How many points needed to stay up?

KHA

Towards the end of last season I started tracking how the clubs in the bottom half of the league would end up if they continued to accumulate points in their remaining games at the same rate as they had done in the preceding ten games. I didn’t for one minute believe this gave accurate predictions for individual clubs because form is changing all the time. However, I did think it might give a reasonably good estimate of how many points would be needed to escape relegation.

In fact last season it did. I did it when we had nine matches to play - it suggested that 53 points would be needed to avoid the drop (if you didn’t want to rely on goal difference). I did it again when we had seven matches left, and again with five matches left. In both these latter two cases, it predicted 55 points would be needed, which, in fact, turned out to be the case.

I posted these results at the time, although nobody seemed interested! I’ve just done it again and, for what it’s worth (and just in case anyone is interested this time), it predicts 41 points will be needed - historically a very low level.

As I have just said, I don’t believe there’s much validity in trying to analyse the figures more finely, especially not at the individual club level. However, I’ll just add one point of this type. The current bottom three clubs are showing predictions of 39/40 points and then there is a jump to the next three, who are showing 44/45. Thus, if one of the bottom three ran into some form, the prediction for the required points could easily jump four points or so.

dansmudge

Well I found it interesting mate but maybe that just makes me massive geek!

Cheers for that.

Sonicstud85

So what's your point Vanessa?

Chris_from_Sidcup

I'd be astounded if 41 points was anywhere near enough. I'd go for 46. That means Birmingham and Donny winning 3 of their last 10 games and us winning 5 of our last 13.

Can't see Millwall or Yeovil winning 5 of their last 10 games and at the moment can't see Blackpool winning 3!

jackmasterflash

looking at our results from february when new signings came in, they have gone up. previously we had won 7 games altogether, but since then in less than two months we have gained 4 wins, 2 i nthe cup though. it is clear that form has picked up and also, we could have had more wins, wigan was close and huddersfield too.

Absurdistan

I'd go for 42
The meaning of life avoiding relegation.

AddickedAthletic

I think this is interesting and hope it works out about right, gut feeling is mid forties will be needed

johnnyhumphrey

Six or seven wins or equivalent thereof--assuming Millwall make a fight of it.I like the fact that we still have Barnsley, Bolton,Yeovil and Blackpool to play.Jose Riga is still new to the club and should therefore be able to combat complacency in remaining games--he seems more attack minded,once we rediscover goal-scoring then we may well bury one or more of these teams.

mid_life_crisis

45.

dizzee

62

Ormiston_Addick

Points needed to stay up over the last 10 seasons in the Championship....

54, 40, 42, 47,47, 53, 43, 43, 50 & 51.

On average you need 47 points to stay up over that period - but you might need a lot more!

seriously_red

Thank you for that KHA. At the moment the Fink Tank predictor has us finishing on 47 and the bottom three on 41 or 42. No idea how this is calculated but might be similar to what you do? That is very low against a normal season as others have stated. Let's see how this shapes up over the weeks to come.

Dave2l

Ormiston Addick said:

Points needed to stay up over the last 10 seasons in the Championship....

54, 40, 42, 47,47, 53, 43, 43, 50 & 51.

On average you need 47 points to stay up over that period - but you might need a lot more!

Quite an interesting contrast esp between 54,40.

Where on 32 points with 13 games to go.

5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats. 48 points that would be. Tough ask but do-able

No point in picking out games to rule out. We CAN beat Burnley, it's just gana be bl**dy difficult.

AdamAddick

forest are 23rd in the form table i think we can get something from that game

covered_end_junior

Reckon 45 will do it this year.

AddickFC81

Ormiston Addick said:

Points needed to stay up over the last 10 seasons in the Championship....

54, 40, 42, 47,47, 53, 43, 43, 50 & 51.

On average you need 47 points to stay up over that period - but you might need a lot more!

Did you reinstate points lost through points deduction and see what it would have been without deductions?

Ormiston_Addick

AddickFC81 said:

Ormiston Addick said:

Points needed to stay up over the last 10 seasons in the Championship....

54, 40, 42, 47,47, 53, 43, 43, 50 & 51.

On average you need 47 points to stay up over that period - but you might need a lot more!

Did you reinstate points lost through points deduction and see what it would have been without deductions?

No, didn't think of that!

I guess that would have applied to Pompey and who else? Saints?

floydroadfaithfull

Think this year 43 will see u safe as form is so poor at the bottom

The_President

Ormiston Addick said:

Points needed to stay up over the last 10 seasons in the Championship....

54, 40, 42, 47,47, 53, 43, 43, 50 & 51.

On average you need 47 points to stay up over that period - but you might need a lot more!

Just thought i'd bump this from end of last season - how many will be needed this season?
And last seasons was 44 to add on to the end of that.