Having seen Wendies on Saturday and seeing as how the others are all below them so far, I don't fancy that bet; but I guess you won't be wasting too much of your profit oh ye of little faith.
Well, after looking like it might be comfortable, the turn down in form is a concern. Currently we are 4/5 (bet vic) top half and 11/10 (sky) bottom half. So I have laid out £170 to collect £800 a profit of £530. Do I lay some back at the 11/10 to at least cover my stake ! Dilemma
Tonight's results could have a big affect on these prices, an Addicks win, an Leeds, Cardiff, Brum, Wendies loss could see us at 5/2 for bottom half and 8/15 for top.
What would you do ?
I'm not trying to be clever, but if you've laid out £170 to collect £800. Your profit is £630 not £530.
Thanks Covered End correct so, taking a look at the final week what can possibly go wrong. Ok let's take the worse case and we lose to Bournmouth.
we are 60 points with a -3 goal difference and scored 54.
We have 4 below us and at least 2 must stay there.
A win or draw sees Brum go above us.
Forest v Cardiff if either win they would go above us. Leaving the other below us. A draw would see Forest with 60 points go above us with a plus 3 goal difference. Cardiff on 60 points with -5 would go level with us, if we lost by 2 goals. They would be above us if we lose by 3. They have also scored 55 so we would need to score at least 1or more for us to lose by 2 and stay above them.
A Wendies draw at Watford still leaves them on -6 so we would have to lose by 4 to go below them as they have only scored 42. So they have to win.
Am I right in saying that my worst results on Saturday is a Forest draw , with Wendies winning. If those two games finish any other way, then I've won ? As Charlton will be top half !
In which case if I have A £20 at 8/1 Wendies win an 9/4 Forest draw which would pay £585.50p.
Thanks Covered End correct so, taking a look at the final week what can possibly go wrong. Ok let's take the worse case and we lose to Bournmouth.
we are 60 points with a -3 goal difference and scored 54.
We have 4 below us and at least 2 must stay there.
A win or draw sees Brum go above us.
Forest v Cardiff if either win they would go above us. Leaving the other below us. A draw would see Forest with 60 points go above us with a plus 3 goal difference. Cardiff on 60 points with -5 would go level with us, if we lost by 2 goals. They would be above us if we lose by 3. They have also scored 55 so we would need to score at least 1or more for us to lose by 2 and stay above them.
A Wendies draw at Watford still leaves them on -6 so we would have to lose by 4 to go below them as they have only scored 42. So they have to win.
Am I right in saying that my worst results on Saturday is a Forest draw , with Wendies winning. If those two games finish any other way, then I've won ? As Charlton will be top half !
In which case if I have A £20 at 8/1 Wendies win an 9/4 Forest draw which would pay £585.50p.
Thanks Covered End correct so, taking a look at the final week what can possibly go wrong. Ok let's take the worse case and we lose to Bournmouth.
we are 60 points with a -3 goal difference and scored 54.
We have 4 below us and at least 2 must stay there.
A win or draw sees Brum go above us.
Forest v Cardiff if either win they would go above us. Leaving the other below us. A draw would see Forest with 60 points go above us with a plus 3 goal difference. Cardiff on 60 points with -5 would go level with us, if we lost by 2 goals. They would be above us if we lose by 3. They have also scored 55 so we would need to score at least 1or more for us to lose by 2 and stay above them.
A Wendies draw at Watford still leaves them on -6 so we would have to lose by 4 to go below them as they have only scored 42. So they have to win.
Am I right in saying that my worst results on Saturday is a Forest draw , with Wendies winning. If those two games finish any other way, then I've won ? As Charlton will be top half !
In which case if I have A £20 at 8/1 Wendies win an 9/4 Forest draw which would pay £585.50p.
Can some one confirm my thinking ?
I've got a similar bet to you and was thinking about hedging as well. Few other possiblities though (bear in mind we've scored 54 and Cardiff 55)
We finish bottom half.....
If we lose by four goals or more and... Brum draw or better Any result in Forest v Cardiff Sheff Wed draw or better
If we lose by exactly three goals and... Brum draw or better Forest and Cardiff draw Any result for Sheff Wed
If we lose by exactly two goals and score same or less than Cardiff... Brum draw or better Forest and Cardiff draw Any result for Sheff Wed (Cardiff ahead on Goals scored)
If we lose by exactly one goal Brum draw or better Any result in Forest v Cardiff Sheff Wed win
Thanks to this thread. I put £50 on Charlton top half at the end of February at odds of 10/3 plus they gave me a £25 free bet so I got £300 out of this.
I initially tried to put £200 on but they said £50 was the max per person so slightly gutted I didn't stick to my guns and get other people to put more money on for me.
Hello everybody ! So after collecting our money last season by the smallest of margins equal points and 1 goal advantage on the goal difference, is it time to play again.
Charlton top half finish is 25/1 with Skybet or 16/1 Betvictor and Ladbrokes. Preston are 2/1 Bristol City 3/1,and Huddersfield 6/1. However, Sheffield Wednesday who we comfortably put away last week are best price 1/3 ! !
Huddersfield and Bristol have 2 points more than us, whilst Preston have 4, Wednesday have 11. We have 13 points and the club in 12th Fulham have 20. The 25/1 is way to big. We know that we are better than we have shown, a couple of results and this 25/1 could be but a distant memory .
The odds are attractive but if you have been going regularly, the question is 'can you really believe it?' We have looked like automatic relegation candidates for the most part, let alone top-half. Before anyone digs me out, I collected handsomely on a top-half finish last season....
Comments
we are 60 points with a -3 goal difference and scored 54.
We have 4 below us and at least 2 must stay there.
A win or draw sees Brum go above us.
Forest v Cardiff if either win they would go above us. Leaving the other below us. A draw would see Forest with 60 points go above us with a plus 3 goal difference. Cardiff on 60 points with -5 would go level with us, if we lost by 2 goals. They would be above us if we lose by 3. They have also scored 55 so we would need to score at least 1or more for us to lose by 2 and stay above them.
A Wendies draw at Watford still leaves them on -6 so we would have to lose by 4 to go below them as they have only scored 42. So they have to win.
Am I right in saying that my worst results on Saturday is a Forest draw , with Wendies winning. If those two games finish any other way, then I've won ? As Charlton will be top half !
In which case if I have A £20 at 8/1 Wendies win an 9/4 Forest draw which would pay £585.50p.
Can some one confirm my thinking ?
good luck gents
I've got a similar bet to you and was thinking about hedging as well. Few other possiblities though (bear in mind we've scored 54 and Cardiff 55)
We finish bottom half.....
If we lose by four goals or more and...
Brum draw or better
Any result in Forest v Cardiff
Sheff Wed draw or better
If we lose by exactly three goals and...
Brum draw or better
Forest and Cardiff draw
Any result for Sheff Wed
If we lose by exactly two goals and score same or less than Cardiff...
Brum draw or better
Forest and Cardiff draw
Any result for Sheff Wed
(Cardiff ahead on Goals scored)
If we lose by exactly one goal
Brum draw or better
Any result in Forest v Cardiff
Sheff Wed win
Tell me if you find any mistakes. Cheers
I initially tried to put £200 on but they said £50 was the max per person so slightly gutted I didn't stick to my guns and get other people to put more money on for me.
how the squad recruitment goes.
Charlton top half finish is 25/1 with Skybet or 16/1 Betvictor and Ladbrokes. Preston are 2/1 Bristol City 3/1,and Huddersfield 6/1. However, Sheffield Wednesday who we comfortably put away last week are best price 1/3 ! !
Huddersfield and Bristol have 2 points more than us, whilst Preston have 4, Wednesday have 11. We have 13 points and the club in 12th Fulham have 20. The 25/1 is way to big. We know that we are better than we have shown, a couple of results and this 25/1 could be but a distant memory .
I'm on .