Introduction
Before the next international break The Addicks face two home games in five days. Three successive defeats have left nerves, tempers and, in the minds of the unwell, unhinged and unnamed of the interweb reputations, ripped and torn so what could be better then an easy home game v struggling Nottingham (never Notts) Forest. Oh, hang on a minute...
The Opposition
As ever Billy Davies has a championship side challenging near the top of the table. That he finds it hard to get them over the line or through the play-offs need not concern us here. His teams play with pace and skill. We only have to look back to last season when we were well beaten in both games v the Tricky Trees.
Forest sit 5th with one defeat (v Wigan) so far. They have not been destroying teams and their top scorers (Derbyshire and former Addick Andy Reid) both have only 4 goals but they are winning games regardless thanks to a resolute back line.
Watch out for Lansbury and Reid in the middle. If they are given time and space they will run the game.
The Line Up
With four key players and virtually the spine of the side out (Cort, Solly, Jackson and perhaps Kermongant) Powell will look again at the scant resources available to him in order to find some semblance of balance and resistance.
The 3-5-2 worked well with Morrison and Dervite either side of the aerially dominant Cort but less so when the big defending was missing.
Preview Towers expects to see 4 - 5 - 1 retained but with Kermongant replacing Stephens and floating between the middle four and willing runner Garry Nelson. Pritchard's concussion is a concern but we expect him to start.
Hamer
Wilson Morrison Dervite Wiggins
Pritchard Gower Cousins Stewart
Kermongant
Church
The Prediction
Having seen off the longest serving manager in the championship on Saturday Forest will be gunning to see off the longest serving manager in the Championship on Tuesday but a backs to the wall display in front of 13,025 fans will end 1 - 1
0
Comments
Will Powell go for the attacking 4-4-2 with two wingers that is being called for? Might be just what we need, not as if we can keep clean sheets anymore. But it might see us torn apart with Reid controlling the game.
They were far better than us in both games last season and we couldn't get the ball off them. 4-0 Forest and the talk about Powell's future continues. He'll keep his job, for now.
best we can hope for is a nil nil and we dont do nil
Hamer
Wilson Dervite Morro Wiggins
Pritchard Hughes Gower Cousins Harriotts
Church
1-1
Many a true word... and all that
Hamer
Wilson Morrison Wood Evina
Cousins Gower Hughes
Stewart Harriott
Kermorgant
It's the only damned thing I am looking forward to... Another horrible night in the slow death of CAFC. 0-3 by H-T and then 45 mins of vitriolic atmos from those who haven't walked out as Forest see out the game without even needing to break sweat. #sinkingfast
Would LOVE that result but, sadly, despite some raucous and emotional home support, I think we are in for a stuffing. 1-3.
Forest use a the 4-4-2 Diamond System, with a flat back four of Lichaj - Hobbs- Collins - Cohen. Moussi started at the base of the diamond, Lansbury & Reid were right and left, with Majewski at the point, behind the front two. Henderson was at Centre Forward with Mackie playing off him as the second striker. When Moussi went off injured after 20 mins, Lansbury switched to the holding role, Cohen moved to right midfield and Harding came in at Left Back.
The Forest pattern of play, was to use a quick short passing style of play through midfield into the last third, around the Reid-Majewski link, mixed up with more direct play into Henderson as the target man.
Forest produced a good overall performance and despite the unbalanced highlights on the FLS, were not particularly convincing winners or looked as good as they were against us in the two games last season. After a very good opening 10 minutes in which they had threatened to run riot, Derby settled down and contained them for long spells, without showing the cutting edge themselves to capitalise on their own good spells of play.
When Forest had possession, both full backs got forward to join in the play on their side of the pitch to link up with Majewski & Reid and Forest looked to get crosses in for Henderson to attack, particularly from the left flank through Reid. When Majewski picked up possession in space and linked up with Reid, Forest always looked dangerous. But after a lively start to the match, in which Forest had dictated a quick tempo which Derby had struggled to cope with, Derby gradually got to grips with it and closed down the Forest midfield for long spells, until the game opened up in the latter stages when they were reduced to ten men. Prior to the Keogh sending off, Majewski had been hooked after 64 mins and replaced by Abdoun, as Forest struggled to break the shackles.
In attacking play the front two will often split left and right to create space for Majewski to move into as a third attacker. When Forest get the ball wide, Henderson will pull away to the back post and make runs across defenders to meet crosses and missed an excellent chance early in the second half when running onto a Reid cross from the left. For much of the game, the front two lacked enough quality service to be effective, as Derby closed off midfield and forced Forest to go long, and a lot of build-up play broke-down around Henderson, who lost the majority of high balls against the Derby Centre Backs. As a result Mackie was forced to feed off scraps, although he ran-in behind and down the channels all afternoon, as he normally does. When forced to play long, Collins and Hobbs lacked accuracy in their passing and both lacked composure on the ball when put under pressure. However, Darlow has an excellent long kick and when allowed to come out of his area, almost reached the opposition box.
In Defensive Play, the Forest Back Four dropped off quickly to defend the 18 yard line, with the midfield quartet working back into the space in front. When doing so they often failed to get organised into two banks of four, although the central areas were often congested. Derby were allowed plenty of space 25-40 yards from goal and had a number of long range shooting opportunities. But overall, Derby lacked the speed in their play and penetration in attack, to expose a disciplined Forest defensive line.
By dropping off early to defend the eighteen yard line, Forest quickly took away the space for Derby to play into behind them. Both Centre Backs are strong in the air, but look short of pace and could struggle if isolated and turned, which Derby failed to do. Both CB's conceded free kicks when pulled forward to defend balls played into the space if front of them, although the midfielder at the base of the diamond obviously has the job of preventing that happening. Moussi did a good job of protecting the Centre Backs when he was on the pitch, but Lansbury is a more creative midfielder and therefore not suited to the role.
Lichaj at Right Back was the weakest of the Back Four, with a tendency to dive in when faced-up in one-against-one situations and had weak positional play in general. Cohen is very sound at Left Back, but looked awkward as a left-footer operating on the right of the diamond after he had switched.
In the midfield areas, the Forest quartet try to stay compact and close down quickly around the ball, often in an attempt to win possession high up the pitch. However, as they stay narrow or move across onto one flank as a group, there is always space for the opposition to exploit along the flanks in front of the exposed full back positions and as a team they are vulnerable to quick switches of play.
At Set Plays, Forest got the goal that proved decisive from a corner on the right. Reid whipped in a driven left foot cross, which Hobbs met unopposed in the near post area to head home, after his direct opponent had been caught dozing and allowed him to run free. Majewski took the corners on the right, also whipped into the near post area with pace. Mackie took a position at the near post to hamper the defenders protecting that area and create space for Hobbs to run into: Henderson and Lansbury held on the penalty spot to assist Hobbs to get free by attempting to hamper his marker; and Collins attacked from the back of the area looking for a flick-on at the near post. Henderson is also well placed in the centre of the goal to compete for any slightly over-hit crosses aimed at the near post area.
On Free Kicks from the midfield third, Reid played angled high balls at Henderson from the left and Lichaj did the same from the right.
We all know how good Reid can be and we paid the penalty last season for giving him too much space, in both games. (My memory of the game at the City Ground last season, was Reid darting here and there and Pritchard following two yards behind him as if he was on a piece of string). We need to pay attention to what he is trying to do. If you play man-for-man on him, there is a risk he will disrupt the midfield by dragging his marker away from the left and into other areas, to create space for his team-mates to exploit, particularly the left full back on the overlap.
Forest like all of the teams in this Division are beatable. Both Centre Backs and Lichaj at right back can all be exposed on the ground. But to do so, our build-up play or counter attacks need to be quick enough to get at the Back Four before the Forest midfield can cover back into the space in front. Passing across the back line will be too slow and hoofing it forward is not likely to break Forest down. We need to run them ragged down the flanks and stretch the diamond across the pitch. Most games are won and lost in central midfield, and they have four operating in that area. We need to stop them playing before we have any chance of winning this match, controlling midfield and dominating possession is vital, but do we have the players individually and collectively to do it? Looking forward to the game, to see how we set up and how we handle it.
Will get behind the team whatever happens....
I'll go for a 0-2.
Reid
Lansbury
...Wilson.......Morro.......................Wood......Wiggins...
..................................Hughes..........................
..................Stephens.................Cousins
....Harriot.......................................................Stewart...
...............................Kermorgant...........................
Assuming Kermorgant is fit and Jackson is out.
I'm backing Sir Chris Powell all the way. This is not his fault.
COYR!
Agree with this team but with Harriot on the left and Stewart on right.
Doubt it will be the team we will see so 0-4 defeat.
I remain optimistic that the same spirit is present and look forward to a well earned win.
I'll be there, not getting excited. I'm still in the Holiday Inn in Burnley at the mo.