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What are the odds of a couple's second child being a boy?

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  • Fuck that, this question on the Wiki page gets into Bayesian theory and if I understood that properly then bye bye current job and hello to high stakes poker in Monte Carlo.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox#Bayesian_analysis
  • I got one - If a cowboy rides into town on a Tuesday and stays for 2 nights, how can he also leave on a Tuesday?

    No cheating
  • I got one - If a cowboy rides into town on a Tuesday and stays for 2 nights, how can he also leave on a Tuesday?

    No cheating

    Name of the horse?
  • lol Olduns are the best
  • These quizy threads are giving me the urge to do a Whose Rack?
  • Chizz has edited the original question, meaning the first 50 posts look totally wrong now anyway. Poor form.

    I'm going to start a thread asking "Should Roland sell the club" then when everyone has posted "YES OH GOD YES" I will change the question to "Should the Brexit thread be reopened?"
  • OK here's another conundrum.

    You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?
  • Fiiish said:

    OK here's another conundrum.

    You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?

    Non Binary?
  • Fiiish said:

    OK here's another conundrum.

    You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?

    Bungalow.
    :smiley:
  • How many elephants can you fit in a Mini?
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  • How many elephants can you fit in a Mini?

    Depends how thinly you slice them.
  • Chizz said:

    PaddyP17 said:

    @Chizz

    You seem to think it's 33%. Why?

    You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).

    It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.

    @Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.

    There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.

    So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
    Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question. :wink:
    The very first answer was correct
  • edited January 2017

    Chizz said:

    PaddyP17 said:

    @Chizz

    You seem to think it's 33%. Why?

    You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).

    It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.

    @Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.

    There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.

    So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
    Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question. :wink:
    The very first answer was correct
    Isn't Burlington Bertie 'hundred to thirty'?
    Also, the wording of the OP was different then...
    :smile:
  • Chelsea play in Fulham
  • Chizz said:

    PaddyP17 said:

    @Chizz

    You seem to think it's 33%. Why?

    You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).

    It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.

    @Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.

    There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.

    So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
    Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question. :wink:
    The very first answer was correct
    Isn't Burlington Bertie 'hundred to thirty'?
    Also, the wording of the OP was different then...
    :smile:
    He kept changing it but the first answer was still right
  • How is hundred to thirty correct?
  • How is hundred to thirty correct?

    Close enough. I took it to mean 1/3
  • How is hundred to thirty correct?

    Close enough. I took it to mean 1/3
    Haha!
    No. If your probability in a two horse race is 1/3, then your theoretical odds would be 2 to 1. 100-30 is 3 and a bit to one which equates to a probability of about 23%. So not even close.
  • In a week when the BMA have advised their members not to refer to their pregnant patience as 'expectant mothers' and to use instead the more socially acceptable term 'pregnant people', I find this thread highly inappropriate and deeply offensive on so many levels.

    Disappointed, France.

    Pregnant patience?
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