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Weather forecasting

letthegoodtimesrollletthegoodtimesroll
in Fun, Jokes & Captions
Has weather forecasting in this country become totally useless ? Apart from the infamous 'hurricane' remark back in 1987 I've always thought the weather forecast in the UK has been pretty much on the money but just lately it seems to change hour by hour and the only consistency is that it seems to be shit. Apparently at the moment I should be sitting in glorious sunshine instead of the overcast weather that's in the sky. What's going on ? I thought they bought some new super duper computer to make the forecasting more accurate not worse

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    ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    I was going to start a thread on this a few weeks ago. I have a BBC weather app on my phone which often is completely different in forecast to the BBC weather as shown on tv. Strikingly different. I understand that the BBC is ditching The Met Office when it's contract expires in favour of a weather forecast by a Dutch company.

    In the meantime. My BBC weather app is showing full sun for Shooters Hill but I'm currently completely overcast.
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    letthegoodtimesrollletthegoodtimesroll
    I've got a weather channel app on mine and it says I'm sitting in sunshine and 72 degrees instead of a totally cloudy and overcast sky
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    HexHex
    According to the Met Office, their forecast accuracy gets better by a day every 10 years. So, if you go back 10 years and look at the forecast for 2 days ahead then that is the accuracy of today's 3 day forecast. The Met Office have to record the accuracy of their forecasts as it is the main tool in improving the mathematical models (NWP) they use.

    The problem these days is that most people access forecasts via their phones and look at the symbols. Given the complexity of our weather these symbols will rarely give a usable forecast. Avoid them! Look at the text forecast.
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    seth plumseth plum
    I am sure i read somewhere that the weather forecast gets more viewers than the news.
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    HardyAddickHardyAddick
    edited August 2016
    Www.wunderground.com
    Has lots of local weather stations plus radar showing rain
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    man_at_millettsman_at_milletts
    I only ever watch the forecast when Louise Lear does it. Not sure why ;-)
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    newyorkaddicknewyorkaddick
    Each forecaster uses hundreds of predictive models using the same weather data produced by the national weather centres - each model will produce a different forecast so they at best will be able to generate a probabilistic distribution for what the weather will likely be (constantly updated as new data is received).

    By definition there will be times when the actual weather we experience was only assigned a limited probability.

    Given each forecaster has its own different proprietary models it shouldn't be a surprise that each forecast is different.
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    charltonkestoncharltonkeston
    Living on an island in the North Atlantic you can expect a bit of rain coupled with a bit of fine weather in the summer and the rest of the year more rain and less sunshine but it will probably be quite windy all year. But for the whole year temperatures won't be too hot or too cold. Wonderful country to live in.
    That's my long and short range weather forecast.
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    MacronateMacronate
    Weather in the UK has changed dramatically since Brexit.

    Must be difficult for Fish, Kettley etc now.
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    newyorkaddicknewyorkaddick
    charltonkeston said:

    Living on an island in the North Atlantic you can expect a bit of rain coupled with a bit of fine weather in the summer and the rest of the year more rain and less sunshine but it will probably be quite windy all year. But for the whole year temperatures won't be too hot or too cold. Wonderful country to live in.
    That's my long and short range weather forecast.

    I love our climate too (though could do with more daylight in the winter).

    However when you consider we are on the same latitude as Newfoundland, we had hope the changes in the environment don't bugger up the Gulfstream.
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    man_at_millettsman_at_milletts
    .
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    man_at_millettsman_at_milletts
    A lot of our hot air comes from Belgium, allegedly.
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    red_murphred_murph
    Meant to be thunderstorms here in Wallington. Glorious sunshine.

    We need to go back to the days of magnetic clouds on boards.
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    killerandflashkillerandflash
    letthegoodtimesroll said:

    Has weather forecasting in this country become totally useless ? Apart from the infamous 'hurricane' remark back in 1987 I've always thought the weather forecast in the UK has been pretty much on the money but just lately it seems to change hour by hour and the only consistency is that it seems to be shit. Apparently at the moment I should be sitting in glorious sunshine instead of the overcast weather that's in the sky. What's going on ? I thought they bought some new super duper computer to make the forecasting more accurate not worse

    Well the forecast for "London" on the BBC website has cloud with the odd sunny interval, which sounds like what you're experiencing!
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