Why I'm nervous about the 12/13 season

AFKABartram

After 27 games, Charlton are 17th with 32 points

In 12/13, after 27 games Wolves were 17th with 32 points.

Wolves went on to be relegated with 51 points.

Barnsley, who were bottom with 21 points after 26 games, went on to amass 55 points.

Sheff W, 25pts after 26 games, finished 18th with 58pts.

Someone reassure me why this, or something similar won't happen this season?

What is viewed as being the acceptable level of points we need to get to?

If it is 55 points needed to survive in 12/13, that would be 6 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats from out remaining 19 games.

razil

this reads like a recycled thread title..

mart77

We will make some solid signings in next few days and climb the table to finish 10th.

I hope.

Talal

We are not Wolves, the teams in the bottom 3 will not get anywhere 55 points. We have Simon Church. Get a grip man.

AFKABartram

mart77 said:

We will make some solid signings in next few days and climb the table to finish 10th.

I hope.

I really think we need to @mart77‌ . the Spanners for example have added some real quality in terms of Fabbrini and Hoolveld in this window who have come in and hit the ground running, and have completely rebuilt their defence.

I do t believe we currently have the character in the squad to see spirit see us kick in, it's gonna have to come from players refinding their form, or new improved additions

Nicholas

It's all about starting Tony Watt alongside Vetokele and the goals and points will start rolling in.

We will also get our biggest win of the season this weekend. 2-0 to the addicks.

Rossman92

Don't see the current bottom 3 going anywhere. The rest of the season is a big question mark, but I don't think relegation will be the answer

Oggy Red

Treat yourself to a nightcap, AFKA.

No point losing sleep about it all on a Tuesday night.

Wait until after the Rotherham game.
Then we'll know whether to hit the panic button.

mart77

AFKABartram said:

mart77 said:

We will make some solid signings in next few days and climb the table to finish 10th.

I hope.

I really think we need to @mart77‌ . the Spanners for example have added some real quality in terms of Fabbrini and Hoolveld in this window and have completely rebuilt their defence.

I do t believe we currently have the character in the squad to see spirit see us kick in, it's gonna have to come from players refinding their form, or new improved additions

I think Millwall have strengthened but I won't be concerned unless they get at least one decent striker. Next few days are crucial and although things are not currently going great I still think we will tighten enough under Luzon to stay up.

golfaddick

I agree with your post, up to a point, I reckon we'll need around 50-52 points for safety. I think Blackpool are goners meaning that Wigan & Millwall need 28-30 points - so 7 or 8 wins and then 6 or 7 draws, which out of 19 games is going some.

However, its us getting another 18-20 points that could be the problem. Its only 4 wins & 6 draws but I just cant see where the next win is coming from.

So, looking at it another way - Wigan & Millwall may only need to get to 45 or 46 points..........

Absurdistan

I'm more worried that we won't make the playoffs.

Fanny Fanackapan

Just when a smidgen of optimism was creeping in to my psyche, along comes a big, juicy slice of reality aka AFKA !

Seriously, I know where you're coming from but apart from giving the lads our fullest, noisiest support at every remaining game, there's nothing we can do to influence where we finish up at 5pm on 2nd May.

Unfortunately, we have to believe in GL and our players to fight the good fight and keep us safely the right side of the bottom 3. Whether it's with or without any new additions is in RD's hands.

I'm trying hard to take one game at a time and not look at the road ahead but it IS getting more difficult, especially when Rotherham net 4 and take all 3 points tonight...

Perhaps if we all close our eyes and repeat " I believe in Charlton " ad nauseum, like Tinkerbell we WILL survive.

:-)

seth plum

That Wolves team played us near the end of that season, managed by Dean Saunders, and I remember thinking at the time they were a disgrace to their travelling fans. There are definite parallels with our season right now, so Guy Luzon must win, win and win again from now on in. We need a good 16 wins to be absolutely sure of a decent play off place!

nth_london_addick

Time to get the big balls out i reckon, man up folks there is a long way to go and things have been going on in the back ground that affected the team and he has now gone

No one will sign a better holding midfielder in this window who won't panic on the ball and will release the pressure on the defenders, igor will get fitter and Tony watt will score soon and find his feet, we will add to the squad and we will be OK

Scoham

We'll all feel much better come Monday night when we've signed a 20 year old right winger from Ujpest and let TBH & Tucudean go without replacing them to give us that boost we need.

creepyaddick

*skakes afka by the shoulders and slaps round face*

Addick Addict

Below are our remaining fixtures. Making predictions, as anyone who does like a bet, isn't easy but I've tried to break the games into three categories, taking into account what has gone on so far this season as a whole as opposed to the recent half a dozen matches:

Big win games (Bolded)
Minimum one point games (Underlined)
Probably "nil point" games

Rotherham (H) 3
Middlesbrough (A) 0
Norwich (H) 1
Brentford (H) 1
Wigan (A) 1
Derby (A) 0
Huddersfield (H) 3
Nottm Forest (H) 1
Cardiff (A) 0
Blackburn (H) 1
Blackpool (A) 3
Reading (H) 3
Millwall (A) 0
Fulham (H) 1
Sheff Wed (A) 1
Bolton (A) 0
Leeds (H) 3
Birmingham (A) 0
Bournemouth (H) 0

It does make the assumption that the manager can galvanise the same sort of response that we had on Saturday but, if he can, then the above will mean we get 54 points.

That, being the case, Millwall will need to achieve a minimum of 30 points (27 if we do lose to them), Wigan 33 and Blackpool 37. That is a tall order and given that only once in the last 20 years has 54 points not been enough to survive, we should be safe.

It all goes to show quite how big a game Saturday has become.

Sillybilly

I think 45 points will be enough to survive this year. Whether we can get another 13 points is another matter. One thing is for sure, if we do go down after the start we had then we will deserve to.

ValleyGary

seth plum said:

That Wolves team played us near the end of that season, managed by Dean Saunders, and I remember thinking at the time they were a disgrace to their travelling fans. There are definite parallels with our season right now, so Guy Luzon must win, win and win again from now on in. We need a good 16 wins to be absolutely sure of a decent play off place!

this never fails to make me laugh.

madness.

Granpa

This is the biggest test for Roland. He obviously bought us to become a money maker for him, he must be bright enough to know that he won't achieve it in Division One. He therefore must strengthen the squad this month. If he fails to do so, I can only say ' we're doomed Captain Duchatalet.'

Stig

At this stage in 2013 the the number of points needed to be out of the relegation zone was 29 (28+1), the average number of points across the league was 39.25 with a standard deviation of 8.33.
At this moment in time the number of points needed to be out of the relegation zone is just 25 (24+), the average points across the league is 36.5 with a standard deviation of 9.75.

In short the league was more homogenous back then, teams tended to be more towards the same level and the bar at the bottom was higher than it is now. From these few simple figures I can tell you to stop worrying AFKA. We are as good as safe. Nothing can go wrong now! ;-)