http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/fulham/12131412/Forget-Moneyball-Fulham-are-taking-Football-Manager-approach-in-hope-of-returning-to-big-time.htmlLooks like Phil Chapple has escaped from one set of laptop wankers only to wind up stuck with another one!
While I believe their is a place for statistical analysis in player recruitment, some owners seem to be overly sold on it these days.
Comments
However, this approach has very little value in football because it's so hard to put the data into the proper context.
Aussie Rugby League coach Wayne Bennett has a great line on this, "If someone comes in at half time with a clean stats sheet [meaning they have made no errors] then what that really tells me is they haven't really tried to do anything."
That's the point isn't it? One midfielder might have 100% passing success but those passes could have been 25 sideways passes that took his team nowhere - his team mate might have 50% passing success from 25 passes but three of his passes created clear cut chances.
It's the same with running - John Aldridge tells the story of how he would run himself into the ground closing down defenders until he played with Ian Rush at Liverpool in 1988 who taught him the art of closing off a pass by just moving a few steps to close the angle - saving him a huge amount of effort and running.
Finally, how could data ever measure what a player like Stuart Pearce or Tony Adams - both natural leaders - brought to their teams?
The stats should alert the scouting team, who in turn go and watch the player, who then make the decision
Imagine if you worked for a company that only measured you exclusively on a set of stats. It wouldn't be long before the human part of you started performing to make them stats look good on you. So you'd stop helping people, you'd stop showing empathy and flexibility because they would negatively affect your stats.
Rory Delap tells a good story about OPTA stats as he would always come out high at Stoke. As he pointed out, when you are doing 20 crossfield runs to take long throws a game you will rack up a lot of kilometres. So he never moaned about doing it!
The poster who gave the rugby league analogy got it right about a player with clean stats.
Surely every manager wants to build a team - comprising players who support and bring the best out of each other, together capable of achieving or at least being competitive in their league.
No computer analysis is able to reveal how a bunch of very different personalities can blend together.
And that performances are confidence driven.
It really doesn't tell you as much in open play situations. There are just too many variables. So it is useful to identify players to scout, but until you see them play, you really don't know anything.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Nowhere-Men-Michael-Calvin/dp/0099580268
That's not something that a laptop can pick up.
We lucked out on not getting Delort, but no one seems to have picked up on his difficult and quick to quit attitude.
You have to say that the club's organisation under Powell and Chapple signed many players who looked and were able to perform in difficult circumstances. Shame they didn't get much money at all in the champ.
With regards to American sports you get the frequent option to release and trade players. Where contracts are shorter or where they can be cancelled quickly, statistical analysis can provide a basis for a decent strategy, but it's a strategy within a pyramid that is directly comparable in terms of performance parameters: It's one league where they must perform, they may get on the practice squad from Japan but they'll only get a short chance in the big leagues if at all.
If there's a lot of ffs and caps lock ranting then he's the next Scott Parker so sign him up. If they're in fits of laughter at the prospect of another mug club taking him on then he's probably the next Ali Dia so best not to proceed.
(Joking....please don't implement this Katrien)
This is clearly not going to end well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37145459
At least Brentford had the sense to modify their approach last season. If Fulham fail to do so, they could find themselves in trouble, especially now they've lost their two best strikers from last season.