For those that are interested in these things, Sporting Index have come out with their spreads for this season's point totals. For what it's worth I think QPR, Wigan, Leicester and Huddersfield are 'buys', and Brighton, Bournemouth, Doncaster and Yeovil are 'sells'. Charlton are a dangerous proposition as I think our realistic range of possible outcomes is very wide given the prospect of a takeover but in the meantime a squad that can only be described as thin:
Queens Park Rangers 74.5 - 76.5
Reading 72 - 74
Watford 72 - 74
Bolton 71.5 - 73.5
Wigan 71 - 73
Brighton 69 - 71
Nottingham Forest 68.5 - 70.5
Leicester 68.5 - 70.5
Leeds 64.5 - 66.5
Ipswich 62.5 - 64.5
Derby 62.5 - 64.5
Bournemouth 62 - 64
Blackburn 61.5 - 63.5
Charlton 59.5 - 61.5
Birmingham 58.5 - 60.5
Middlesbrough 57.5 - 59.5
Sheffield Wednesday 56.5 - 58.5
Burnley 56 - 58
Blackpool 54.5 - 56.5
Millwall 53.5 - 55.5
Huddersfield 53 - 55
Barnsley 51.5 - 53.5
Doncaster 50 - 52
Yeovil 48 - 50
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Comments
To get 52 points they probably have to win at least 14 games, not much less than 1 in 3. I am happy to take the other side of that bet.
Sell - Bournemouth and Reading
Buy Blackpool
Selling is the other way round.
Sell brighton
Buy: Doncaster and Millwall.
Sell: Ipswich and Bournemouth.
Too hard to predict Charlton - so probably a fair prediction there.
Grateful, cheers mate. Do all bookies do them?, looks like a good way to win money. (I say this every year)
That table has us 14th value ...I wish
yep insider trading and directors banned from betting etc. but just an idea
the "table" looks quite sensible to me except I really see CAFC on 68 ish points challenging Forest, Brighton, Leicester etc. for a place in top 6... so a buy for me
Buy Nottingham Forest
As for the index, would be shocked if bottom clubs get to 50 points next season.
However if you had staked a larger amount then whilst you are correct that the maximum liability is 48 points multiplied by your stake, in truth this (unlikely) outcome would take place over the full course of the season. Thus after each and every lost match, you would have the ability to cash out your bet at a (small) loss as the spread gradually moves downwards and they might presume that you would indeed do so (particularly when asked to post some margin as explained below).
However if you stuck with your guns and believed that the Glovers would bounce back and start winning some games, then they would ask you to post 'margin' equal to some % of your unrealised loss (to protect them in the event that your losses did indeed risk making you insolvent).
Given virtually all the other teams have not moved**, it's interesting that punters quickly and disproportionately looked across all the teams and assessed Charlton as being too high and Millwall as being too low. Let's hope they are wrong on both counts.
**Doncaster also moved up one full point.
Then if all goes well and they get near maximum points, the spread will go up and you can cash out nice and early for a little profit.