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Official 2016 Grand National Thread
Comments
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Im really struggling to see Silviniaco Conti getting the trip and was one of the first of the fancied horses i eliminated0
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The furthest trip SC's run is in the Gold Cup, 3 times. Best performance in it on helpful Good ground in 2014 (commonly acknowledged to be a poor renewal) saw him wander off a straight line and overhauled up the hill, eliciting an RPR of 167 and comment by RP analyst that "3m on a flat track represents his ideal conditions".
I agree.
His best form and RPR (top 177) has come at 21~24f, the furthest at relatvely undemanding tracks such as Kempton and Haydock.
Aintree's a flat track but if he couldn't assert at 3m+ 2.5 furlongs, why should he do so at 3m + 10.5 furlongs?
PS Of the "class 3 milers" in the race, as picked out by starinnaddick earlier, IMO Sir Des Champs is the most appealing with 10.13 and at 40/1. With the prospect of a sound surface, which should suit, the return-from-injury doubt appears over-discounted in those odds.1 -
Peanuts I know my flat horses but your knowledge and in depth analysis of jumps for the GN is second to none and I truly take my hat off to you its mesmerising.1
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I see portrait King is running in the Irish national tomorrow am I right in thinking that was one of peanuts selections for the aintree national last year0
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You are dead right dmjn and I'm not the only one on here that has a big soft spot for the old fella.dmjn said:I see portrait King is running in the Irish national tomorrow am I right in thinking that was one of peanuts selections for the aintree national last year
Was going well in the GN but looking a bit one-paced when tipping up 3 out but was particularly unlucky in the Becher chase last Dec. Coming with a big run when jumping into the back of a rival and falling 2 out.
Stats say he's too old and has too many miles on the clock for tomorrow but if I don't have the winner on my ticket I sure as hell hope it's old PK that takes the prize. He deserves a big one.1 -
You're way too kind smiffy.smiffyboy said:Peanuts I know my flat horses but your knowledge and in depth analysis of jumps for the GN is second to none and I truly take my hat off to you its mesmerising.
You and killer do it day in and day out but I'm just a once (or maybe 5 times, with the big staying handicaps) a year geezer.
Anyway, see if you still think so when Siviniaco Conti romps home.
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If Silviniaco wins I will join you Peanuts with egg on our faces1
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Having a nibble on anything in the Irish GN killer?
We were both sweet on Cause Of Causes for Aintree but being top-weight with his penalty today doesn't bode well.
Last 10 renewals, the top-weight's performance reads:
PPPFFP8P8P0 -
In the the last 19 renewals no horse carrying 11st 4lbs or more has won and no horse rated 142 plus has won either so that rules out Cause Of Causes on both them stats Peanuts so no I will be leaving him well alone.To be honest I now have a shortlist of seven for the Irish National!!!
Wrath Of Titans 28/1
Kilford. 28/1
Killer Crow. 14/1
Ballyadam Approach. 50/1
Venetian De Mai. 10/1
Another Hero. 14/1
Jacob 40/1
Surely I don't back them all even though just the winner will give me a profit.......I will have another look after going through the rest of the day's racing.
Peanuts just thought are we going off thread and getting into trouble now..........
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Alert the threadkiller police!!
What the hell. Good record of novices in the Irish GN makes it really tricky getting from the list of Possible to the final picks.
Would never rule out a horse because it's fav but it's a problem if your "Stat-Possibles" include the 2 at the head of the market, as mine did.
Bound to have picked the wrong one!
Good luck killer.1 - Sponsored links:
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One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!0
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Well I think I'm ruling out Jarob now Peanuts so there is the winner everyone!
Good luck Peanuts1 -
Cause Of Causes a Non-runner as is Definite Ruby.
I suspect a cheeky one by Elliott and/or JP to keep weights down for others.
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Got to be a bit careful with bottom of that range Chief. OR's below 128 aren't always represented.AddicktedOne said:One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!
x2 with 127 2015
None 2014
None 2013
None 2012
None 2011
TBH, I'm very happy to have Wrath Of Titans on my slip.
Good luck AddicktedOne.1 -
Tend to agree given yesterday's rain but hey ho.killer kish said:Well I think I'm ruling out Jarob now Peanuts so there is the winner everyone!
Good luck Peanuts0 -
Surely between us all we must get the winner of the Irish National?!2
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Actually Chief, I'd rather use best chase RPRs achieved rather than current ORs for stat purposes as, logically, it could help sort the wheat from the chaff among the lightly-weighted runners.AddicktedOne said:One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!
Interesting little statlet from this trend-analysis of the Irish GN: 9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/irish-grand-national-trends-2016-1458869597
If you modified it to chase RPR134+ ever, all 15 of last 15 winners would comply. Wrath of Titans complies with both versions, scoring a RPR134 in a Grade 1 nov chase in December behind No More Heroes.1 -
Have gone for Bless the Wings and Thunder and Roses both e/w0
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Gone for Ballyadam Approach at 40/10
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Jonjo tells RP after a racecourse gallop for Shutthefrontdoor today: "He's got to get the trip and that's a worry to me. I didn't think he got it last year but he loved the track and jumped great and if he does the same again he'll put up a bold show."
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Gone for a follow-up win for Katie Walsh on Baie Des Iles at 32.0 on Betfair, with a small saver on Portrait King at 42.0.0
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Bu%%er me, what a gutsy win by the old Rogue.
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Lucky Number 8 - all five races at Fairyhouse!0
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Wow, what a finish. A great performance by the winner.0
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mid_life_crisis said:
Gone for Ballyadam Approach at 40/1
Nice one Gents...bad luck StuCharlton_Stu said:Have gone for Bless the Wings and Thunder and Roses both e/w
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Touch had £5 ew on Rogue Angel nail butting finish2
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Well done Smiffy and unlucky Stu,I knew between us we would get the winner. Thought my 50/1 shot was going to do it for a short while0
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Results for my "Hard Stats":
1st - Max no of chases: 15 or less........CRAP
2nd & 3rd - Younger than 11: ......CRAP
Sorry about that Chaps...........back to the drawing board.2 -
Cheers Peanuts. What a finish that was!PeanutsMolloy said:mid_life_crisis said:Gone for Ballyadam Approach at 40/1
Nice one Gents...bad luck StuCharlton_Stu said:Have gone for Bless the Wings and Thunder and Roses both e/w
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