Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

Championship Points 2013/14 - Spread Betting

For those that are interested in these things, Sporting Index have come out with their spreads for this season's point totals. For what it's worth I think QPR, Wigan, Leicester and Huddersfield are 'buys', and Brighton, Bournemouth, Doncaster and Yeovil are 'sells'. Charlton are a dangerous proposition as I think our realistic range of possible outcomes is very wide given the prospect of a takeover but in the meantime a squad that can only be described as thin:

Queens Park Rangers 74.5 - 76.5
Reading 72 - 74
Watford 72 - 74
Bolton 71.5 - 73.5
Wigan 71 - 73
Brighton 69 - 71
Nottingham Forest 68.5 - 70.5
Leicester 68.5 - 70.5
Leeds 64.5 - 66.5
Ipswich 62.5 - 64.5
Derby 62.5 - 64.5
Bournemouth 62 - 64
Blackburn 61.5 - 63.5
Charlton 59.5 - 61.5
Birmingham 58.5 - 60.5
Middlesbrough 57.5 - 59.5
Sheffield Wednesday 56.5 - 58.5
Burnley 56 - 58
Blackpool 54.5 - 56.5
Millwall 53.5 - 55.5
Huddersfield 53 - 55
Barnsley 51.5 - 53.5
Doncaster 50 - 52
Yeovil 48 - 50
«1

Comments

  • great analysis NYA .. I am seriously thinking of 'buying' some Donny Rovers
  • great analysis NYA .. I am seriously thinking of 'buying' some Donny Rovers

    That's why there is an active market I guess!

    To get 52 points they probably have to win at least 14 games, not much less than 1 in 3. I am happy to take the other side of that bet.

  • Buy - Doncaster and Huddersfield

    Sell - Bournemouth and Reading
  • Sell Watford and Bournemouth.
    Buy Blackpool
  • Sell Watford and Brighton. Sorry to say, buy millwall.
  • Have never understood this spread betting, can anyone quickly explain it?
  • Basically they are predicted points. If you 'buy' you earn more money depending on how many points over they get...say £5 per point. You will lose money at £5 a point however if they don't reach that projected point tally.

    Selling is the other way round.
  • Long Wednesday short Watford looks a decent pair trade. Plenty of skew in both prices.
  • Buy millwall
    Sell brighton
  • Shocked at high Bournemouth have been put there, and a little surprised by Middlesborough being that low.

    Buy: Doncaster and Millwall.

    Sell: Ipswich and Bournemouth.

    Too hard to predict Charlton - so probably a fair prediction there.
  • Sponsored links:


  • Basically they are predicted points. If you 'buy' you earn more money depending on how many points over they get...say £5 per point. You will lose money at £5 a point however if they don't reach that projected point tally.

    Selling is the other way round.


    Grateful, cheers mate. Do all bookies do them?, looks like a good way to win money. (I say this every year)
  • Sell Charlton buy millwall buy blackburn

    That table has us 14th value ...I wish
  • No probs. don't think high street bookies do it mate, usually on spread betting websites rather than WH or Ladbrokes.
  • I'll have a look into it mate, another way to keep interested once were storming to the title.
  • Sporting index and Spread-ex are the two main spread making bookies ... So the prices will prolly tighten up with the slightly differing prices
  • I've looked into it but with out readin all the rules and regs, how do they claim money should you owe them? do you have to have a certain amount held?
  • Buy Millwall and sell Bournemouth for me
  • I've looked into it but with out readin all the rules and regs, how do they claim money should you owe them? do you have to have a certain amount held?

    They will ask for a certain amount of margin against unrealised losses - the amount asked (I assume) is a function of your credit history, betting history, the potential further losses in your bets etc.
  • Fair play Cheers, may just stick to what I know best losing with bookies.
  • Fair play Cheers, may just stick to what I know best losing with bookies.

    Probably sensible though these long term markets are less dangerous as they are slow moving and offer plenty of opportunities to cut losses and move on. Not true of spread bets on a single match for example.
  • Sponsored links:


  • so can the board buy Charlton, then sign some top strikers, then sell Charlton again to net the position
    yep insider trading and directors banned from betting etc. but just an idea :)
    the "table" looks quite sensible to me except I really see CAFC on 68 ish points challenging Forest, Brighton, Leicester etc. for a place in top 6... so a buy for me
  • so can the board buy Charlton, then sign some top strikers, then sell Charlton again to net the position
    yep insider trading and directors banned from betting etc. but just an idea :)
    the "table" looks quite sensible to me except I really see CAFC on 68 ish points challenging Forest, Brighton, Leicester etc. for a place in top 6... so a buy for me

    I doubt if insider trading would apply in that instance (no guarantee that new players would improve the team). However any bet greater than say £1000 per point would get referred to senior management at which point suspicions would no doubt be aroused and the bet turned down!
  • Sell QPR
    Buy Nottingham Forest
  • Can't believe all the buy Millwall. Some people have no shame.
    As for the index, would be shocked if bottom clubs get to 50 points next season.
  • Buying Millwall is as unpredictable as Charlton. Yes they are buying some good players but does Lomas have what it takes???? Especially as the fans are against him as it is. Also people saying how good their signings are, am I right in saying not one of their signings played in a side that finished above us in the championship?
  • How does the liability work with the bookies? Let's say I sell Yeovil for £1. Do I have to hand over £48 to the bookies at the beginning of the season to cover the possibility that they will lose every game?
  • edited July 2013
    dabos said:

    How does the liability work with the bookies? Let's say I sell Yeovil for £1. Do I have to hand over £48 to the bookies at the beginning of the season to cover the possibility that they will lose every game?

    No definitely not (partly because with a maximum liability of £48 they would assume you were good for the liability).

    However if you had staked a larger amount then whilst you are correct that the maximum liability is 48 points multiplied by your stake, in truth this (unlikely) outcome would take place over the full course of the season. Thus after each and every lost match, you would have the ability to cash out your bet at a (small) loss as the spread gradually moves downwards and they might presume that you would indeed do so (particularly when asked to post some margin as explained below).

    However if you stuck with your guns and believed that the Glovers would bounce back and start winning some games, then they would ask you to post 'margin' equal to some % of your unrealised loss (to protect them in the event that your losses did indeed risk making you insolvent).

  • Great explanation, thanks @newyorkaddick
  • Worth noting that since the original spreads above were posted, Charlton's spread has already moved down by a half point whilst Millwall's spread has moved up by a full point.

    Given virtually all the other teams have not moved**, it's interesting that punters quickly and disproportionately looked across all the teams and assessed Charlton as being too high and Millwall as being too low. Let's hope they are wrong on both counts.

    **Doncaster also moved up one full point.
  • If you have time on your hand I would suggest looking at each teams opening 4 games and try and find the one with the 'easiest' schedule.

    Then if all goes well and they get near maximum points, the spread will go up and you can cash out nice and early for a little profit.

Sign In or Register to comment.

Roland Out Forever!