As far as my own position is concerned, the reason I take issue with the claim that I have an "agenda" around RD is that it isn't true. In fact, I bought a Belgian flag and took it to Wigan, which was done to provide an upbeat welcome to him on the cover of VOTV110. Before the picture was taken he then sold Kermorgant, which I regarded and still regard as a foolish decision. This meant the Voice had to take a more nuanced line, but the flag is still there on the front page and it is the only one I have seen to date at a Charlton match.
It then emerged - as the stats set out by Matt Wright in the latest issue amply demonstrate - that the players RD had brought in, presumably to strengthen the squad, were hopelessly inadequate for that purpose. In other words they were nonsense signings. Events show that to have been the case.
Finally, we have the circumstances surrounding the sacking of Chris Powell, which were the trigger for the G21 - not the fact he was sacked, but what happened prior to the Sheffield United game and had been happening for weeks. The point of it being a group is and was to show that it is not one person's view, but as others involved know, because we have discussed it, I am by no means the person most critical or sceptical of RD.
Against those issues I would put the pitch investment and the signing of Wiggins, Fox and Dhillon. I also know Katrien Meire has made a positive impression at The Valley and it's clear that she and by extension RD have a much more inclusive idea of how to run a football club than their predecessors. I welcome all that and hope to see more of the same. I believe RD is an intelligent person and not a crook, which cannot be assumed in football.
I'm unable to give any weight to players we didn't sign or the Sparrows Lane development as it stands, because it involves no RD input and no RD money. However, it's obviously not a negative and may well become a big positive. But we should judge him on players he does sign, including some of our existing squad, and what he actually does. In the same way I am not much persuaded by what has appeared in the media.
Further, If we stay up some of the negatives will be wiped out, since the risk of relegation is a big consideration in how stupid the January transfer activity was.
I'm also aware that people are far more likely to come up to me and moan about RD than to tell me that they think he's wonderful, but I am not responsible for the views held by other contributors to the Voice, neither do I suppress opinions that are contrary to my own - unlike for example the club programme, which only allows one perspective and lacks credibility as a consequence. If any publication is unbalanced and therefore obviously has an agenda it's the Valley Review, but inevitably so.
In the end I publish a fanzine and in general it will take a critical standpoint. Those who see it as one-eyed, however, might take note that my article about the prospects for the summer is headlined "Daring to dream again", which is hardly a negative slant.
If RD brings success to Charlton - or even stabilises it as a half-decent Championship club - then he'll have my support. I'll bring the flag out again to show it, and I don't discount that happening. But I don't go in for mindless optimism either.
I believe you but I have to say that without mindless optimism I think I would find following Charlton to be very depressing.
Rational analysis suggests: 1) we have a 95% chance of staying up sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html 2) The chances of staying up have been improving week by week since Riga took over - they were as bad as 50:50 at one point 3) There are 15 out of contract players of which perhaps ten will leave this summer - there is a challenge to retain the best players 4) Duchatelet will learn from the football watched and the transfers and loans to date. He would not be that successful in business if he repeated mistakes 5) We are close to mid table form but we are not a mid-table team - difficult to quantify what is needed to make that leap 6) the margins for victory and defeat are narrow and there are many variables both on the pitch and with contract negotiations
It is my observation of the above rather than any cosy chats with people at the club which have led me to believe that Riga is leading us to safety and that there is an opportunity to build a mid table team or even better for next season. If Duchatelet fails to avail of the opportunity provided this summer then I will be the first to address that failing.
And finally this is not chess it is football - many opinions may appear opposite in their nature but still valid - enjoy the game tomorrow!
Why can't some people just accept it when their point has been proved wrong, rather than deflect the issue or move off in another direction? You look a lot more credible if you take it on the chin, rather than react childishly.
Rational analysis suggests: 1) we have a 95% chance of staying up sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html 2) The chances of staying up have been improving week by week since Riga took over - they were as bad as 50:50 at one point 3) There are 15 out of contract players of which perhaps ten will leave this summer - there is a challenge to retain the best players 4) Duchatelet will learn from the football watched and the transfers and loans to date. He would not be that successful in business if he repeated mistakes 5) We are close to mid table form but we are not a mid-table team - difficult to quantify what is needed to make that leap 6) the margins for victory and defeat are narrow and there are many variables both on the pitch and with contract negotiations
It is my observation of the above rather than any cosy chats with people at the club which have led me to believe that Riga is leading us to safety and that there is an opportunity to build a mid table team or even better for next season. If Duchatelet fails to avail of the opportunity provided this summer then I will be the first to address that failing.
And finally this is not chess it is football - many opinions may appear opposite in their nature but still valid - enjoy the game tomorrow!
Playing devil's advocate (an art at which I am skilled ;-))...
1) We have a 0% chance of staying up if we lose both games and those clubs below us get enough to overtake us. Probability means very little in football. 2) The smaller the number of games, the larger the numbers will change from week to week. If our chances now are 95% and what happens in my 1) above is realised it would have gone from 95% to 0% in the space of 5 days. 3) This, along with the decisions in January and the previous summer, and the pitch, are key reasons why we've struggled. It could have been so very different, and now we're at risk of needing a considerably bigger rebuild than might have otherwise been required. 4) Or he may see survival as a justification of those decisions most of us think were bloody reckless, and get Karel and Dudu to repeat their remarkable January efforts. 5) We have scraped through this season through by doing little more than keeping our heads above water, playing percentage football to get results at the right time. Yeovil and Barnsley were the two worst sides at the Valley this season, but we're ahead of them because two talented kids are keeping our midfield competitive. Our victories under Riga have hardly been authoritative - I'd argue our defeats have been generally worse.
My observation is that we can conclude - at best - that Riga is steering us to safety, given a favourable wind and currents. Leadership is a very different quality.
That's not to say that Riga hasn't impressed in certain ways - his man-management appears to be right up there, he's maintained a good fighting spirit amongst the players and got Dervite and Sordell in particular looking like decent players. He's also, as I've said several times, been able to take advantage of a kind fixture list in his early days with which he could engender some belief - but he did take advantage, to his credit.
But I'm yet to be convinced Powell wouldn't have achieved the same, and that means I've yet to be convinced that I've seen anything to persuade me the change has been either necessary or transforming. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll stay up, but I think if there's been any difference it has been in stability at the top - by which I mean the absence of the struggles between RD and Powell which ultimately made the latter's position untenable - and that's not necessarily down to the qualities of the manager as much as his compliance. Or pre-existing trust, of course.
I'm more comfortable with RD than I was with TJ/MS by some distance, but so far I get the impression of a guy that underestimated what he had bought, the league in which we play and the manager we had. This is all fairly fundamental stuff he's not got right. The summer is where it will be most evident how he intends to improve the club, and hopefully it will be in the Championship. The pitch is a great start, but I hope whoever is the manager is backed in the transfer market to build a Championship squad. Blackburn showed us on Saturday what one of those looks like, and we were a long way short of that quality notwithstanding our excellent spirit.
If we do stay up – and I agree it is likely we will. Is it fair to say that vindicates the approach of the new regime since taking over? Or have we merely been fortunate. The amount of points needed this year is going to be a lot less than last year. I think people can make their own minds up and are free to express them on a forum or in an independent fanzine. Now if you disagree with those comments, fair enough, you can say you disagree. But making snide comments about the people you disagree with in terms of their motives is not right.
Personally, I don't really get the fortunate to stay up angle.
Our form over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses. Over the course of the season that would see us in about 15th/16th.
At the moment there are 5 teams that are worse than us, the league table says so. I think its a little harsh on JR and the players to label it fortunate especially when each of those 10 games have been played every 3.5 days and the defeats, although heavy, have been against in form teams (bar a sloppy Barnsley performance)
@rikofold 1) Our chances actually improved on Saturday because teams with even less games left to play than us lost another game. Sure Doncaster might beat Leicester away but the bookies are offering 25s which shows where we really are but this is not to negate the feelings of fans who have had to live with a 30-50% chance of relegation all season. We deserve better! In actual fact we have an 1 in 8 chance of going down even if we lose both games - the other teams have left it too late and Sordell's hat-trick has virtually sealed it. 2) Our chances improved not because we started taking the division by storm but a WLWL sequence (with the odd draw) while teams below us mainly drew or lost. The table looks a lot better than it did in February thanks to 1.4 points per game 3) We always needed a rebuild this summer - in fact we needed one last summer! Duchatelet has the wealth to finance it without blinking. He's doing the pitch but we have no idea about the budget for players coming in. His company also has access to a European and African scouting network 4) I agree 100% that there is a rick that survival might be used to justify very thin efforts on player acquisition? I think the ball is in RD's court to state the challenge and his assessment of what's next... By definition the challenge is with fan groups to talk to the club and clarify what he means...eg what does break even mean and over what time span - I see Mundell Fleming addresses this in Trust News.
After we stay up there will still be some who want to debate the whys and wherefores of this season. Personally I will be trying to forget it as quickly as possible! The summer plans are what are important and the release of the fixture list is always a date in my calendar. Absolutely no regrets for the past and no fear of the future.
Personally, I don't really get the fortunate to stay up angle.
Our form over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses. Over the course of the season that would see us in about 15th/16th.
At the moment there are 5 teams that are worse than us, the league table says so. I think its a little harsh on JR and the players to label it fortunate especially when each of those 10 games have been played every 3.5 days and the defeats, although heavy, have been against in form teams (bar a sloppy Barnsley performance)
I said something similar in the match preview.
IF we stay up then we deserve to stay up, if we go down then we deserve to go down. That's how league football works.
That's not to say that clubs don't have fortune, both good and bad along the way (and it rarely "evens itself out over a season" but that is another point).
IF we stay up, and I believe and have believed that for some time that we will, then that does not mean that everything done by TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely right and justified.
If we go down, and I don't believe we will and have believed that for some time too, then that doesn't mean that everything TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely wrong and not justified.
The real world just doesn't work like that. There are no simple, one line solutions despite what pub bores, some politicians and football radio phone-in punters might try to make us believe.
Even in the most successful season there will be good choices and bad mistakes so this far from successful will be just the same.
WHEN we stay up I will be delighted. I will also be hoping that the Club continues to move forward to the point where finishing just above the bottom three isn't seen as "success" or a justification for the avalanche of "I told you so, everything in the garden is rosy, the owner can do no wrong, etc etc" that will hit CL as soon as safety is secured.
I still think RD will be good for us in the long term but by long term I mean years. And until then I think it is going to be a bumpy ride.
Once again @seriously_red propagates the myth that Roland Duchatelet can build up our squad with his pocket money if he wishes. That is not fair to either our fans or to RD himself.
He is said ( by sources close to CAFC who have met him) to be "worth 500m". However I am not clear if that figure is largely based on his equity in his main business. If so, he really is not going to sell that to fund a replacement of Kermogant.
More pertinently I was recently told by a Charlton fan who is a friend of Kevin McCabe that his personal fortune is twice that of RD. Kevin McCabe owns one third division football club. Roland Duchatelet owns six across Europe. It is doubtful that any of them break even, and this one will lose him about 5m this year. It is also worth mentioning that he has a large number of siblings whom he has to think about, given his age.
I don't expect a large amount of new money, and it has to be said that nothing RD has stated leads me to any different conclusion. The problem is that strikers at least cost a large amount of money, as Clem Snide indicated above, I heard the same figure for Wickham and Best, and then we have the infamous benchmark of Noel Hunt. That is one reason why I consider the sale of YK to have been a big miscalculation, whereas in the case of Stephens I can see the argument for.
@rikofold 1) Our chances actually improved on Saturday because teams with even less games left to play than us lost another game. Sure Doncaster might beat Leicester away but the bookies are offering 25s which shows where we really are but this is not to negate the feelings of fans who have had to live with a 30-50% chance of relegation all season. We deserve better! In actual fact we have an 1 in 8 chance of going down even if we lose both games - the other teams have left it too late and Sordell's hat-trick has virtually sealed it. 2) Our chances improved not because we started taking the division by storm but a WLWL sequence (with the odd draw) while teams below us mainly drew or lost. The table looks a lot better than it did in February thanks to 1.4 points per game 3) We always needed a rebuild this summer - in fact we needed one last summer! Duchatelet has the wealth to finance it without blinking. He's doing the pitch but we have no idea about the budget for players coming in. His company also has access to a European and African scouting network 4) I agree 100% that there is a rick that survival might be used to justify very thin efforts on player acquisition? I think the ball is in RD's court to state the challenge and his assessment of what's next... By definition the challenge is with fan groups to talk to the club and clarify what he means...eg what does break even mean and over what time span - I see Mundell Fleming addresses this in Trust News.
After we stay up there will still be some who want to debate the whys and wherefores of this season. Personally I will be trying to forget it as quickly as possible! The summer plans are what are important and the release of the fixture list is always a date in my calendar. Absolutely no regrets for the past and no fear of the future.
Do you really believe those probabilities? What do they actually mean? Do they account for three of our players getting sent off in the 2nd minute tomorrow for punching the referee? If we score 7 goals tomorrow, what chance Watford score 8? I'm using straw man arguments because it's all nonsense and you know it.
What I actually think is this: 0) Probability stats are nonsense. Not sure I made that clear before. ;-) 1) We have our destiny in our own hands, but two tricky games ahead. We need a win from those two games to be certain of staying up, because this time of the season has a habit of throwing up all kinds of results - 2-2 draw against Palace anyone? Keeper Jimmy Glass's last minute goal? 2) We have taken advantage of a number of teams in poor form, but lost winnable games and got hammered in those we might have expected to lose. This has damaged our goal difference significantly, which makes this week all the harder. 3) We are two years overdue in strengthening the squad. This needs to be done intelligently, and we should take the long term view. We have some perfectly good players within our squad but a number who simply aren't good enough. We need to strengthen the top 16 and supplement with what's increasingly looking like a fabulous group of young players. 4) Hopefully RD has learned lessons and will rely on advice for the above from someone experienced in English football and specifically the Championship rather than a conficted and remote Israeli agent. We need a team, not spare individuals only interested in playing for themselves. Yes Reza, Thuram - I'm looking at you.
I agree that we need to look forward, but we do need to learn the lessons of the recent past or we'll be back here next season - regardless of whether we're in League One or the Championship.
Personally, I don't really get the fortunate to stay up angle.
Our form over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses. Over the course of the season that would see us in about 15th/16th.
At the moment there are 5 teams that are worse than us, the league table says so. I think its a little harsh on JR and the players to label it fortunate especially when each of those 10 games have been played every 3.5 days and the defeats, although heavy, have been against in form teams (bar a sloppy Barnsley performance)
IF we stay up, and I believe and have believed that for some time that we will, then that does not mean that everything done by TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely right and justified.
If we go down, and I don't believe we will and have believed that for some time too, then that doesn't mean that everything TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely wrong and not justified.
The real world just doesn't work like that. There are no simple, one line solutions despite what pub bores, some politicians and football radio phone-in punters might try to make us believe.
Even in the most successful season there will be good choices and bad mistakes so this far from successful will be just the same.
Very well put. It is always tempting to simplify and to generalise, but as you rightly say the real world is complex and uncertain. Good judgements can turn out badly while a poor decision might actually work out well.
We need a draw tomorrow to be 99% certain ~ I'll take that although a win will make us all feel better. And yes I definitely believe the probabilities - fans have explained them on the preview thread... Personally I don't think goal difference will be an issue I agree 100% with your points 3 and 4. Quite simply reaching the top six last season was the easiest it was going to be for a while and it is simpler / less risky to strengthen the squad every summer and not wait for all of the 2011 contracts to expire. But we are here now and very nearly home and dry. I think your second point is the most interesting for we are in the bottom eight and have been hammered by top eight teams. One question for the summer is what will it take to become a middle eight club? We are there on current form but that varies and we need better players to secure a 12th place finish. The biggest question is how long and what will it take to become a top 8 side.
Once again @seriously_red propagates the myth that Roland Duchatelet can build up our squad with his pocket money if he wishes. That is not fair to either our fans or to RD himself.
He is said ( by sources close to CAFC who have met him) to be "worth 500m". However I am not clear if that figure is largely based on his equity in his main business. If so, he really is not going to sell that to fund a replacement of Kermogant.
More pertinently I was recently told by a Charlton fan who is a friend of Kevin McCabe that his personal fortune is twice that of RD. Kevin McCabe owns one third division football club. Roland Duchatelet owns six across Europe. It is doubtful that any of them break even, and this one will lose him about 5m this year. It is also worth mentioning that he has a large number of siblings whom he has to think about, given his age.
I don't expect a large amount of new money, and it has to be said that nothing RD has stated leads me to any different conclusion. The problem is that strikers at least cost a large amount of money, as Clem Snide indicated above, I heard the same figure for Wickham and Best, and then we have the infamous benchmark of Noel Hunt. That is one reason why I consider the sale of YK to have been a big miscalculation, whereas in the case of Stephens I can see the argument for.
Did you look into Richard Murray's eyes yet to establish the veracity of NLA 's account. The only myth being propagated is that there was a miscalculation. You continue to do this in an effort to assert your expertise above and beyond that of Duchatelet.
Noel Hunt wtf? Completely irrelevant and clearly shows your misunderstanding of Duchatelet's options. Once again I refer you to Batshuayi signed by Liege a month after RD bought the club...fee: €0? Current value £7m contracted until 2018.
Of course Duchatelet would wish each club to contribute over time to the group. The point which you clearly do not see is that he has the resources to invest if their is a business case - new pitch, new academy, new players.
The question remains wide open as to his preferred timetable and level of player acquisition to support the academy and other sources. RD does not appear to do multi-million pound signings and contrary to your inference I have never suggested otherwise.
The picture I have painted consistently is that remaining in the bottom six is a waste of time and money whereas climbing the table will generate more revenues and thus justify investment in the squad.
The picture which I see you have painted is one of fear, doubt and blame which comes out most notably when we lose a game.
Oh, and better engagement with the fans for a start - slick PR doesn't wash with me.
100% agree and something I subscribed to throughout my time on the Trust Board for the fans can help accelerate the growth of the club. And their views and opinions should be heard. Unfortunately some of the fan leadership are so busy asserting their expertise over how to run CAFC and where to apportion blame that I doubt that any form of interaction looks very attractive. Both sides need to consider an acceptable engagement model quite carefully before getting tucked in.
If we do stay up – and I agree it is likely we will. Is it fair to say that vindicates the approach of the new regime since taking over? Or have we merely been fortunate. The amount of points needed this year is going to be a lot less than last year. I think people can make their own minds up and are free to express them on a forum or in an independent fanzine. Now if you disagree with those comments, fair enough, you can say you disagree. But making snide comments about the people you disagree with in terms of their motives is not right.
Excellent point. Back to your initial question, yes I do think Riga has marginally improved our performances (more mobility, slightly more attacking ambition) such that we'll beat the drop. I think the replacement of Chris Powell was the right decision; had we been relegated under him, Duchatelet's inaction would have been negligent and irresponsible. Of course we'll never know if Powell would have saved us.
Once again @seriously_red propagates the myth that Roland Duchatelet can build up our squad with his pocket money if he wishes. That is not fair to either our fans or to RD himself.
He is said ( by sources close to CAFC who have met him) to be "worth 500m". However I am not clear if that figure is largely based on his equity in his main business. If so, he really is not going to sell that to fund a replacement of Kermogant.
More pertinently I was recently told by a Charlton fan who is a friend of Kevin McCabe that his personal fortune is twice that of RD. Kevin McCabe owns one third division football club. Roland Duchatelet owns six across Europe. It is doubtful that any of them break even, and this one will lose him about 5m this year. It is also worth mentioning that he has a large number of siblings whom he has to think about, given his age.
I don't expect a large amount of new money, and it has to be said that nothing RD has stated leads me to any different conclusion. The problem is that strikers at least cost a large amount of money, as Clem Snide indicated above, I heard the same figure for Wickham and Best, and then we have the infamous benchmark of Noel Hunt. That is one reason why I consider the sale of YK to have been a big miscalculation, whereas in the case of Stephens I can see the argument for.
Comments
Rational analysis suggests:
1) we have a 95% chance of staying up sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html
2) The chances of staying up have been improving week by week since Riga took over - they were as bad as 50:50 at one point
3) There are 15 out of contract players of which perhaps ten will leave this summer - there is a challenge to retain the best players
4) Duchatelet will learn from the football watched and the transfers and loans to date. He would not be that successful in business if he repeated mistakes
5) We are close to mid table form but we are not a mid-table team - difficult to quantify what is needed to make that leap
6) the margins for victory and defeat are narrow and there are many variables both on the pitch and with contract negotiations
It is my observation of the above rather than any cosy chats with people at the club which have led me to believe that Riga is leading us to safety and that there is an opportunity to build a mid table team or even better for next season. If Duchatelet fails to avail of the opportunity provided this summer then I will be the first to address that failing.
And finally this is not chess it is football - many opinions may appear opposite in their nature but still valid - enjoy the game tomorrow!
1) We have a 0% chance of staying up if we lose both games and those clubs below us get enough to overtake us. Probability means very little in football.
2) The smaller the number of games, the larger the numbers will change from week to week. If our chances now are 95% and what happens in my 1) above is realised it would have gone from 95% to 0% in the space of 5 days.
3) This, along with the decisions in January and the previous summer, and the pitch, are key reasons why we've struggled. It could have been so very different, and now we're at risk of needing a considerably bigger rebuild than might have otherwise been required.
4) Or he may see survival as a justification of those decisions most of us think were bloody reckless, and get Karel and Dudu to repeat their remarkable January efforts.
5) We have scraped through this season through by doing little more than keeping our heads above water, playing percentage football to get results at the right time. Yeovil and Barnsley were the two worst sides at the Valley this season, but we're ahead of them because two talented kids are keeping our midfield competitive. Our victories under Riga have hardly been authoritative - I'd argue our defeats have been generally worse.
My observation is that we can conclude - at best - that Riga is steering us to safety, given a favourable wind and currents. Leadership is a very different quality.
That's not to say that Riga hasn't impressed in certain ways - his man-management appears to be right up there, he's maintained a good fighting spirit amongst the players and got Dervite and Sordell in particular looking like decent players. He's also, as I've said several times, been able to take advantage of a kind fixture list in his early days with which he could engender some belief - but he did take advantage, to his credit.
But I'm yet to be convinced Powell wouldn't have achieved the same, and that means I've yet to be convinced that I've seen anything to persuade me the change has been either necessary or transforming. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll stay up, but I think if there's been any difference it has been in stability at the top - by which I mean the absence of the struggles between RD and Powell which ultimately made the latter's position untenable - and that's not necessarily down to the qualities of the manager as much as his compliance. Or pre-existing trust, of course.
I'm more comfortable with RD than I was with TJ/MS by some distance, but so far I get the impression of a guy that underestimated what he had bought, the league in which we play and the manager we had. This is all fairly fundamental stuff he's not got right. The summer is where it will be most evident how he intends to improve the club, and hopefully it will be in the Championship. The pitch is a great start, but I hope whoever is the manager is backed in the transfer market to build a Championship squad. Blackburn showed us on Saturday what one of those looks like, and we were a long way short of that quality notwithstanding our excellent spirit.
Our form over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses. Over the course of the season that would see us in about 15th/16th.
At the moment there are 5 teams that are worse than us, the league table says so. I think its a little harsh on JR and the players to label it fortunate especially when each of those 10 games have been played every 3.5 days and the defeats, although heavy, have been against in form teams (bar a sloppy Barnsley performance)
1) Our chances actually improved on Saturday because teams with even less games left to play than us lost another game. Sure Doncaster might beat Leicester away but the bookies are offering 25s which shows where we really are but this is not to negate the feelings of fans who have had to live with a 30-50% chance of relegation all season. We deserve better! In actual fact we have an 1 in 8 chance of going down even if we lose both games - the other teams have left it too late and Sordell's hat-trick has virtually sealed it.
2) Our chances improved not because we started taking the division by storm but a WLWL sequence (with the odd draw) while teams below us mainly drew or lost. The table looks a lot better than it did in February thanks to 1.4 points per game
3) We always needed a rebuild this summer - in fact we needed one last summer! Duchatelet has the wealth to finance it without blinking. He's doing the pitch but we have no idea about the budget for players coming in. His company also has access to a European and African scouting network
4) I agree 100% that there is a rick that survival might be used to justify very thin efforts on player acquisition? I think the ball is in RD's court to state the challenge and his assessment of what's next... By definition the challenge is with fan groups to talk to the club and clarify what he means...eg what does break even mean and over what time span - I see Mundell Fleming addresses this in Trust News.
After we stay up there will still be some who want to debate the whys and wherefores of this season. Personally I will be trying to forget it as quickly as possible! The summer plans are what are important and the release of the fixture list is always a date in my calendar. Absolutely no regrets for the past and no fear of the future.
IF we stay up then we deserve to stay up, if we go down then we deserve to go down. That's how league football works.
That's not to say that clubs don't have fortune, both good and bad along the way (and it rarely "evens itself out over a season" but that is another point).
IF we stay up, and I believe and have believed that for some time that we will, then that does not mean that everything done by TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely right and justified.
If we go down, and I don't believe we will and have believed that for some time too, then that doesn't mean that everything TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely wrong and not justified.
The real world just doesn't work like that. There are no simple, one line solutions despite what pub bores, some politicians and football radio phone-in punters might try to make us believe.
Even in the most successful season there will be good choices and bad mistakes so this far from successful will be just the same.
WHEN we stay up I will be delighted. I will also be hoping that the Club continues to move forward to the point where finishing just above the bottom three isn't seen as "success" or a justification for the avalanche of "I told you so, everything in the garden is rosy, the owner can do no wrong, etc etc" that will hit CL as soon as safety is secured.
I still think RD will be good for us in the long term but by long term I mean years. And until then I think it is going to be a bumpy ride.
I agree with this, problem will very much be short term.
Need some new blood on and off the pitch.
He is said ( by sources close to CAFC who have met him) to be "worth 500m". However I am not clear if that figure is largely based on his equity in his main business. If so, he really is not going to sell that to fund a replacement of Kermogant.
More pertinently I was recently told by a Charlton fan who is a friend of Kevin McCabe that his personal fortune is twice that of RD. Kevin McCabe owns one third division football club. Roland Duchatelet owns six across Europe. It is doubtful that any of them break even, and this one will lose him about 5m this year. It is also worth mentioning that he has a large number of siblings whom he has to think about, given his age.
I don't expect a large amount of new money, and it has to be said that nothing RD has stated leads me to any different conclusion. The problem is that strikers at least cost a large amount of money, as Clem Snide indicated above, I heard the same figure for Wickham and Best, and then we have the infamous benchmark of Noel Hunt. That is one reason why I consider the sale of YK to have been a big miscalculation, whereas in the case of Stephens I can see the argument for.
What I actually think is this:
0) Probability stats are nonsense. Not sure I made that clear before. ;-)
1) We have our destiny in our own hands, but two tricky games ahead. We need a win from those two games to be certain of staying up, because this time of the season has a habit of throwing up all kinds of results - 2-2 draw against Palace anyone? Keeper Jimmy Glass's last minute goal?
2) We have taken advantage of a number of teams in poor form, but lost winnable games and got hammered in those we might have expected to lose. This has damaged our goal difference significantly, which makes this week all the harder.
3) We are two years overdue in strengthening the squad. This needs to be done intelligently, and we should take the long term view. We have some perfectly good players within our squad but a number who simply aren't good enough. We need to strengthen the top 16 and supplement with what's increasingly looking like a fabulous group of young players.
4) Hopefully RD has learned lessons and will rely on advice for the above from someone experienced in English football and specifically the Championship rather than a conficted and remote Israeli agent. We need a team, not spare individuals only interested in playing for themselves. Yes Reza, Thuram - I'm looking at you.
I agree that we need to look forward, but we do need to learn the lessons of the recent past or we'll be back here next season - regardless of whether we're in League One or the Championship.
If we go down, and I don't believe we will and have believed that for some time too, then that doesn't mean that everything TJ/MS, SCP, JR and RD was completely wrong and not justified.
The real world just doesn't work like that. There are no simple, one line solutions despite what pub bores, some politicians and football radio phone-in punters might try to make us believe.
Even in the most successful season there will be good choices and bad mistakes so this far from successful will be just the same.
Very well put. It is always tempting to simplify and to generalise, but as you rightly say the real world is complex and uncertain. Good judgements can turn out badly while a poor decision might actually work out well.
I agree 100% with your points 3 and 4. Quite simply reaching the top six last season was the easiest it was going to be for a while and it is simpler / less risky to strengthen the squad every summer and not wait for all of the 2011 contracts to expire. But we are here now and very nearly home and dry.
I think your second point is the most interesting for we are in the bottom eight and have been hammered by top eight teams. One question for the summer is what will it take to become a middle eight club? We are there on current form but that varies and we need better players to secure a 12th place finish.
The biggest question is how long and what will it take to become a top 8 side.
Noel Hunt wtf? Completely irrelevant and clearly shows your misunderstanding of Duchatelet's options. Once again I refer you to Batshuayi signed by Liege a month after RD bought the club...fee: €0? Current value £7m contracted until 2018.
Of course Duchatelet would wish each club to contribute over time to the group. The point which you clearly do not see is that he has the resources to invest if their is a business case - new pitch, new academy, new players.
The question remains wide open as to his preferred timetable and level of player acquisition to support the academy and other sources. RD does not appear to do multi-million pound signings and contrary to your inference I have never suggested otherwise.
The picture I have painted consistently is that remaining in the bottom six is a waste of time and money whereas climbing the table will generate more revenues and thus justify investment in the squad.
The picture which I see you have painted is one of fear, doubt and blame which comes out most notably when we lose a game.
Both sides need to consider an acceptable engagement model quite carefully before getting tucked in.