Could Charlton be this season's Burnley?
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/who-to-back-avoid-in-the-championship"Who will be this season's Burnley? With the season just days away, today on the blog Championship analyst Tim Simon tells us which club presents no value in pre-season betting and which club will perform above pre-season bookmaker expectations.
The Championship offers shrewd punters some fantastic value year in, year out, in a league that has seen several high-profile surprises. In recent years, giant clubs such as Wolves and Leeds United have succumbed to the competitiveness of this division, suffering relegation to League One having been amongst the favourites for promotion at the start of the season. Similarly, smaller clubs such as Ian Holloway’s thrilling Blackpool side have managed to get promoted to the Premier League despite being favourites for relegation.
Last season was no different. Sean Dyche’s Burnley were as high as 81.0 pre-season to win the division and 20.0 to reach the Premier League. They ultimately reached the promised land, losing just five matches all season, finishing as runners-up to Leicester City. Meanwhile Bolton Wanderers were tipped by many to go up after a staggering run of form at the end of 2012-13 which almost saw them reach the play-offs. It never materialised. Having started the season at odd of 4.0 to earn promotion to the Premier League, Dougie Freedman’s side got off to a shocking start and barely recovered, labouring to a 14th place finish without ever threatening the top half.
With the 2014/2015 Championship season just over a week away, today I'll take a look at sides who could follow in both Burnley and Bolton’s footsteps this campaign.
Team To Avoid: Reading
Reading missed out on the play-offs on the final day of last season, after a Leonardo Ulloa header for Brighton away at Nottingham Forest saw Reading drop out of the top six in the final minute. Following this heartbreak, Nigel Adkins and his men had the opportunity to make a statement in the transfer market, to display a determination to come back stronger this season. But so far, Reading have failed to bring in a single new face to the Madejski Stadium as the ongoing takeover of the club drags on.
In a competitive division, The Royals are at a best price of 23.0 with Coral to win the Championship and 7.0 to win promotion, also with Coral. But at this moment you just can’t see them challenging anywhere near the top of the table. Businessman Samrit Bunditkitsada’s prolonged takeover of the club is forcing Adkins to stick with his current squad despite losing several senior players when their contracts expired last season. When asked about potential new signings ahead of their opening game away at Wigan Athletic, Adkins said, “The clock is ticking so it’s probably going to be highly unlikely.” That’s not something that Reading fans (or Reading backers) will have wanted to hear.
The fact is, the senior players that left the club for new challenges have to be replaced. There is still plenty of talent in a Reading squad that was in the Premier League just two years ago but it is nowhere near as strong as last season. The Royals lost Kaspars Gorkss, Jobi McAnuff, Mikele Leigertwood, Wayne Bridge and Stuart Taylor due to contracts expiring and were forced into selling star striker Adam Le Fondre to pay off a tax bill.
Le Fondre’s departure means Reading are left with just two recognised natural strikers in Pavel Pogrebnyak and Nick Blackman, which is not enough fire-power to make a serious promotion bid. Gorkss’ exit means that the central of their defence is also in desperate need of reinforcements.
Unless Adkins is able to significantly bolster the squad for the rigours of a Championship season, it is likely to be a difficult campaign for Reading. There is simply no value at the odds offered currently, to either win the division or earn promotion. Expect to see Reading posted at larger than current prices through the season presenting a solid trading opportunity.
Team To Back: Charlton Athletic
In contrast to Reading, Belgian businessman Roland Duchâtelet’s takeover of Charlton Athletic was completed in January. Although eyebrows were raised when he sacked long-serving manager Chris Powell upon arrival, his replacement Jose Riga was able to drag the Addicks out of the relegation mire with the help of Duchâtelet’s investment. The owners’ fellow countryman Bob Peeters has since taken over as manager and has begun to build an exciting squad at the Valley as they look to avoid another relegation battle this time around.
Despite losing talented midfielder Diego Poyet to West Ham, Peeters, backed by Charlton’s new financial muscle, has signed some fantastic talent. Stephen Henderson has been brought in from West Ham to become their new number one goalkeeper whilst in-front of him plenty of experience has been added at the back. Both Andre Bikey and Tal Ben-Haim have played at the top level of English football, maturity which will benefit the likes of Chris Solly, Rhoys Wiggins and Michael Morrison massively.
In midfield, Franck Moussa has been brought in from Coventry and Yoni Buyens on loan from Standard Liege to provide competition to the captain Johnnie Jackson and the raw but talented Jordan Cousins. In the wide areas, the club already possessed Callum Harriott and Lawrie Wilson but have managed to sign Johann Berg Gudmundsson from AZ Alkmaar, which is a real coup. The Icelandic international has a lethal left foot and rose to prominence with a stunning hat-trick for his country against Switzerland in a World Cup qualifier last year. Gudmundsson has the potential to light up the Championship this season.
Further forward, there are goals in this line-up. Reza Ghoochannejhad scored Iran’s only goal at the World Cup but his experience at a higher level means he could score goals at will in this division. New signings Igor Vetokele and George Tucudean have added vital competition to the Iranian, Simon Church and Joe Pigott.
Looking at Charlton's form towards the end of last season, the signings they have brought in and the backing the new manager has from the board, it is hugely surprising that Charlton are amongst the favourites to be relegated. In fact, they could be in with a shout of challenging for the play-offs. They should add to their squad further ahead of the new campaign and make a real push to finish amongst the top half of the table at least.
Like Burnley last year, the Addicks are currently at best odds of 81.0 with William Hill to win the Championship this season and 21.0 with Bet365 to earn promotion to the Premier League. Although Charlton may not ultimately have enough to win the league, expect them to trade at shorter odds during this season, performing well above bookmaker pre-season expectations and to be one of the best value bets and trading opportunities of the Championship this term."
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Comments
Come on you royals!
Wouldn't be a shock if we made the playoffs.
Wouldn't be a shock if we were mid table.
Wouldn't be a shock if we struggled.
Wouldn't be a shock if we were relegated.
Nobody really knows. However, I can tell you the feeling within the club is very optimistic, just like last season !
I'm expecting promotion, but not sure I would expect us to do it through the play-offs. If think it would be auto's if I'm honest.
Not much different really. Answer would be " bloody hope not". Would expect Burnley to set a new PL record.
Dyche clearly having had a very firm bang on the head by taking Moron Sodall to premier league football I suspect this season's burnley will closely resemble last season's charlton