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Grand National 2017
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Sain
You and me bothValleyGary said:Saint Are 40/1 for me.
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SPOILER/RESULT
14.50 Phew, Might Bite holds off Whisper again, very similar to at Cheltenham.0 -
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Sad to hear Peanuts isn't sharing his wisdom this year, I hope he's ok, the man's an absolute legend. In his absence I guess it's back to blindly picking based on names tomorrow in corals.....1
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Had to go for One For Arthur0
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Anyone else watch "the virtual grand national" on itv4 earlier.
They used form, stats, data, patterns and systems to create a simulation of the race with all the runners etc.
Input from jockeys, trainers, tipsters and journalists all into a computer and pressed play.
A full grand national race shown, including commentary.
Detail was incredible...loose horses continuing running and getting in the way, the ambulances following round the course, even people coming on after the horses passed to repair the fences for the next circuit.
20 of the 40 horses finished the "race"
Cause of causes got the win, came from nowhere really.
Pleasant Company, Vieux Lion Rouge and Vicente chased home.1 -
Didn't watch it but with any race, they can't account for luck and misfortune. 40 horses taking one fence at a time, anything can happen. Absolutely lottery.0
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Oh 100%
Picking horses with a pin has probably the same chance of finding a winner.
Read about 20 different systems and you'll get 20 different winners haha1 -
I've done these 4 for the big race all ew
LORD WINDERMERE
WOUNDED WARRIOR
VICENTE
ROGUE ANGEL
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Does anyone know if you can choose as many horses as you want to get the bet365 offer up to £125 refund. Cheers0
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Yep, you canNicholas said:Does anyone know if you can choose as many horses as you want to get the bet365 offer up to £125 refund. Cheers
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Cheers mate0
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I backed 4 and got the 50% refund on them all. Don't forget the midday deadline & that their site may well start lagging, near to midday.Nicholas said:Does anyone know if you can choose as many horses as you want to get the bet365 offer up to £125 refund. Cheers
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Cheers mate, just done them, The refund was instant as well.0
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Gutted that Peanuts has deserted over contraversy with Brexit where nobody knows fuck all about fuck all including the Tories started the thing with no idea of consequenses. I hope I wasn't one that pushed him over the edge. The best thread on CL ever. I think. Or what was the one about "should I contact my ex". Tel?0
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Anyone who followed my advice will already be a few hundred pounds up. But for those who insist on looking for a winner i have narrowed it down to two.
The Last Samuri - has a great chance if the weight doesn't beat him
Cause of Causes - has the best winning profile1 -
But where is the finite analysis, horse by horse of their history and chances. FFS Peanuts give us a punt.len90 said:Anyone who followed my advice will already be a few hundred pounds up. But for those who insist on looking for a winner i have narrowed it down to two.
The Last Samuri - has a great chance if the weight doesn't beat him
Cause of Causes - has the best winning profile0 -
Blimey…I take a timeout and you lot start blubbing like a bunch of schoolgirls.
Morning Ladies and Gents.
The truth is I don’t participate in CL anymore – too much bile in arguments that are going to change absolutely nothing, including anyone’s mind.
And I haven’t run my model this year for 2 reasons:
1. Mainly, I’m very heavily involved in a voluntary organisation that takes up most of my time.
2. IMHO, the changes made to the GN post-2012 have changed the nature of the race and made trend-based models not well attuned yet to the new conditions, particularly when the going is good. There is simply not a big enough sample of results yet to use confidently a stats-model and, as it takes a shed load of time to crunch the numbers and as I reckoned that we were unlikely to get a second soft ground GN in a row, I decided back at Christmas to give it a miss.
So, I come on this morning to see what you guys are thinking about it and had a good laugh at some of the stuff.
BTW, Dan – you are totally wrong to think that I didn’t share the enjoyment of it. And, like you, it was nothing to do with making money – simply outsmarting the market and so-called experts in the racing media.
So, no model, but I had some each-way bets a few weeks ago on runners that took my fancy and covered a range of going conditions.
They are (in no particular order):
CAUSE OF CAUSES 16/1 – other than The Last Samuri (too much weight for him), the only one of the market fancies with form at 4m. Good win in the X-Country (Silver Birch 2nd in X-C before winning GN in 2007 for same trainer). Handled the occasion well as a 7 y-o 2 years ago, when staying on 8th under quiet ride from Carberry.
SAINT ARE 40/1 – in form, trainer in form, great record over the fences on a decent surface – close 2nd to Many Clouds 2 years ago. Could look a silly price come 5.24pm today.
RAZ DE MAREE 40/1 – bottomless stamina - if it were 3 laps of the course he’d be a shoe-in. Forget that he’s 12, he’s in best form of his career, with a great staying-on close 2nd to Native River in the Welsh Nat (on better ground than usually seen at Chepstow) and win in the Cork National (like Vics Canvas last year). Nice run, staying on 8th, in the GN 3 years ago. Softer ground would have been much preferred but hey-ho – take 6 places if you can.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 50/1 – career marked by impressive near-misses – close 2nd to Many Clouds in 2014 Hennessy giving him weight, notable 2nd to Coneygree in 2015 giving him weight. Placed in this season’s Welsh National and Midlands National (plugged on gamely under topweight). Thought to need soft ground but has good form on quick surfaces when a youngster. Runs off a nice handicap mark these days. Main concern is that he has tended to go best when fresh but today he’ll be carrying the lightest weight he’s ever shouldered in a chase. Could it be another Mon Mome for Venetia?
Good luck ladies and gents but be warned: no model, just my unreliable nose. So, CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound.
Maybe see you next year :O)
COYR
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Glad you're safe and well Peanuts !2
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Great to hear from you Peanuts.
Now, what odds will I get on CAVEAT EMPTOR?11 - Sponsored links:
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Nice to hear from you1
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Good to see you back Peanuts. Gone with your picks as I've had a mental week and no time whatsoever to do my own picks.1
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Thank f... your back peanuts.1
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Is there a code for that 365 offer or does it just happen...? Can't see it mentioned on the app0
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Glad to hear you're OK Peanuts.
More stats for you this year to get back in the saddle for the 2018 race. Really missed your annual thread this year.3 -
Yay Peanuts!!
Glad you are well.1 -
Oi oi peanuts
So glad you've gone with Saint Are as I've already backed him1 -
The world has righted itself, welcome back PM.1
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No code. Just place the bet I believeWSS said:Is there a code for that 365 offer or does it just happen...? Can't see it mentioned on the app
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