An objective Businessman's view on the whole saga

Godstone

*PLEASE CAN THIS BE A THREAD WHERE PEOPLE LOOK AT THE FACTS RATHER THAN THE PERSONALITIES.

I'm not a businessman. So, what do the business and finance people on the forum make of where we are?

As I see it:

Businessman with interest in football invests in a number of clubs from different countries.
By helping each other out they will become more successful leading to increased revenues.

Eg. Standard Liege lending their (supposedly) superior players to Charlton Athletic helping them back to the Premier League.

Problem is the plan failed

So, what does RD our businessman do next? He's not a fan, he knows he is not popular...but he is old and it's now or never
if he wants success in the football world. Of course he would want Charlton to do well - it's in his interest but he doesn't seem to be a risk taker
in terms of investing money on players other than a couple of times: Igor & JBG.


Would he see spending money on his largest club Charlton as a good thing in order to at least maintain them as a higher division club or
does he see it as throwing good money after bad? The network idea hasn't succeeded, so what would his plan B...be.

Way I see it he either gets behind us now and makes sure we succeed or he cuts his losses and maybe sells some players. We need to know which
of these now unless there is a 3rd option for him...

I can't imagine it's in his interests to carry on our current mediocrity so surely he will have to get behind us or get out soon?

Henry Irving

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Godstone

Thanks Henry. His sale of Liege must be something of an admission that the whole network plan was a mistake. After all, Charlton and Standard were the only 2 clubs in the network who could realistically exchange players.

ChicagoAddick

I still stand by the fact that he sold SL because of the mystery surrounding his involvement in St Truiden, who if he has one pet, is it.

Tunwellsaddick

Godstone said:

Thanks Henry. His sale of Liege must be something of an admission that the whole network plan was a mistake. After all, Charlton and Standard were the only 2 clubs in the network who could realistically exchange players.

My theory is that he sold Standard Liege because he was made a good offer and came out with a good profit. The exchange of players idea seemed to die a death following that decision. No idea what he is up to except he is there to make money. He does not appear to be much interested in football.

ricky_otto

Tunwellsaddick said:

Godstone said:

Thanks Henry. His sale of Liege must be something of an admission that the whole network plan was a mistake. After all, Charlton and Standard were the only 2 clubs in the network who could realistically exchange players.

My theory is that he sold Standard Liege because he was made a good offer and came out with a good profit. The exchange of players idea seemed to die a death following that decision. No idea what he is up to except he is there to make money. He does not appear to be much interested in football.

Let's hope he gets an good offer for us and pisses off.

killerandflash

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

nth_london_addick

A business man wouldn't have got involved in the first place, football Is a toy not a business the risk far out weighs the reward, 20 seats at a table is the best you can hope for,and when the 4 seats out of the 20 on offer that are offer are booked years in advance why would you bother,

LargeAddick

You can't analyse football the same as you would other businesses. If you did they'd be less than 30 league clubs.

Athletico Charlton

nth london addick said:

A business man wouldn't have got involved in the first place, football Is a toy not a business the risk far out weighs the reward, 20 seats at a table is the best you can hope for,and when the 4 seats out of the 20 on offer that are offer are booked years in advance why would you bother,

Agree entirely except I would go further and say that rather than 4 permanent members of the PL there are probably more like 7-8, and within 5 years I think with the disparity in money that relegation/promotion will end up being the same teams each season and effectively be closed to new comers...just look at the top 2 now being Burnley and Hull and who really thinks QPR won't get back up in their 4 years of Premier League gravy train money... It is already happening.

redman

There is obviously an ego issue around. "Nobody else makes money from a championship club but I will show them I can".

kings hill addick

He is investing in the Academy. He is probably looking at Southampton and thinking that if he can replicate their youth set up he will be successful.

To be fair most journalists and pundits think Southampton are a model club and they rave about them.

I don't think he can or will achieve anything close to what could be called success unless he gets lucky. However, that doesn't mean that he will walk away and give up yet.

queensland_addick

Why would he be thinking long term ( ie the academy) for Charlton? He doesn't even care about our history, never mind looking 5/10 years out into the future. Southampton make a lot of money from selling their academy products because they are a Premiership team. Those same players would sell for probably less than half if they were in the Championship. It's not a model one can rely upon at all. I think his model (exchanging players) has broken and now he's in limbo, not wanting to sell at a loss, but not wanting to throw his money at trying to get us into the Premier League.

ElfsborgAddick

killerandflash said:

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

Or spend loose change and flounder in the lower reaches of the Championship.

kentaddick

kings hill addick said:

He is investing in the Academy. He is probably looking at Southampton and thinking that if he can replicate their youth set up he will be successful.

To be fair most journalists and pundits think Southampton are a model club and they rave about them.

I don't think he can or will achieve anything close to what could be called success unless he gets lucky. However, that doesn't mean that he will walk away and give up yet.

Southampton also spent £1 million on Ricky lambert when they were in league one. They signed the right kind of players with English football experience.

I'd have thought Roland was going for the Crewe model of scraping by and selling the occasional player to a prem team. However the size of our club and our overheads make that an impossible mission.

vff

Southampton heavily invested in the team to get to the premiership and improved the quality of the squad when promoted from League One to the Championship. Jimensz and Slater with their backer (Kevin Cash) initially invested in the team in League One that duly got promotion into the Championship. They were set to do the same re -investment as Southampton in the squad and up the quality before their backer pulled their investment.

Duchatelet is trying to rely on the Academy without putting in that high level of investment with a thin squad, that brings in cheap players that are not ready / proven for the Championship, who may lack fitness / attitude or proved to be useless. It is a very different strategy to the one used by Southampton to get promotion. One that is very unlikely to work. A lower Championship finish with potential struggle and gamble against relegation to League One each year is the more likely outcome.

Scoham

ElfsborgAddick said:

killerandflash said:

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

Or spend loose change and flounder in the lower reaches of the Championship.

In trying to do it cheaply he's wasted a lot of money. How much in fees, wages, terminating contracts and whatever else has been spent on PP, Nego, Tucudean, Lepoint, Bikey, Onyewu, Etheridge and probably a few others I've missed. Plus the managers and coaches that have been and gone.

That could have been spent on a new contract for Yann and fewer but better thought out signings.

stevexreeve

But Charlton is a football club - not a business.

Yes it has to run to a budget but so do families and charities etc.

No one would try to examine the "business" objectives when a family adopts a child. I think you have to look at RD's motives with Charlton in a similar way.

rikofold

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Football's also a bit of a unique business in that it seems extraordinarily rare that people involved make any money out of it.

rikofold

Scoham said:

ElfsborgAddick said:

killerandflash said:

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

Or spend loose change and flounder in the lower reaches of the Championship.

In trying to do it cheaply he's wasted a lot of money. How much in fees, wages, terminating contracts and whatever else has been spent on PP, Nego, Tucudean, Lepoint, Bikey, Onyewu, Etheridge and probably a few others I've missed. Plus the managers and coaches that have been and gone.

That could have been spent on a new contract for Yann and fewer but better thought out signings.

For me it's all been too short term. For example, if your thinking is that the sale of youth players will cover the costs of maintaining a higher football budget (i) set a higher football budget (ii) sell young players at the peak of their value.

For example, I remain convinced that had we held onto Gomez for another year he would probably have been worth double the amount we sold him for. If that covered two years' losses, then you've sold one player in two years to do that - on a shorter term basis, you sell two players because you have to break even every year rather than over your project.

centurion

There seems another danger we should consider - what if in the absence of Standard Liege Roland is happy for Charlton to fall down to the level of his other teams playing at a lower standard, rather than having Charlton in a strong position where there's no real scope for shifting players around and so on?
If his business model is to have a network, then there isn't much point having one club that's far stronger than all the rest. This wasn't the case with Liege because he could move their players to Charlton, into the championship which is a pretty competitive environment. I don't know much about Hungarian football, but I doubt Ujpest Doza would be of a similar level even though they did win the Hungarian Cup in one of the past few seasons.
It would help if he just explained what his ambitions are.

Simonsen

rikofold said:

Scoham said:

ElfsborgAddick said:

killerandflash said:

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

Or spend loose change and flounder in the lower reaches of the Championship.

In trying to do it cheaply he's wasted a lot of money. How much in fees, wages, terminating contracts and whatever else has been spent on PP, Nego, Tucudean, Lepoint, Bikey, Onyewu, Etheridge and probably a few others I've missed. Plus the managers and coaches that have been and gone.

That could have been spent on a new contract for Yann and fewer but better thought out signings.

For me it's all been too short term. For example, if your thinking is that the sale of youth players will cover the costs of maintaining a higher football budget (i) set a higher football budget (ii) sell young players at the peak of their value.

For example, I remain convinced that had we held onto Gomez for another year he would probably have been worth double the amount we sold him for. If that covered two years' losses, then you've sold one player in two years to do that - on a shorter term basis, you sell two players because you have to break even every year rather than over your project.

rikofold said:

Scoham said:

ElfsborgAddick said:

killerandflash said:

Henry Irving said:

A businessman would cut his losses and either sell the company or liquidate the assets, whichever reached the most return.

Or maybe they would see their plan was flawed but they could still turn a profit if they changed the plan, invested more in the business now to gain a larger return in the medium term.

But this isn't business it about showing that his way is best.

Of course you can still spend lots of money and end up still not getting promotion, Derby last season spent a fortune to push themselves over the line and failed. Would an extra £5m get us in the playoffs, £10m, £15m?

Or spend loose change and flounder in the lower reaches of the Championship.

In trying to do it cheaply he's wasted a lot of money. How much in fees, wages, terminating contracts and whatever else has been spent on PP, Nego, Tucudean, Lepoint, Bikey, Onyewu, Etheridge and probably a few others I've missed. Plus the managers and coaches that have been and gone.

That could have been spent on a new contract for Yann and fewer but better thought out signings.

For me it's all been too short term. For example, if your thinking is that the sale of youth players will cover the costs of maintaining a higher football budget (i) set a higher football budget (ii) sell young players at the peak of their value.

For example, I remain convinced that had we held onto Gomez for another year he would probably have been worth double the amount we sold him for. If that covered two years' losses, then you've sold one player in two years to do that - on a shorter term basis, you sell two players because you have to break even every year rather than over your project.

Likewise if Gomez had suffered the serious injury whilst with us, he'd have been worth very little and we'd still be paying his wages. Plus would it have been fair on the kid to hold him back? (not really sure I know the answer to that one).

Brunello

This may not be too popular but as a businessman I don't there is much wrong with his business plan or ideas but where it palpably fall down his utter failure to harness his plan to the vagaries that are Charlton and its supporters. If he leaned just 10% towards understand us i think it would be successful.
I also disagree that the plans are short term and that they are all geared to long term.

IA

centurion said:

There seems another danger we should consider - what if in the absence of Standard Liege Roland is happy for Charlton to fall down to the level of his other teams playing at a lower standard, rather than having Charlton in a strong position where there's no real scope for shifting players around and so on?
If his business model is to have a network, then there isn't much point having one club that's far stronger than all the rest. This wasn't the case with Liege because he could move their players to Charlton, into the championship which is a pretty competitive environment. I don't know much about Hungarian football, but I doubt Ujpest Doza would be of a similar level even though they did win the Hungarian Cup in one of the past few seasons.
It would help if he just explained what his ambitions are.

Hungarian club football is rubbish. I was in Budapest a few months ago, went to Ujpest, should probably put something on the thread I started about it.

MountsfieldPark

Tunwellsaddick said:

Godstone said:

Thanks Henry. His sale of Liege must be something of an admission that the whole network plan was a mistake. After all, Charlton and Standard were the only 2 clubs in the network who could realistically exchange players.

My theory is that he sold Standard Liege because he was made a good offer and came out with a good profit. The exchange of players idea seemed to die a death following that decision. No idea what he is up to except he is there to make money. He does not appear to be much interested in football.

What's to stop him buying another relatively big club, not Belgian this time, but French? He's had a look at a couple since he bought Charlton. Many French clubs have excellent academies (as did Liege, from before he bought it).

He said words to the effect that he's finished with Belgian football. Maybe he's just biding his time, because there aren't any French clubs he's tempted by on the market at the moment. We know from his purchase of Charlton that, when he sees something he likes, he rushes in, so you won't necessarily see any smoke signals before it happens.

Therefore, the academy-based network idea isn't necessarily dead.

nth_london_addick

I think it's been very easy to criticise everything RD has done due to the way he and his ideas have been introduced in a stand off way, very impersonal and business like,

There's been mistakes as there always will be,

And unfortunately he seems to be another owner who wont succeed

People were not exactly queing up to resolve our decline, and those that were where treated with scepticism and cynicism,

Football being all about results ultimately success can only be calculated on what happens on the field,

There was a time I genuinely had concern that cafc would not be here in any form of guise, we were hemorrhaging money, dropping through the pyramid of football like a stone, we had no money to repair the pitch the ground the academy people were not being paid and I don't believe we all truly knew the full extent of the problem or what was required to put it right,

Fortunately for me ( and I understand as much as the next man that football although tribal and based around group mentallity, its also a personal thing) I have managed to not be caught up in the emotion of failure on the pitch and been consumed by the whole latest page in the misfortune of being a cafc fan and I am glad I haven't as I see this no more of an issue than a shit run of form that with the right input will pass, I don't know enough about KF to know if it will work but Riga I would imagine to be a good teacher so I don't fear him, after three games I get told we are playing the best football on Saturday for ages, I believe that coincided with the return of the big dane I also reckon the slump in form was as much due to players being injured and missing

Mountains out of mole hills, I don't know maybe it is or maybe I have managed to remove myself from it far enough that it doesn't hit the same emotional buttons it used too

andynelson

nth london addick said:

I have managed to remove myself from it far enough that it doesn't hit the same emotional buttons it used too

Same as a lot of others. How has that come about?

Henry Irving

Brunello said:

This may not be too popular but as a businessman I don't there is much wrong with his business plan or ideas but where it palpably fall down his utter failure to harness his plan to the vagaries that are Charlton and its supporters. If he leaned just 10% towards understand us i think it would be successful.
I also disagree that the plans are short term and that they are all geared to long term.

Good points @Brunello but what makes you think his plans are long term?

And how well is he managing the short term in the meantime?

nth_london_addick

Dunno but I certainly enjoy my family time a lot more than trying to fit cafc within it and the mood being soured by the result

There's so much negative cafc day in day out, the result sat I hope gave people a gap in the hate but reading the protest thread and the anger aimed at km I think a lot of people need a break but can't or don't really know how to step away, but I feel so much better for it

Dippenhall

If RD wanted to make money he would not have bought football clubs.

It's a not for profit business, like a charity but with one donor who finances the infrastructure of the charity shop and expects the sales of the charity shop to cover overheads and not keep bringing out the collection tin.

It seems he has no trust in others to deliver his vision so he's appointed avatars to do his bidding in his image.

His vision is not the root problem, and is probably little different from many other owners, it's his execution of the vision which has gone pear shaped.

He must be accepting responsibility for the chaos in the shop, and must be feeling a sense of loss of control. I can't believe he has not realised he needs to step back by either selling up, or handing over management of the shop to a competent management team. He may be congenitally incapable of delegation, so selling up just might be his preferred choice.

MuttleyCAFC

I suspect he saw an opportunity and whether it actually was one or not when he saw it, it probably isn’t now, given that FFP has been watered down. I would imagine his priority would be to get as much money from selling us as he can. If he bought us as part of a bigger plan, he doesn’t have any reason to keep us, other than recouping the money -or as much of it - that he has already invested, if we are not contributing and not likely to contribute to the success of the plan going forwards. Not sure the thread is aimed at the right people as I doubt this site has any prospective buyers in its ranks and any businessman worth his salt would probably advise not to buy a club like us in the first place. There must be so many other better ways to make money.