Fuck that, this question on the Wiki page gets into Bayesian theory and if I understood that properly then bye bye current job and hello to high stakes poker in Monte Carlo.
Chizz has edited the original question, meaning the first 50 posts look totally wrong now anyway. Poor form.
I'm going to start a thread asking "Should Roland sell the club" then when everyone has posted "YES OH GOD YES" I will change the question to "Should the Brexit thread be reopened?"
You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?
You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?
You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?
You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).
It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.
@Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.
There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.
So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question.
You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).
It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.
@Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.
There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.
So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question.
The very first answer was correct
Isn't Burlington Bertie 'hundred to thirty'? Also, the wording of the OP was different then...
You're employing the gambler's fallacy, that outcome B is contingent on outcome A (i.e. the roulette wheel was red that spin, so it's more likely to be black this time).
It's not the case, and biologically speaking, is generally 50/50 as to whether a kid is a boy or girl, regardless of gender of previous child.
@Dazzler21 has spelt it out precisely and accurately.
There are four, equally-likely scenarios for people having two children. The fact that one is a boy disqualifies one of those four, leaving three, equally-likely scenarios. It can be 1. Boy-Boy, 2. Boy-Girl or 3. Girl-Boy.
So there are twice as many scenarios in which the "other" child is a girl. Hence, 33%.
Yeah. An hour and a half after me. And after you changed the question.
The very first answer was correct
Isn't Burlington Bertie 'hundred to thirty'? Also, the wording of the OP was different then...
He kept changing it but the first answer was still right
Haha! No. If your probability in a two horse race is 1/3, then your theoretical odds would be 2 to 1. 100-30 is 3 and a bit to one which equates to a probability of about 23%. So not even close.
In a week when the BMA have advised their members not to refer to their pregnant patience as 'expectant mothers' and to use instead the more socially acceptable term 'pregnant people', I find this thread highly inappropriate and deeply offensive on so many levels.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox#Bayesian_analysis
No cheating
I'm going to start a thread asking "Should Roland sell the club" then when everyone has posted "YES OH GOD YES" I will change the question to "Should the Brexit thread be reopened?"
You are standing at a tram points by a bungalow. An out-of-control tram is coming towards the points where it will hit a family of four stuck on the tracks. The family will be spared if you change the points, but it will instead hit a lone person walking up the tracks. If you do this, the tram will then hit a door, revealing a goat. A man will then tell you that behind two other doors is another goat and a Ferrari. In the Ferrari there are a large number of unpaired socks of five different designs. By the time you are told all of this, it is too late to save the family from a tram coming in the opposite direction. What colour were the stairs?
Also, the wording of the OP was different then...
No. If your probability in a two horse race is 1/3, then your theoretical odds would be 2 to 1. 100-30 is 3 and a bit to one which equates to a probability of about 23%. So not even close.