We are 10th in the current form table.
Lets say we lose our remaining games against the teams 1st to 7th on current form.
We draw with those immediately around us 8th to 14th.
We beat those in poor form 15th to 20th.
How many points does that give us from our run in? 38
If you apply the same logic to Sheff United- with the same results stipulation. They get 43 points.
Fulham would get 42 points.
Wigan would get 43 points.
Man City would have 38 points.
Basically "on paper" given current form. Manchester City are still the team to catch.
Sheffield United have some winnable games aginst teams in poor form - Bolton, Watford, West Ham & Aston Villa.
Man City's run-in is much tougher.
Dark horses to watch for getting dragged into the mire. Lovable little Fulham. They won't get anything from the rest of their travels (Everton, Arsenal, Reading & Middlesborough) & at home they have to face a desperate Man City, Liverpoo, Blackburn & Portsmouth.
Bottom line for us of course is we absolutely 100% have to beat Wigan, Sheffield United, Reading - those are our winnable games. I think City away will be very tough, but maybe a sneaky win at Blackburn & a point at Everton will suffice? 40 points - safe?
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For my money, here is how I reckon we will go for the rest of the season, Wigan (h) WIN, Man City (a) DRAW, Reading (h) WIN, Everton (a) DRAW, Sheffield Utd (h) WIN, Blackburn (a) LOSS, Spurs (h) WIN, Liverpool (a) LOSS
That would get us 14 points to move to 41 points and probable, although not certain safety - if we went down with 41 points we could consider ourselves really, really unlucky.
For my money, the injury to Rob Hulse is a massive blow for Sheffield United, he is their main man for goals, especially at home so losing him is a nightmare and will almost certainly cost them crucial points in the run home.
My view is that we are being too early to pinpoint individual teams; every team in the bottom 8 is equally capable of going five without a win as they to post back to back victories.
The essential things for us to do is get ourselves up to to the 39-41 point mark, and then let everyone else worry about us. We have to get a minimum of 9 points out of 12 from our remaining home games, and pick up a victory on the road.
Our last three games have made a few people at Sheffield Utd, Man City, Wigan and Fulham rather nervous, I'm convinced that at least one of those (and maybe also us) will screw up and I don't care who it is. Next up Wigan, win that and we keep the pressure on those teams ahead of us and take advantage of whoever messes up. That's all we can do, lose and it's academic.
Keep believing!
Can anyone who has watched us play since Boro honestly say we look like a club going down? No. FACT.
Good fun though innit!!! If we'd played with this kind of form and spirit from the start of the season, we'd be calculating the points to get us a UEFA cup place...
Man City have the tougher run-in so are still the team to catch, but sheffield are definitely catchable, and two targets to overhaul is better than one, we only need one of the two to slip up, so on that basis we're twice as likely to avoid relegation ;o)
It's still going to be really tough - as BFR says, it just takes a dodgy decision which we can't afford. But all we can do is keep performing and keep believing.
Bent has scored one of the eight goals we have scored since his return from injury. I realise he gives defences more to worry about but we have for too long relied on him alone to get us goals. For us to survive and prosper this has to change.
Similarly, Reading come to our place on the Monday following a very tough home game against Liverpool on the Saturday. We get an extra days rest after the trip to City on Good Friday.
These are all the 1% factors that can tip the scales.
I agree Everton will be tough but they have no Cahill for the rest of the season and are not prolific scorers [only 38 goals in 30 games] and are 8-3-4 at home so a point is far from out of the question.
O A. the spurs game is actually 11 days before the uefa cup final. imo that could work against us as the spuds players would all be pressing to be part of jols plans for that game.