Statistically (crudely at least), the most probable answer is "yes". Looking at the season as defined by the team, and not just the manager, the most striking dichotomy in results appears with and without Jordan Cousins (counting matches where he's been on the pitch for more than 20 minutes - I think; don't have my notes to hand). Here, it's P:5 W:0 D:1 L:4 without Cousins (including one match where he appeared as a substitute in the 90th minute). With Cousins though, our performances rise considerably, to P:40 W:12 D:11 L:17. Subtracting Cousins' appearances under Riga, it's still considerably better, at P:25 W:6 D:8 L:11.
That's 26 points from 25 games, but it can then be augmented with a statistic (which I don't have to hand, because I haven't had time to work it out properly - prima facie though, the intuition holds) based on an index attached to each team, dependent on how many points they took from their 11 games (5 before and 5 after) playing us, to determine their "difficulty".
Again, I don't have precision here, but a brief glance at the patterns seems to indicate that the final 15 would have a lower score than the first 30 games - not to take anything away from Riga, who I think has done an incredible job in the circumstances, I hasten to add.
Thus, based on the reasonable assumption that Powell's end of season kick would set in again, he probably would've kept us up, although perhaps not as early or securely as Riga managed in the end.
Ultimately, there are just too many qualitative aspects of that question to give anything like a comprehensive answer (would Sordell have done as well for Powell/had he really run out of ideas?), but with the tangible facts, I think it's safe to er on the side of "yes".
According to multiverse theory there is an alternate reality in which Chris Powell remained manager and kept us up. There is also one where he remained manager and took us down. There is also one where cafc never existed etc etc. So no need to speculate further, it's all happened somewhere.
I like this, while I am happy enough to be in this universe after Tuesday, in another one I'm over the moon that Holloway stayed at Palace until March and they've just been relegated by Tony Pulis' Norwich beating them 5-0.
Mind you, I am very pleased not to be in the universe where TJ & MS held out for £20M and all potential buyers walked away, leaving us bottom by a mile and a 10 point deduction to start next season in L1 and interest in buying us from Ken Bates, Carson Yeung's jailer and Vincent Tan's astrologer.
Yes, CP had plenty of games in hand and was allegedly under immense pressure to play the network players who never got a look following Riga's arrival.
I'll be gutted if Riga isnt still here next season, and the fact that I'm even saying that now is a testament to the bloke... Not in a million year s did I think I'd be saying that when he was brought in
Football is a results based game and Powell wasn't getting the results. 6 wins from 30 league games says it all. The team was bottom of the league, and we had just been knocked out of the FA Cup by Sheffield United.
Roland was right to sack Powell. In my opinion had he still been manager we would have been relegated.
I'll be gutted if Riga isnt still here next season, and the fact that I'm even saying that now is a testament to the bloke... Not in a million year s did I think I'd be saying that when he was brought in
I'll be gutted if Riga isnt still here next season, and the fact that I'm even saying that now is a testament to the bloke... Not in a million year s did I think I'd be saying that when he was brought in
Comments
Looking at the season as defined by the team, and not just the manager, the most striking dichotomy in results appears with and without Jordan Cousins (counting matches where he's been on the pitch for more than 20 minutes - I think; don't have my notes to hand).
Here, it's P:5 W:0 D:1 L:4 without Cousins (including one match where he appeared as a substitute in the 90th minute).
With Cousins though, our performances rise considerably, to P:40 W:12 D:11 L:17.
Subtracting Cousins' appearances under Riga, it's still considerably better, at P:25 W:6 D:8 L:11.
That's 26 points from 25 games, but it can then be augmented with a statistic (which I don't have to hand, because I haven't had time to work it out properly - prima facie though, the intuition holds) based on an index attached to each team, dependent on how many points they took from their 11 games (5 before and 5 after) playing us, to determine their "difficulty".
Again, I don't have precision here, but a brief glance at the patterns seems to indicate that the final 15 would have a lower score than the first 30 games - not to take anything away from Riga, who I think has done an incredible job in the circumstances, I hasten to add.
Thus, based on the reasonable assumption that Powell's end of season kick would set in again, he probably would've kept us up, although perhaps not as early or securely as Riga managed in the end.
Ultimately, there are just too many qualitative aspects of that question to give anything like a comprehensive answer (would Sordell have done as well for Powell/had he really run out of ideas?), but with the tangible facts, I think it's safe to er on the side of "yes".
Mind you, I am very pleased not to be in the universe where TJ & MS held out for £20M and all potential buyers walked away, leaving us bottom by a mile and a 10 point deduction to start next season in L1 and interest in buying us from Ken Bates, Carson Yeung's jailer and Vincent Tan's astrologer.
Is he a CAFC legend still? Yes of course.
Am I sick of talking about him STILL?Absolutely! Let it go.
E
S
Now stop please stop this madness
That doesn't mean he is a bad manager.
I think that the resources he had he did a great job and I don't think many (if any) managers within our reach would have kept us up.
I think we just got really lucky having Riga, a manager unknown by our fans put in charge.
He has really performed a miracle and would love him here next season.
6 wins from 30 league games says it all. The team was bottom of the league, and we had just been knocked out of the FA Cup by Sheffield United.
Roland was right to sack Powell. In my opinion had he still been manager we would have been relegated.
27 points in 30 games is where he was at