment needed = £200 million
If I thought I could get Charlton into the Premier league with a loss of £160 million, and I could achieve the £250 million selling price, wouldn't £40 million be a fair price?
Why football clubs don't compare to normal business is most football clubs opporate to run at a loss, it really is bonkers when you think about it.
Where’s the football equivalent of Trigger when you need him!
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
If you were Roland, then you'd surely have realised by now that the club in league one is not going to get you 40m.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
If you were Roland, then you'd surely have realised by now that the club in league one is not going to get you 40m.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
If not, take 25m now and fuck off.
The latter option, please, Roland.....
....before any more loyal staff totally lose it and depart.
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
If you were Roland, then you'd surely have realised by now that the club in league one is not going to get you 40m.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
If not, take 25m now and fuck off.
Unless he has been offered £40m by two separate parties, as some on here claim.
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
If you were Roland, then you'd surely have realised by now that the club in league one is not going to get you 40m.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
If not, take 25m now and fuck off.
Unless he has been offered £40m by two separate parties, as some on here claim.
So if he has why hasn't he taken the money (from one if them) and slunk off back to the land of moules and frittes?
Russian billionaire, owner of Bournemouth, lives in sandbanks. I would suggest he chose that club as he lives there?
Secondly 100% premium on Charlton over Wigan purley on corporate hospitality is fanciful I agree.
To use your first point more billionaires live in London than Wigan so the resale in my previous point, would be easier to achieve?
Also to suggest that it is 100% on that basis alone, would be to agree everything else between the 2 is equal, it clearly isn't.
Lastly if you were say, Australian, and you want a club near a big expat community, London would be preferable ;-)
I am not saying the club is worth £40 million, or even close, I am saying I can see how you could argue it is and that "normal business valuation" doesn't fit football.
Covered End - tbh I’d have to do a bit more homework,but I would have thought that c £20- 25m in the current market would be about right, but valuing football clubs is certainly an anomaly- after all the buyers are paying £20-25m to buy the right to lose another c £10m a year which is totally bizarre. In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year. Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
If you were Roland, then you'd surely have realised by now that the club in league one is not going to get you 40m.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
If not, take 25m now and fuck off.
Nothing makes sense After selling Josh and konsa for a combined fee of £82.50 two players with could of done with this season for the promotion push. I could understand him selling these players for decent money and putting the money in his pocket but the money he got kept the club going for what a month. He should of spent a couple of quid in August. If still here in January spend a couple of million for the push if it doesn't come off sell everyone in May
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The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property.
In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.
50p and a lb of grapes
In most business purchases, in order to justify a price of £20-25m you’d expect the business to be actually making a profit !! of probably c £2m to £3m a year.
Football club purchases generally defy any business logic because they are a relatively quick way to become poor or broke.
I've said on here numerous times over the past few months that I blame the Aussies. Their silence on all this is deafening. It would be breaking no NDA's to come out and say if they have or have not submitted papers or are still looking for investors. They had the brass neck to turn up at the Shrewsbury games, buy scarves as if they we "one of us", talk to fans to gauge opinion but then.....................FECKING NOTHING. NOT A SOUND.
I think next week I'll go to Newcastle, buy a scarf & chat up some Geordie's. That would put Mike Ashley in a spin.
Let me give an example of why. If you, owned a successful creative business in say, Prague. You have been operating in that area for a long time and have highly skilled and well regarded team. You also have a great deal of good will and credibility in the market place. Now I want a bit of this pie, in normal business I have two choices. I either
A) buy your business off you for a value of the fixed assets plus the value we agree for the skill and good will.
Now as its football clubs we are talking about option c becomes an possibility
C) I happen to have a massive bank account and an ego to match. I am not going to offer to buy your business, I am going to set up my own, pay all my staff double what yours are on and charge half the price for any work that we carry out. Once you go out of business I can adjust back to what the market dictates.
Now if I want a London based football club, option b and c aren't realistically open to me. However if I had say £200 million to play with over 5 years, then I wanted to sell the club as a Premier league club for £250 million would the following formula not be valid.
Cost price + investment needed = £200 million
If I thought I could get Charlton into the Premier league with a loss of £160 million, and I could achieve the £250 million selling price, wouldn't £40 million be a fair price?
Why football clubs don't compare to normal business is most football clubs opporate to run at a loss, it really is bonkers when you think about it.
You mentioned that "He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m".
That's an interesting take on things if he is valuing the club just by its property assets (tangible and easier to make comparisons with the market) and not as a football club (how much is a piece of string worth?).
Any property agents or surveyors out there able to value the Valley and Sparrows Lane with and without planning permission for housing?
a) chancers/ total gamblers like slater, jiminez and cash or b) people looking to launder overseas monies or c) people with hubris like you know who.
I’m generalising and I’m sure there are others like Steve Gibson at Boro
who have lost millions and continue to do so for love but they are few and far between and getting rarer.
Let's forget about the advertising agency analogy :-)
There are two reasons why someone might insist on buying a London based club. One is that the owner might live there. The Ukrainian oligarch in late 2013 was an example. But more commonly London clubs are presumed to attract a premium simply because they are generally presumed to be better revenue-earners than say Middleborough or Sunderland, but mainly in the corporate hospitality area. Thats what RM explained to me a while ago, and is the key reason why the porn merchants wanted the Olympic Stadium. The Valley is relatively light on corporate capacity, and, I'm told, difficult to build more into it.
So if the thinking of the owner is hard commercial, then he will know what his London premium is worth. Given that Wigan went for £20m, and are now a division higher, you are implying that the premium is 100%. Pretty heroic assumption that. If you ask the quiet Russian owner of Bournemouth (capacity 11,000) what he thinks of your premium, he will probably reply with the Russian version of "good luck with that one, mate". TV money is location-blind.
Why not spend 1-2m in January to go for promotion, then you'd have a much better chance of getting your 40m as a championship side in the summer.
If not, take 25m now and fuck off.
....before any more loyal staff totally lose it and depart.
Secondly 100% premium on Charlton over Wigan purley on corporate hospitality is fanciful I agree.
To use your first point more billionaires live in London than Wigan so the resale in my previous point, would be easier to achieve?
Also to suggest that it is 100% on that basis alone, would be to agree everything else between the 2 is equal, it clearly isn't.
Lastly if you were say, Australian, and you want a club near a big expat community, London would be preferable ;-)
I am not saying the club is worth £40 million, or even close, I am saying I can see how you could argue it is and that "normal business valuation" doesn't fit football.
After selling Josh and konsa for a combined fee of £82.50 two players with could of done with this season for the promotion push.
I could understand him selling these players for decent money and putting the money in his pocket but the money he got kept the club going for what a month.
He should of spent a couple of quid in August.
If still here in January spend a couple of million for the push if it doesn't come off sell everyone in May