With the transfer window about to close everyone's debating whether we now have the squad to get into the playoffs.
Personally, being an optimistic type, I think we might at least get close. We're playing with more energy and confidence (and ability?) than we have for some time. Or could be argued we're a few player short of having a promotion winning squad?
I'd rate our chances of getting promoted at around 8/1 but Paddy Power (other bookies are available) are less impressed with our chances.
Sheff Utd 1/7
Scunthorpe 4/11
Bolton Evens
Bradford 11/4
Miiiilwalll 9/2
Rochdale 11/2
Fleetwood Town 13/2
Charlton 14/1
Peterborough 14/1
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Comments
I've often said recently that we need to ensure that we get into the Play-Offs at the right time i.e. A February charge to see us catch everyone would be great followed by a mini-slump as we drop points at Sheffield United etc. in March
April then sees us recover to go on a second unbeaten run to confirm our place allowing us to continue that form into the Play-Offs
Yes, we can.
Just need all the protests to stop and everyone to get behind Slade.
Last season, by way of example, the team in sixth place at the end of the season got 74 points. (So did the team in seventh.) They were a little adrift: the team in fifth had eighty points. But let's target 74.
We are currently in eleventh place with 39 points. So to get to 74, (which may or may not be enough) we need another 35 points from 19 games. An average of 1.85 points per game. The snag is that teams above us who have all performed better than us so far, now need less points to get to 74 points. Bolton and Fleetwood only need 24, Bradford 25, Rochdale 29 and Southend 31. Those are average points per game 1.27, 1.41, 1.47, 1.53 and 1.72 respectively.
The form of Bolton and Fleetwood would have to fail catastrophically for us to overhaul them, so let's ignore them. But even if Bradford, Rochdale and Southend all slumped badly we would still need to achieve a big upswing in form AND do better than two of Bristol Rovers, Peterborough and Millwall.
Now the last six games we've won three, drawn two and lost one: a pretty fair performance. But still only an average points per game figure of 1.83. Less than we need.
So, in a word, no. We won't make the play offs unless something remarkable happens. Which explains the odds.
Its Rochdale and Millwall that threaten our attempt at 6th and a win at Spotland next Tuesday will be huge, Millwall you've got to hope will exhaust themselves in this pointless FA Cup campaign whilst Bradford are usually a dead cert for the Play-Offs
You cant rule out Bolton falling away though, they've got a much stronger team but last season you would have thought it was a three way battle between Coventry | Walsall | Gillingham for the automatic spots and only Walsall secured the Play-Offs
With our budget and in the third tier top six is MINIMUM we should be achieving.
We can make the Play Offs.
That's not to say we won't have little runs of 3/4 games unbeaten but I think we have too many draws in us (i.e. haven't quite got the squad to turn those draws into wins)
start of the season it was minimum to get play offs, just another failure by dusty and his sidekick. hopefully he will sell at the end of the season.
end of feb we will know where were heading i think.
I know that success on the field brings the fans in so it is possible that it isn't the fans coming that brings success, but with the current owners driving down our attendances we have lost something that would have helped our chances.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the increased sense of atmosphere when we've had bigger protests has led to better results than when the ground is half empty, and you can hear some fart in the stand opposite.
As for the initial question, I don't think we can make the playoffs when we are hamstrung by the current ownership believing that they are cleverer than everyone else, and can be successful with a smaller squad, and more youth players in our team.
It's obvious that Robinson knows he needs another top quality (for our level) player and it is looking more and more likely that we will end up with another loan player that will need six games before we even know what he can deliver.
Realistically I can't see us getting anywhere near being promoted until those running our club have a complete rethink about their goals. I can't see the current owners doing that so I think we are stuck in the third division until RD sells and KM is moved on.
(Sheffield United just behind 2ppg)
Teams that have done it for a shorter spell of 20 games - Bolton (ok, they're good). And Rochdale.
Fleetwood and Southend have both gone just under 2ppg for a 20 game spell too.
So it has been achieved by the less fancied teams in this league too and is possible.
Doesn't mean we'll do it of course and I think we won't without more bodies incoming today but it's possible.
We're capable of beating all three of them but whether we do it is another matter.
None of the teams around us are consistently good, we just need to become good at nicking wins. Bolton was potentially a breakthrough, as it's the sort of result - a narrow away win with 10 men - that you need to rack up points.
It's a joke, some people find it funny, you don't. No big deal.