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How do Forest and Charlton compare?

Apologies if already posted. I thought this was quite interesting, especially that both us and Forest average less possession than our opponents (so it's not just us!), the similar number of touches and also that we have a marginally higher conversion rate of shots to goals.

I don't really agree with their conclusion at the end that suggests Forest will keep it going longer than us because of their defence though!

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/10/01/how-do-undefeated-nottingham-forest-and-charlton-compare-this/

Comments

  • Interesting
  • They might be surprised. They mention that three of Forest's six clean sheets came in their last three but two of our three came in our last two... both defences are finding their feet and are clearly strong.
  • edited October 2014
    I would say we are more likely to stay unbeaten, personally.

    They have played Millwall, Blackpool, Bolton and Fulham. The 'worst' team we've played is probably Rotherham and it was away.

    Our next four fixtures are Birmingham, Bournemouth, Bolton and Fulham.

    Forest have Ipswich, Cardiff, Watford and Blackburn.

    Our form is far more impressive in my eyes when you look at what we've actually been up against. I heard they were lucky to even get a draw against Millwall and then Birmingham and Huddersfield both went there and spanked em'.
  • I like the assertion that a 2% difference is 'more impressive' (blocked shots) but a 1% difference is 'negligible' (tackles).
  • Psycho vs Bob, I'd pay to watch that!

    I'd say that our defence is just as likely to stay solid as Forest's, but that they are more likely to rediscover their early season scoring touch, whereas don't look very prolific at the moment
  • Our squad looks like it is performing better but with less depth. I'm not so worried about a loss, more if we keep on with the consistency and winning games. We have an easier run and if we stay unbeaten until November, then surely promotion is on the cards
  • Charlton and Forest have both played the three beaten playoff teams from last season - Derby, Brighton and Wigan - two at home and one away. We picked up 7 points from those matches. Forest picked up 3.

    Of the remaining 7 matches each team has played, from the first 10 games, the average number of points won by Forest's opponents was 10. The average number of points won by Charlton's opponents was 16.

    If the first 10 games are any indication, we've played 'better' teams than Forest. Their average is lower than the points total for the 'worst' team of those seven that we played (Huddersfield), while our average is the same as the 'best' team they played (Sheffield Wednesday).

    Even if you exclude the matches involving Forest and Charlton, their opponents' average number of points from 9 games is 9.5, while our opponents' average is 15.1

    All this says to me that Forest will find it tough to stay at the top and may drop in the coming weeks. It doesn't tell me much about how we'll do.

    I think both clubs will lose the unbeaten record this weekend.
  • IA said:

    Charlton and Forest have both played the three beaten playoff teams from last season - Derby, Brighton and Wigan - two at home and one away. We picked up 7 points from those matches. Forest picked up 3.

    Of the remaining 7 matches each team has played, from the first 10 games, the average number of points won by Forest's opponents was 10. The average number of points won by Charlton's opponents was 16.

    If the first 10 games are any indication, we've played 'better' teams than Forest. Their average is lower than the points total for the 'worst' team of those seven that we played (Huddersfield), while our average is the same as the 'best' team they played (Sheffield Wednesday).

    Even if you exclude the matches involving Forest and Charlton, their opponents' average number of points from 9 games is 9.5, while our opponents' average is 15.1

    All this says to me that Forest will find it tough to stay at the top and may drop in the coming weeks. It doesn't tell me much about how we'll do.

    I think both clubs will lose the unbeaten record this weekend.

    Great stats. I was about to like your post until I read the last line. ;-)
  • It wouldn't be Charlton if there wasn't something negative to say :-)
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  • IA said:

    Charlton and Forest have both played the three beaten playoff teams from last season - Derby, Brighton and Wigan - two at home and one away. We picked up 7 points from those matches. Forest picked up 3.

    Of the remaining 7 matches each team has played, from the first 10 games, the average number of points won by Forest's opponents was 10. The average number of points won by Charlton's opponents was 16.

    If the first 10 games are any indication, we've played 'better' teams than Forest. Their average is lower than the points total for the 'worst' team of those seven that we played (Huddersfield), while our average is the same as the 'best' team they played (Sheffield Wednesday).

    Even if you exclude the matches involving Forest and Charlton, their opponents' average number of points from 9 games is 9.5, while our opponents' average is 15.1

    All this says to me that Forest will find it tough to stay at the top and may drop in the coming weeks. It doesn't tell me much about how we'll do.

    I think both clubs will lose the unbeaten record this weekend.

    Much better analysis than in the article which suffered from the statto problem of just using numbers and forgetting the human variables.

    In football that means the other human teams played and the humans (players) in the two squads.
  • edited October 2014
    Neither side keeps the ball much. So it will be interesting to see how much possession the ref gets when we play them.
  • Funny this should be brought up.

    Was listening to the radio the other night and a Forest fan phoned in and said while they were pleased with the start of the season, game by game they seem to be getting more defensive in their approach favouring a 4-5-1, and while Assombolonga (sp) looked deadly at the start of the season, he is getting more isolated game by game and not looking anywhere near the threat he was at the start of the season.

    Swap him for Vetokele and that pretty much seems a fair sum up of where we are at the moment.
  • Forest losing to Ipswich last I checked.
  • What budget does Stuart Pearce have, compared to BP's?
  • Losing again.
  • 93rd min equaliser for Forest.
  • Tutt-Tutt said:

    What budget does Stuart Pearce have, compared to BP's?

    They made about £8 million in sales of players over the summer, I wonder hoe much of that goes towards player budgets for this season.
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  • The Championship is full of sides of the same standard, hence the amount of drawn games. This season could see sides promoted with a record low points tally.
  • edited October 2014
    Sure we're going backwards... first we start thinking we're going to lose half our games... then we fluke some results and discover we have a top scorer in out midst then we stop winning and only pick up a point most games... That's one view!

    Or one could say that one additional goal yesterday would have taken us second or third in the table. We are seventh and the CEO and now head coach have stated new players arriving in the next window if we can keep going at this level.

    Forest have a squad worth £40M on transfermarkt and spend c. £32M running their club each year, losing perhaps £15-18M. CAFC have a squad worth c. £16M and spend c. £17M each season on running costs...losing £5m.

    One club will pass FFP with flying colours while the other is likely to fail and will have to secure promotion to be able to sign additional players, I.e., escape player registration sanctions.
  • Both sing a version of Valley Floyd Road. Forest do it with better tempo. We do it more often and a lot quicker including glossing over the (vital) word "singing" which is shortened to a breathless "sin"!
  • Tutt-Tutt said:

    What budget does Stuart Pearce have, compared to BP's?

    They made about £8 million in sales of players over the summer, I wonder hoe much of that goes towards player budgets for this season.
    Well they were said to have paid £5.5m for Assombalonga and £1.5m for Antonio.
  • We both lost the unbeaten record last weekend and now we've both lost again this weekend.

    Do we have some agreement with Forest to match results?
  • Only until we meet in December.
  • iaitch said:

    Only until we meet in December.

    Then we draw.
  • It looks to me as if the recent comparative lack of Forest form has coincided with the absence of Fatty Reid.
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