Very interesting stuff, especially the piece by the Fulham fan. While analysis based on data of this kind always need to be interpreted with care, it often tells us more, in the short-term, about the capability of sides than does their results.
Relating these articles to the "Have we been lucky" thread, my take, for what it's worth, is the following;
1. The evidence suggests that the best "raw" indicator of a team's capability, and hence likely final league table position, is relative wage bill. On this metric we are probably bottom eight and relegation candidates.
2. Our players are better than our relative wage bill might suggest, i.e. we are outperforming our wage bill. There are three main reasons for this. First, the European connection has enabled us to sign players more cheaply than had they been sourced in England. Second, we have no overpaid non-performers or has beens. Third, the squad deliberately lacks expensive depth, with back-up provided by young players with potential at the expense of more experienced, but expensive players.
3. The squad is outperforming the aggregate of the ability of the individual players. As Yoni Buyens put it after the defeat at Bournemouth, "we are all about the collective." Bob Peeters has a squad with tremendous spirit, as we saw in the second half at Fulham last night, and has quickly developed a very disciplined unit, especially when our opponents have the ball. Well done Bob Peeters.
4. We've been lucky. If we were to play our first fourteen games one hundred times, our average points total would be comfortably below the twenty two points we've actually secured. We cannot know what that average points total would have been, but I would suggest that the start we've had is a first decile outcome and that across those one hundred "simulations" we may have been looking down the table more often than we'd have been looking up it.
A mid table finish would be a good outcome and a credit to Bob Peeters in his first season in the Championship. To do better, this season or next, we'll need Roland Duchatelet to spend more money, i.e. to increase his losses, and/or wait for our academy to deliver first team players. It's a fair bet that at some point Roland will approve an increase in the playing budget, but he'll do that when he judges the timing is right and on his terms.
PS What's the difference between Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet? Jimenez was willing to spend money, but not able. Duchatelet is able, but not willing.
M.Duchatelet spent €3m on Vetokele and we all know that money could be recouped sooner or later along with a hefty premium. He nearly spent a similar amount on Delort. There is a clear scenario where he can be persuaded to spend more in January and that is if we are still in a similar position. To some the November fixtures look hard and to others they are saying we might secure nine points? Well nine is a long way towards the 14 required to stay seventh. And that triggers the commitment to sign "one or two quality players" So games vs Wednesday and Millwall take on an extra significance as those results will directly influence January window activity. So does anyone know if Vetokele back next Saturday?!
Other than that distinction, I tend to agree with what @Mundell Fleming has written. We are outperforming the wage bill and value of our squad and that is down to luck and good management in my book.
Mid-table is ok but it's so close to sixth place that the dream can live a little longer
SR - I really think you're living in a fantasy world if you think there is some kind of magic "trigger" that means Rolly is going to dip in his pocket.
The fact is, if we don't beef up our paper thin and in experienced squad in the next four weeks we'll be looking back rather Yann forward.
Two very good pieces of analysis that I think between them tell quite a powerful story of the season so far. The only real discrepancy between them that I can see is that Foxpunter says, "They are happy to concede territory but take pride in possession and show patience with the ball, happy to bide their time and wait for an opposition mistake or a set piece". Whilst Viva El Fulham reminds us the sad news that, "They average the second worst possession in the league, just 46%" . It seems to me to be a difference between intent and action: that whilst we'd like to be the former, we aren't quite there yet. In the second half of yesterday's match we did put some quite impressive passing strings together, but it didn't always look very comfortable. Frankly, some of our passing isn't as good as it might be. I wouldn't say it's terrible but there are times when it could be better. There are lots of passes that reach their man but aren't very easy to control, either too hard or dropping a little short or sometimes a bit behind. This gives the receiving player a trickier job than they'd like to get the ball under control and consequently less time to think about how to play their pass on to the next player and then the whole pattern repeats. I think that with just a bit more care and attention to getting our passing just right we could see quite some change in the patterns of possession that we are seeing.
On the question of how likely we are to see a Grand January Wallet-Opening, I'm personally not expecting much (I'm happy to be proved wrong though). I think this season was always about consolidation. Of course, it's possible that we could make the play-offs and luckily sneak through like the Nigels did the other year, but if I was RD I don't think I'd be taking a massive punt on it. Our new owners seem to be operating quite shrewdly in the transfer market. I take the fact that we didn't end up with Delort as evidence of that. Let Wigan and others pay over the odds, we named our price and weren't prepared go over that. It might not sound very ambitious, but for me a solid mid-table finish with the nucleus of a squad that can be built into real Championship contenders over the couple of seasons is a far more realistic prospect than going for broke this year.
I'm not expecting a lot of money spent over January, it will be an exercise in papering over a few cracks and making sure there is enough depth to not struggle against the drop instead of with an eye to going up.
If Duchatelet isn't a able to bring results - by which I mean outperform his spending - does that not mean the whole thing is a failure, in other words his method brings no return of much value?
This might be different if he was at least breaking even at CAFC or even across the group - then the impact of spending with little return would be less. But I suspect that isn't the case. Of course we are only just at the end of year one in what might be a 2.5-3.5 yr project.
I am also interested to know how people know what our actual wage bill is, I heard that part of the 'formula' is high wage low purchase. Attracting quality free transfers, etc
If Duchatelet isn't a able to bring results - by which I mean outperform his spending - does that not mean the whole thing is a failure, in other words his method brings no return of much value?
As I suggested above, we almost certainly are outperforming our wage bill and in that sense it might be argued that Duchatelet's methods are working.
Of course we are only just at the end of year one in what might be a 2.5-3.5 yr project.
This is the key point. It's very early days yet and impossible to judge whether the Duchatelet strategy will work. The faith in youth development is very easy to empathise with, but it's likely to be very hit and miss. There is no point outperforming our wage bill if we keep losing money. It will be interesting to see what our owner will do if we are treading water two to three years out.
I am also interested to know how people know what our actual wage bill is, I heard that part of the 'formula' is high wage low purchase. Attracting quality free transfers, etc
Informed guesswork (which could be wrong, obviously), but I'd imagine that there is a willingness to spend money on transfer fees where young players with potential are concerned (Vetokele, Parzyszek, Delort), because they can be sold on for a profit, and a reluctance to pay high wages because this is dead money. There is no benefit to increasing the wage bill, by say £0.5m, if all that does is increase the points gained from 55 to 65. While we know it's impossible to be so precise, I suspect this is the mindset and that this season is all about understanding this calibration.
My worry is that despite it sounding good , the system of a small but quality squad backed up by our youth players, just wont bring a next step to the club.
As first it relies on a steady supply of youth players good enough for this level, which can't be gauranteed no matter how good an academy you have.
The stars like Vetokele & Gudmundsson will not stick around season after season for midtable in the second tier, so unless the plan is to sell them for a big profit and reinvest all of the money on multiple versions of the next them(which i have not seen mentioned) how are we ever going to take the next step unless we stumble onto the type of player or Head Coach that is so good at what they do that they get us promoted on their own.
Crowds will continue to drop or they certainly won't grow on a strategy of aiming to finish midtable every season surely.
Don't mistake this as moaning about this season though, im delighted for midtable after worrying about relegation for the much of the previous two but it does not shake that im getting a little worried that the idealogy that our current owner has will not bring the success us fans want over the next few seasons.
Success will require Duchatelet to spend more money, but most importantly a very high level of skill and a huge slice of luck. While that may not sound great, it's the situation facing all clubs without parachute payments.
I think he will only get 2 more players and will spend what he was going to in the summer on the players we missed out on. How much is that? Sorry I am not one of the ITK, or even know someone who is, just my thoughts. Whether he will go for the same players (who ever they were, ignoring all the rumours), or whether the needs have changed. I still think they will come from abroad. He has said many times, he doesn't want relegation, anything else is work in progress.
I would be delighted if those 2 extra players do appear in January but a little concerned about the comments League postion deciding if they arrive or not, that seem a little bizarre to me, if we can budget for it then surely they come in no matter what postion we find ourselves in 2 months time.
Surely another thing to factor in the season-so-far analysis, is the fact that initially we were an unknown quantity to other teams; new team, new manager, unknown players strengths/weaknesses, system ,tactics.
SR - I really think you're living in a fantasy world if you think there is some kind of magic "trigger" that means Rolly is going to dip in his pocket.
The fact is, if we don't beef up our paper thin and in experienced squad in the next four weeks we'll be looking back rather Yann forward.
It's not a magic trigger but a very clear set condition which has been spelt out in quotes to the media by Peeters and Meire throughout September and October. The quote the other day was the most specific. "if we are in a similar position [7th before today] approaching the new year then I think CAFC will acquire one or two quality players in the January window" 1) by quality players acquired I take that to mean €3m fees just like that spent on Vetokele and rumoured to be offered for Delort - it might take more to get real quality. As others acknowledge it is going to be expensive to improve what we have already. 2) as posted elsewhere, to be sixth after 23 games requires around 14 more points to get to 36. I've not looked at December fixtures but November might deliver five or nine points depending upon your perspective. If we can't beat Wednesday nor Millwall then we are a long way from the top six so they take it easy. If we do secure nine points or more then game on. 3) M.Duchatelet is not a young man and everything he has done to date as been precise and at pace - I suspect they are already looking at transfer deals and targets.
Comments
Glad that they've highlighted our weakness to corners though; that's three goals in recent weeks we've conceded due to corners. Not a great stat.
http://www.vivaelfulham.co.uk/articles/before-the-whistle-charlton-athletic-7-533.html
Great read though.
Relating these articles to the "Have we been lucky" thread, my take, for what it's worth, is the following;
1. The evidence suggests that the best "raw" indicator of a team's capability, and hence likely final league table position, is relative wage bill. On this metric we are probably bottom eight and relegation candidates.
2. Our players are better than our relative wage bill might suggest, i.e. we are outperforming our wage bill. There are three main reasons for this. First, the European connection has enabled us to sign players more cheaply than had they been sourced in England. Second, we have no overpaid non-performers or has beens. Third, the squad deliberately lacks expensive depth, with back-up provided by young players with potential at the expense of more experienced, but expensive players.
3. The squad is outperforming the aggregate of the ability of the individual players. As Yoni Buyens put it after the defeat at Bournemouth, "we are all about the collective." Bob Peeters has a squad with tremendous spirit, as we saw in the second half at Fulham last night, and has quickly developed a very disciplined unit, especially when our opponents have the ball. Well done Bob Peeters.
4. We've been lucky. If we were to play our first fourteen games one hundred times, our average points total would be comfortably below the twenty two points we've actually secured. We cannot know what that average points total would have been, but I would suggest that the start we've had is a first decile outcome and that across those one hundred "simulations" we may have been looking down the table more often than we'd have been looking up it.
A mid table finish would be a good outcome and a credit to Bob Peeters in his first season in the Championship. To do better, this season or next, we'll need Roland Duchatelet to spend more money, i.e. to increase his losses, and/or wait for our academy to deliver first team players. It's a fair bet that at some point Roland will approve an increase in the playing budget, but he'll do that when he judges the timing is right and on his terms.
PS What's the difference between Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet? Jimenez was willing to spend money, but not able. Duchatelet is able, but not willing.
He nearly spent a similar amount on Delort.
There is a clear scenario where he can be persuaded to spend more in January and that is if we are still in a similar position.
To some the November fixtures look hard and to others they are saying we might secure nine points? Well nine is a long way towards the 14 required to stay seventh. And that triggers the commitment to sign "one or two quality players"
So games vs Wednesday and Millwall take on an extra significance as those results will directly influence January window activity.
So does anyone know if Vetokele back next Saturday?!
Other than that distinction, I tend to agree with what @Mundell Fleming has written. We are outperforming the wage bill and value of our squad and that is down to luck and good management in my book.
Mid-table is ok but it's so close to sixth place that the dream can live a little longer
The fact is, if we don't beef up our paper thin and in experienced squad in the next four weeks we'll be looking back rather Yann forward.
On the question of how likely we are to see a Grand January Wallet-Opening, I'm personally not expecting much (I'm happy to be proved wrong though). I think this season was always about consolidation. Of course, it's possible that we could make the play-offs and luckily sneak through like the Nigels did the other year, but if I was RD I don't think I'd be taking a massive punt on it. Our new owners seem to be operating quite shrewdly in the transfer market. I take the fact that we didn't end up with Delort as evidence of that. Let Wigan and others pay over the odds, we named our price and weren't prepared go over that. It might not sound very ambitious, but for me a solid mid-table finish with the nucleus of a squad that can be built into real Championship contenders over the couple of seasons is a far more realistic prospect than going for broke this year.
This might be different if he was at least breaking even at CAFC or even across the group - then the impact of spending with little return would be less. But I suspect that isn't the case. Of course we are only just at the end of year one in what might be a 2.5-3.5 yr project.
I am also interested to know how people know what our actual wage bill is, I heard that part of the 'formula' is high wage low purchase. Attracting quality free transfers, etc
As first it relies on a steady supply of youth players good enough for this level, which can't be gauranteed no matter how good an academy you have.
The stars like Vetokele & Gudmundsson will not stick around season after season for midtable in the second tier, so unless the plan is to sell them for a big profit and reinvest all of the money on multiple versions of the next them(which i have not seen mentioned) how are we ever going to take the next step unless we stumble onto the type of player or Head Coach that is so good at what they do that they get us promoted on their own.
Crowds will continue to drop or they certainly won't grow on a strategy of aiming to finish midtable every season surely.
Don't mistake this as moaning about this season though, im delighted for midtable after worrying about relegation for the much of the previous two but it does not shake that im getting a little worried that the idealogy that our current owner has will not bring the success us fans want over the next few seasons.
"if we are in a similar position [7th before today] approaching the new year then I think CAFC will acquire one or two quality players in the January window"
1) by quality players acquired I take that to mean €3m fees just like that spent on Vetokele and rumoured to be offered for Delort - it might take more to get real quality. As others acknowledge it is going to be expensive to improve what we have already.
2) as posted elsewhere, to be sixth after 23 games requires around 14 more points to get to 36. I've not looked at December fixtures but November might deliver five or nine points depending upon your perspective. If we can't beat Wednesday nor Millwall then we are a long way from the top six so they take it easy. If we do secure nine points or more then game on.
3) M.Duchatelet is not a young man and everything he has done to date as been precise and at pace - I suspect they are already looking at transfer deals and targets.