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Dr Kish's Take On The Current Situation...........Prepare To Be Depressed

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Comments

  • redman said:

    There is little doubt that he bought the club to make a profit. Fans need to accept that this is now normal ambition of newstyle owners and includes the owners of clubs at Manu, Liverpool, Palace and West Ham.

    To me it has become clear he had 3 strands of objectives
    1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit
    2. To buy and sell players at a profit; mainly buying youngsters who would develop and,
    3. have a championship side, which if the first 2 are successful should be a decent side with a possibility of achieving promotion ( a nice to have but not an objective). This would run at a loss but be more than covered by 1 and 2 to produce an overall profit.

    In his mind his owning a series of clubs would help 1 and 2.

    His 2 year review would show:

    1. Looking very promising
    2. Failing
    3. Looks like failing

    2 is failing because
    (i) underestimated how good the championship is compared to other leagues in Europe
    (ii) badly advised on player purchases which have mainly been failures

    3 is failing because
    (I) and (ii) as for 2
    (iii) the league changing the rules on FFP which would mean more investment

    So his next action plan, would follow the lines of many businesses
    A. concentrate investment in the successful part ie 1 the academy
    B. reduce risks in player outlays and cut costs generally

    This he seems to be doing.
    The bit he is missing is maximising other revenues - which in this case is from supporters, TV money etc, particularly if we get relegated.

    The other bit he is taking a huge gamble on the effect on the academy if we get relegated. He seems to be assuming we can still attract the same level of youngsters if we are in Div 1 as Championship. No idea on this.

    Slightly different take, but no less depressing from a football point of view, except I think it unlikely he will look to sell the Valley or the training ground without selling the club.

    Very good piece.

    The rub is that "1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit" is the part that was already in place and doing well before RD arrived and over which he has had the less influence/made the least interference. And that is very telling.
  • which is something I alluded to on cafc picks, when everyone was banging on re all the investing in infrastructure that duckalet is doing!
  • edited December 2015
    It has always been this.

    RD & KM realise exactly what they are doing and do not wish to have discussion, because it's something that's not palatable, to those who wish to see us strive for on-pitch progress.

  • redman said:

    There is little doubt that he bought the club to make a profit. Fans need to accept that this is now normal ambition of newstyle owners and includes the owners of clubs at Manu, Liverpool, Palace and West Ham.

    To me it has become clear he had 3 strands of objectives
    1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit
    2. To buy and sell players at a profit; mainly buying youngsters who would develop and,
    3. have a championship side, which if the first 2 are successful should be a decent side with a possibility of achieving promotion ( a nice to have but not an objective). This would run at a loss but be more than covered by 1 and 2 to produce an overall profit.

    In his mind his owning a series of clubs would help 1 and 2.

    His 2 year review would show:

    1. Looking very promising
    2. Failing
    3. Looks like failing

    2 is failing because
    (i) underestimated how good the championship is compared to other leagues in Europe
    (ii) badly advised on player purchases which have mainly been failures

    3 is failing because
    (I) and (ii) as for 2
    (iii) the league changing the rules on FFP which would mean more investment

    So his next action plan, would follow the lines of many businesses
    A. concentrate investment in the successful part ie 1 the academy
    B. reduce risks in player outlays and cut costs generally

    This he seems to be doing.
    The bit he is missing is maximising other revenues - which in this case is from supporters, TV money etc, particularly if we get relegated.

    The other bit he is taking a huge gamble on the effect on the academy if we get relegated. He seems to be assuming we can still attract the same level of youngsters if we are in Div 1 as Championship. No idea on this.

    Slightly different take, but no less depressing from a football point of view, except I think it unlikely he will look to sell the Valley or the training ground without selling the club.

    Very good piece.

    The rub is that "1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit" is the part that was already in place and doing well before RD arrived and over which he has had the less influence/made the least interference. And that is very telling.
    ...and part of the reason he bought us
  • redman said:

    There is little doubt that he bought the club to make a profit. Fans need to accept that this is now normal ambition of newstyle owners and includes the owners of clubs at Manu, Liverpool, Palace and West Ham.

    To me it has become clear he had 3 strands of objectives
    1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit
    2. To buy and sell players at a profit; mainly buying youngsters who would develop and,
    3. have a championship side, which if the first 2 are successful should be a decent side with a possibility of achieving promotion ( a nice to have but not an objective). This would run at a loss but be more than covered by 1 and 2 to produce an overall profit.

    In his mind his owning a series of clubs would help 1 and 2.

    His 2 year review would show:

    1. Looking very promising
    2. Failing
    3. Looks like failing

    2 is failing because
    (i) underestimated how good the championship is compared to other leagues in Europe
    (ii) badly advised on player purchases which have mainly been failures

    3 is failing because
    (I) and (ii) as for 2
    (iii) the league changing the rules on FFP which would mean more investment

    So his next action plan, would follow the lines of many businesses
    A. concentrate investment in the successful part ie 1 the academy
    B. reduce risks in player outlays and cut costs generally

    This he seems to be doing.
    The bit he is missing is maximising other revenues - which in this case is from supporters, TV money etc, particularly if we get relegated.

    The other bit he is taking a huge gamble on the effect on the academy if we get relegated. He seems to be assuming we can still attract the same level of youngsters if we are in Div 1 as Championship. No idea on this.

    Slightly different take, but no less depressing from a football point of view, except I think it unlikely he will look to sell the Valley or the training ground without selling the club.

    There is a 4th strand of objectives.

    You say he is "missing.. maximising other revenues", but maximising other revenues is exactly what he did as owner of St Truiden. Even now, as owner (via his girlfriend) of the STVV ground but not the club itself, he has been rebuilding the physical structure of the stands and maximising non-football revenue, so this can be assumed to be a significant part of his strategy at the time of purchasing of CAFC.

    The analysis in this case is that to date (a) what works in Belgium, like terrace cafes open during the week and gimmicks to amuse the punters, doesn't necessarily translate to SE London, and (b) his clueless CEO is making a total pig's ear of everything she touches.

    On your last point, I think it is more likely that he would like to sell the club and keep the ground and training ground, leasing them back to the club. That's much more his MO.
  • redman said:

    There is little doubt that he bought the club to make a profit. Fans need to accept that this is now normal ambition of newstyle owners and includes the owners of clubs at Manu, Liverpool, Palace and West Ham.

    To me it has become clear he had 3 strands of objectives
    1. To develop youngsters through the academy for sale at a profit
    2. To buy and sell players at a profit; mainly buying youngsters who would develop and,
    3. have a championship side, which if the first 2 are successful should be a decent side with a possibility of achieving promotion ( a nice to have but not an objective). This would run at a loss but be more than covered by 1 and 2 to produce an overall profit.

    In his mind his owning a series of clubs would help 1 and 2.

    His 2 year review would show:

    1. Looking very promising
    2. Failing
    3. Looks like failing

    2 is failing because
    (i) underestimated how good the championship is compared to other leagues in Europe
    (ii) badly advised on player purchases which have mainly been failures

    3 is failing because
    (I) and (ii) as for 2
    (iii) the league changing the rules on FFP which would mean more investment

    So his next action plan, would follow the lines of many businesses
    A. concentrate investment in the successful part ie 1 the academy
    B. reduce risks in player outlays and cut costs generally

    This he seems to be doing.
    The bit he is missing is maximising other revenues - which in this case is from supporters, TV money etc, particularly if we get relegated.

    The other bit he is taking a huge gamble on the effect on the academy if we get relegated. He seems to be assuming we can still attract the same level of youngsters if we are in Div 1 as Championship. No idea on this.

    Slightly different take, but no less depressing from a football point of view, except I think it unlikely he will look to sell the Valley or the training ground without selling the club.

    There is a 4th strand of objectives.

    You say he is "missing.. maximising other revenues", but maximising other revenues is exactly what he did as owner of St Truiden. Even now, as owner (via his girlfriend) of the STVV ground but not the club itself, he has been rebuilding the physical structure of the stands and maximising non-football revenue, so this can be assumed to be a significant part of his strategy at the time of purchasing of CAFC.

    The analysis in this case is that to date (a) what works in Belgium, like terrace cafes open during the week and gimmicks to amuse the punters, doesn't necessarily translate to SE London, and (b) his clueless CEO is making a total pig's ear of everything she touches.

    On your last point, I think it is more likely that he would like to sell the club and keep the ground and training ground, leasing them back to the club. That's much more his MO.
    Does that mean we will finally get that bowling alley at the Valley and the late-night booze license?
  • Redman misses the fact that we haven't had a competent settled manager since Duchatelet arrived. That shouldn't be underestimated. Whilst the CEO doesn't pick the players or the side and is not responsible for motivation, they do have a significant role to play in the health of the club and we are seriously ill at the moment.
  • It has always been this.

    RD & KM realise exactly what they are doing and do not wish to have discussion, because it's something that's not palatable, to those who wish to see us strive for on-pitch progress.

    If you are right, then part of that process has been to deliberately mislead the supporting community with spin about the aims of progress in the first team strength and getting the club near the PL.
    Spun whilst the real intention is along the lines of - " Of course those would be our aims as well, but not actually the priority at all."
    If true, that just makes it even worse.

  • The scary thing is that if (when) we go down, what is going to change?? NOTHING, so then we 'could' keep falling and falling. If Mr Duchatelet 'wants' us to be a premiership club he certainly has got a funny way of showing it!
    Under this regime, mentality etc what is he achieving, In my opinion he doesn't give a flying fuck for the club or us, why does he not show up at games ffs, do some press conferences, try to be a bit more pro active in trying to convince us that he is the right man to take our great club forward?
    As I said because the arrogant Belgian does't give a flying fuck!!
    Merry Christmas Rolant, I hope you choke on your turkey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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