Good article but, to play devil's advocate, there is another way relegation to L1 could be viewed.
Let's say RD's strategy is to break things down, build a better infrastructure, get us back to the prem within the next 5-10 years, then sell for a shed load more than he paid.
If this is true then he could see relegation to L1 as a minor blip to be taken in his stride - he has a buffer of £4mill which will cover a large proportion of his relegation 'loss'. Yes, it's a gamble funding the additional losses in the hope that we go back up quickly but then the whole of football at Championship level is a gamble - to keep us up this season and compete next year would still take considerable investment with no guarantee of outcome - perhaps he is just plumping for a different type of gamble. Maybe one he sees as being a better bet.
None of us, least of all you ;-), would deny that, immediately pre-takeover, any infrastructure we had was a sham so he has to build some sort of a solid base whichever path he chooses. Due diligence notwithstanding, I wouldn't mind betting he's now found it a bigger mess than he thought he was taking on.
You argue that he is also playing with the fan base's loyalty. In the short term, of course, but we are an incredibly fickle bunch and will ultimately forgive almost anything if it ends up with another spell in the promised land. We'll all be back in droves at the hint of success - after all, we've been through worse and all come back.
This appraisal may be wrong and going down to L1 scares the bejesus out of RD. But, there is a case for him not being overtly concerned about it.
Good article but, to play devil's advocate, there is another way relegation to L1 could be viewed.
Let's say RD's strategy is to break things down, build a better infrastructure, get us back to the prem within the next 5-10 years, then sell for a shed load more than he paid.
If this is true then he could see relegation to L1 as a minor blip to be taken in his stride - he has a buffer of £4mill which will cover a large proportion of his relegation 'loss'. Yes, it's a gamble funding the additional losses in the hope that we go back up quickly but then the whole of football at Championship level is a gamble - to keep us up this season and compete next year would still take considerable investment with no guarantee of outcome - perhaps he is just plumping for a different type of gamble. Maybe one he sees as being a better bet.
None of us, least of all you ;-), would deny that, immediately pre-takeover, any infrastructure we had was a sham so he has to build some sort of a solid base whichever path he chooses. Due diligence notwithstanding, I wouldn't mind betting he's now found it a bigger mess than he thought he was taking on.
You argue that he is also playing with the fan base's loyalty. In the short term, of course, but we are an incredibly fickle bunch and will ultimately forgive almost anything if it ends up with another spell in the promised land. We'll all be back in droves at the hint of success - after all, we've been through worse and all come back.
This appraisal may be wrong and going down to L1 scares the bejesus out of RD. But, there is a case for him not being overtly concerned about it.
I see those arguments and I can understand why RD might look at the world like that. However, there has been investment in the team, I think more was attempted on the deadline and I expect there will be more in the form of loans - I'm just not convinced they will be domestic. No real point in that if you are relaxed about relegation.
Whether we'll be back in droves at the first hint of success, I doubt. We didn't recover the 2008/09 season ticket base in 2012/13 and I doubt if we'd recover the 2013//14 numbers on returning to the Championship after relegation. Ultimately the damage would only be undone by going back to the Premier League, but that's a much bigger challenge.
I'm not sure going down to League One is relevant to the changes needed at The Valley. One or two of these are obvious and known to virtually every member of staff.
The cost in support seems to be one of the biggest concerns, let alone the other costs of relegation.
So we're talking money, as usual. If Roland does indeed sell Standard Liege, and puts a much bigger egg into our basket, maybe he would take a massive hit in terms of ticket sales to maintain numbers in the ground whilst a young team try to climb back through the league(s).
Maybe a successful, youthful, vibrant, winning league one team, with tickets at £15/£10/£5 a go is a hit Roland would be prepared to take. A great big maybe that, but not unimaginable.
Relegation need not be a total disaster providing Roland is prepared to bankroll the consequences, including effectively subsidising the support.
I wonder what difference cheaper tickets would make to the overall ticket income.
The cost in support seems to be one of the biggest concerns, let alone the other costs of relegation.
So we're talking money, as usual. If Roland does indeed sell Standard Liege, and puts a much bigger egg into our basket, maybe he would take a massive hit in terms of ticket sales to maintain numbers in the ground whilst a young team try to climb back through the league(s).
Maybe a successful, youthful, vibrant, winning league one team, with tickets at £15/£10/£5 a go is a hit Roland would be prepared to take. A great big maybe that, but not unimaginable.
Relegation need not be a total disaster providing Roland is prepared to bankroll the consequences, including effectively subsidising the support.
I wonder what difference cheaper tickets would make to the overall ticket income.
If match tickets were £15 then season tickets would have to be £299 or less. I did a piece of work on these principles previously and I think it could work in the Championship, although it's a gamble. But I doubt if you would get the buy-in for League One, because the main problem is that people don't want to watch it.
I've said for a while now our crowds are on the slide and I don't think we'll ever average over 17k in the Championship unless we went up to the Prem for a bit and came down and held on to some support like we did last time Not sure even a play off spot would increase our gates significantly until the very latter stages of the season League One will see us challenging millwall for the smallest crowds in South London
The cost in support seems to be one of the biggest concerns, let alone the other costs of relegation.
So we're talking money, as usual. If Roland does indeed sell Standard Liege, and puts a much bigger egg into our basket, maybe he would take a massive hit in terms of ticket sales to maintain numbers in the ground whilst a young team try to climb back through the league(s).
Maybe a successful, youthful, vibrant, winning league one team, with tickets at £15/£10/£5 a go is a hit Roland would be prepared to take. A great big maybe that, but not unimaginable.
Relegation need not be a total disaster providing Roland is prepared to bankroll the consequences, including effectively subsidising the support.
I wonder what difference cheaper tickets would make to the overall ticket income.
If match tickets were £15 then season tickets would have to be £299 or less. I did a piece of work on these principles previously and I think it could work in the Championship, although it's a gamble. But I doubt if you would get the buy-in for League One, because the main problem is that people don't want to watch it.
Agreed. People will come in large numbers for a one off match at £5 but won't commit to a season of League One football. Even £15 a match would only provoke the occasional visit from the skint or the non-diehards. In a couple of season's time we could be getting lower crowds than Brentford.
I like the piece and its considered tone. I think there is one statistic missing: we had 21 attempts on goal on Saturday and I sense things are turning. Obviously scoring less than a goal a game and securing less than a point a game is bad news. But this season feels different... Agreed we need the right loan signing and for them to hit the ground running. I won't repeat what I have posted elsewhere but still believe we can turn this around. I'm not in denial about the possibility of finishing in the bottom three but would rather not think about the consequences on the size of the core and floating support - just not my idea of fun!
Good article. I would suggest that the major reason for the decline over the past season or so is because of the quality of football being played - its certainly the main reason why my direct family are now selective in the games they see at The Valley.
Comments
Let's say RD's strategy is to break things down, build a better infrastructure, get us back to the prem within the next 5-10 years, then sell for a shed load more than he paid.
If this is true then he could see relegation to L1 as a minor blip to be taken in his stride - he has a buffer of £4mill which will cover a large proportion of his relegation 'loss'. Yes, it's a gamble funding the additional losses in the hope that we go back up quickly but then the whole of football at Championship level is a gamble - to keep us up this season and compete next year would still take considerable investment with no guarantee of outcome - perhaps he is just plumping for a different type of gamble. Maybe one he sees as being a better bet.
None of us, least of all you ;-), would deny that, immediately pre-takeover, any infrastructure we had was a sham so he has to build some sort of a solid base whichever path he chooses. Due diligence notwithstanding, I wouldn't mind betting he's now found it a bigger mess than he thought he was taking on.
You argue that he is also playing with the fan base's loyalty. In the short term, of course, but we are an incredibly fickle bunch and will ultimately forgive almost anything if it ends up with another spell in the promised land. We'll all be back in droves at the hint of success - after all, we've been through worse and all come back.
This appraisal may be wrong and going down to L1 scares the bejesus out of RD. But, there is a case for him not being overtly concerned about it.
Whether we'll be back in droves at the first hint of success, I doubt. We didn't recover the 2008/09 season ticket base in 2012/13 and I doubt if we'd recover the 2013//14 numbers on returning to the Championship after relegation. Ultimately the damage would only be undone by going back to the Premier League, but that's a much bigger challenge.
I'm not sure going down to League One is relevant to the changes needed at The Valley. One or two of these are obvious and known to virtually every member of staff.
The cost in support seems to be one of the biggest concerns, let alone the other costs of relegation.
So we're talking money, as usual. If Roland does indeed sell Standard Liege, and puts a much bigger egg into our basket, maybe he would take a massive hit in terms of ticket sales to maintain numbers in the ground whilst a young team try to climb back through the league(s).
Maybe a successful, youthful, vibrant, winning league one team, with tickets at £15/£10/£5 a go is a hit Roland would be prepared to take. A great big maybe that, but not unimaginable.
Relegation need not be a total disaster providing Roland is prepared to bankroll the consequences, including effectively subsidising the support.
I wonder what difference cheaper tickets would make to the overall ticket income.
Not sure even a play off spot would increase our gates significantly until the very latter stages of the season
League One will see us challenging millwall for the smallest crowds in South London
Agreed we need the right loan signing and for them to hit the ground running. I won't repeat what I have posted elsewhere but still believe we can turn this around. I'm not in denial about the possibility of finishing in the bottom three but would rather not think about the consequences on the size of the core and floating support - just not my idea of fun!
I would suggest that the major reason for the decline over the past season or so is because of the quality of football being played - its certainly the main reason why my direct family are now selective in the games they see at The Valley.