Apart from our game with the Blades the absolute crunch fixture in all of this is Fulham vs Blackburn, its the last game that Fulham really have a decent chance of getting a win in as they have Arsenal (a), Liverpool (h) and then Boro (a) when Boro will likely still only have around 40 points (check out THEIR remaining games) and may need to win themselves to be mathematically safe.
If Fulham don't win on Saturday, and let's not forget that they have won only ONE of their last SIXTEEN league games (at home to Newcastle) then there is a fair chance they will end up on just 35/36 points. That means we would need a win and two draws from these last four games to overtake them and get to 37 points.
For my money, Sheffield United are nailed on for at least four points from their home games with Watford (3 pts) and Wigan (at least a draw) meaning that even if they lose away to Man Utd, Charlton and Villa that they will have got to 38 points. Bear in mind that the Blades are 3-1-12 away from home and have scored only SEVEN away goals all year and let in 28. Moreover, they have lost their last SEVEN away games (soon to be eight after Tuesday at Utd) since beating Wigan 1-0 on December 16th.
As for Wigan, they have got to be nailed on for a home win over West Ham and at least a point at home with Boro so if they lose away at Liverpool then they will go to Bramall Lane already on 39 points, maybe 41 if they beat Boro rather than draw. They are also a very hard side to beat.
That means that Fulham are realistically our key target as both Sheffield United and Wigan are in better form than the Cottagers and have easier run-ins than Fulham
As for us, we need to put in our part of the equation and get a result on Saturday, its as simple as that. Maybe I am being over optimistic but my feeling is that the Blades are very confident that their home form will see them through and with Watford and Wigan still to visit Bramall Lane that they will be feeling that they still have a cushion even if they lose to us because two more home wins will get them to 40 points and probable safety.
Warnock is in a tricky spot this week because he will not want to risk any injuries at Old Trafford but, at the same time, he can't afford to send out a weakened team because their goal difference is only three better than ours and within one goal either way of Fulham and Wigan and they can't afford a 4 goal beating which United are capable of dishing out.
The great news for us is that Ferguson has well and truly learnt his lesson this season about sending out weakened teams following their debacle at Pompey so Man Utd will be at full strength and going for a goal glut which could be crucial.
Even if we only draw this Saturday we could still sneak out of it by grabbing another four points from the remaining three games because this might be enough to edge us past Fulham if they only get a single point from their last four games which is quite possible if they only draw on Saturday.
0
Comments
Forget all that knee-jerk bollox after seven games and Operation Cottaging. THIS IS THE ONE.
Im not ruling West Ham out just yet, the way their season has gone the Chelsea game isnt a foregone conclusion.
I also think they will beat Everton at home.
The way I see it, we will beat Sheff Utd and Wigan will lose to Liverpool, so we go above them.
In that time West Ham will have collected 4 points so will be 2 behind us.
We go to Blackburn on the same day as Wigan v West Ham. A draw in that game and a positive result for us and we have a chance.
Sheff Utd are out of it now as they have Watford at home, hopefully they still need some sort of result last game of the season and need to beat Wigan.
Wigan are the ones to catch.
As for Wigan, they ain't pretty but they are scoring goals at home and I would expect them to beat the Spammers and get at least a point from the fast fading Boro (who are 1-6-9 away from home) which would take them to 39 points.
..............
More importantly Man U need the points, they've had a great season but they are only three points ahead of Chelsea, although GD is comfortably n their favour. If they lose this then Chelsea have a game in hand (vs West Ham??) but whoever it is against they should win, leaving them level on points, and then anything could happen. If Man U beat Sheff Utd then the Premiership is all but wrapped up, allowing them to concentrate on the CL and FA Cup etc.
If we beat Sheffield then we have a massive chance of staying up. What could also be crucial is us playing Spurs on the monday night and therefore knowing everyone elses results and what we need to do.
Realistically we have to win on Saturday - and then see what we need after that.
But we are only 'gone' if we are in the bottom three AFTER the Liverpool game.
I know it's a lot of......erm, 'fun' trying to predict all the permutations of everybody's remaining games
but it's no good deciding we are 'gone' just because there is a setback yet still games to play.
None of us has a crystal ball.
Bugger YOUR crystal ball, Solid ! ;-)
WE ARE STAYING UP !
I'm with you Oggy, all this predictions malarky is a waste of time. (He says as he thumbs his mind through all the fixtures again...:-)
Seriously, it is the nature of things when it gets tight. A few weeks ago before the Man City game, I was confident that we had it totally in our hands and therefore didn't care about others fixtures. Now with things tightened right up I have found myself pawing over them. Its the last refuge of the nervous fan. I really can't wait for it all to pan out. I hate this post loss/ pre next game period.
Look at how the bookies work their odds, its all based on statistical likelihood which can only be worked out via checking our fixtures against those of our rivals and also looking at current form and overall form as well.
Based on current home and away form I would expect us to beat the Blades, draw with Blackburn and Spuds and lose to Liverpool which would give us 37 points. That's why we need to pray that Fulham only draw with Blackburn because that will likely see them stranded on 36 points given that they are likely to lose to Arsenal, Liverpool and Boro away.
Conversely, its worth knowing that both Wigan and the Blades each have two very winnable home games left so they could both get to the 40/41 point mark.
Of course, it's natural to study form and try and work out how it's all going to finish.
No harm in that.
But when people say they can't see us winning sufficient points based on their own predictions
........and then tell everyone we are doomed, it can have a real downer effect on those trying to build momentum and belief with our Great Escape.
We cannot afford to undermine our own efforts.
Unless our own people are desperate to see us in the Championship, we must all stand together and project our belief in our survival to the team and the world at large.
People, you've got to believe. This is the Great Escape - and we can really do this!