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Millwall are key!

MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
in General Charlton
Well, a win when a draw was probably the fairest result a big positive but the other results were so-so. What do we need to happen now? Well us win our final 2 for starters. Then (Home team first):

Leicester to lose to Watford next Friday
On the Saturday, Blackburn to beat Palarse, Millwall to beat Forest (sorry). Cardiff to beat Bolton

Then we need Millwall to beat Palace in the week.

Then on the final day Bolton to lose to Blackpool, Palace to lose to Peterborough, Forest and Leicester to draw. That would have us 5th so we can afford for one of these teams to do better than suggested. Can't see Bolton losing to Blackpool but the results are not impossible. If we did do it, we'd have Millwall to thank though!!


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Comments

  • nollynolly
    Blackpool can do Bolton that's a derby
  • flyingkiwiDKflyingkiwiDK
    Interesting stuff! Thanks for posting.
  • flyingkiwiDKflyingkiwiDK
    Has anyone checked bet365 after today's game to see what the odds are of us landing a playoff spot?
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    edited April 2013
    I'll take Palace out of the equation (as tempting as it is to leave them in) because they have better GD than us... Would be great to finish above them but I can't see it.

    It rides on Bolton losing away to Cardiff, then in their derby at home to Blackpool. If Forest & Leicester both lose next week too, and play out a draw afterwards, then we nick 6th spot.

    One other thing, if we beat Boro next weekend while Forest lose to Millwall, our goal difference will be better than Forest and soooooo... we could take Forest beating Leicester and pip them on goal difference. Of course, a draw would still do it in that case but just another possibility. :-) Bolton don't have much better goal difference either so could maybe accept them drawing with Blackpool if they get heavily beaten at Cardiff.
  • ISawLeaburnScoreISawLeaburnScore
    flyingkiwiDK said:

    Has anyone checked bet365 after today's game to see what the odds are of us landing a playoff spot?

    365 is 25/1
    Victor is 33/1
  • ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    Still think its best to keep your money in your pocket.
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    edited April 2013
    The goal difference to Palace is a bit of a red herring - if they lose 3 games by 1 goal, it goes down to plus 7. So we have to pull 4 goals back in our 2 wins as we are plus 3. Goals scored is currently exactly the same so we would go above them on goals scored. of course if Palace lose one of those 3 by 2 goals we have to be 3 goals up. Not so pie in the sky.
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    edited April 2013
    Basically if two of them win next weekend, our chances are completely rogered.
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    Yes, that is the glass half empty scenario.
  • ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    MuttleyCAFC said:

    Yes, that is the glass half empty scenario.

    Lol

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  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    I'm half full kinda guy, honest. :-)
  • LuckyRedsLuckyReds
    edited April 2013
    We know you wont believe us.. We know you wont beliiieeeve usssss...
    The Reds are Going up?








    In a season or two. ;)
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    If we did fluke a play off place on a record low of 67 points- who would bet against us?
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    I'd enjoy dumping Udinese reserves out of the picture.
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    A couple of things make this unlikely scenario feel like it could happen - firstly 6 goals last week - wouldn't be possible without those and needing Millwall to help us.
  • Athletico CharltonAthletico Charlton
    Interesting analysis.
    Shame we never beat Boro....
    0-0 is my guess.
    Plus the results above from our competitors will not happen either.
    Roll on the kids v Brizzle.
  • dizzeedizzee
    Na na na na na na na na na na na, muttley give it up, give it up, muttley give it uuuup.
  • CrayAddickCrayAddick
    Can we change the title. Sparrows lion might get a woody...
  • _MrDick_MrDick
    Just think, if we hadn't conceded those last minute goals against Birmingham...
  • creepyaddickcreepyaddick
    edited April 2013
    MuttleyCAFC said:

    The goal difference to Palace is a bit of a red herring - if they lose 3 games by 1 goal, it goes down to plus 7. So we have to pull 4 goals back in our 2 wins as we are plus 3. Goals scored is currently exactly the same so we would go above them on goals scored. of course if Palace lose one of those 3 by 2 goals we have to be 3 goals up. Not so pie in the sky.

    I thought Palace had scored 10 more than us

    Also what are Millwall chances of winning all their 4 games and Bolton Leicester Forest and us losing our last 2, will they get a playoff spot from 17th place? They have 3 home games then away to Derby last one

    Edit. Just noticed would have to be a Forest Leicester draw, so both them and us want a draw from that game
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  • creepyaddickcreepyaddick
    I can also see Watford going up auto as Hull have two tough games left, Barnsley away and Cardiff at home
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    edited April 2013
    If Millwall won all their games, they could get the same points as us if we won our last two. But where as we are on plus 3 GD, they are on minus 8 so they would have a gap to close! If we win our last 2 we will be on plus 5 at least. If Millwall win every game 3-0 they will be short!

    As for giving it up - well I do admit there is much more chance of it not happening but the point is, the results needed are feasible! The real test on whether you believe it is possible deep down would be if you are pleased if Millwall score against Forest. How can you ever be pleased if that happens unless you believe it can help us.
  • seriously_redseriously_red
    creepyaddick said:

    I can also see Watford going up auto as Hull have two tough games left, Barnsley away and Cardiff at home

    I can see Hull going up and Barnsley going down ... Hull are good and only need 3 points to secure automatic promotion

  • maybe_babymaybe_baby
    There is definitely too much drug taking on CL.
  • ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    And we wonder why they call us anoraks ;0)
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    ShootersHillGuru said:

    And we wonder why they call us anoraks ;0)

    I'll get my coat!

  • Off_itOff_it
    MuttleyCAFC said:

    ShootersHillGuru said:

    And we wonder why they call us anoraks ;0)

    I'll get my coat!

    Is it covered in badges?
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    yes trainspotting ones! Still think it isn't too bad with two matches to go to have a look at what's what and what is required!
  • PL54PL54
    I think it unlikely we will make the play offs so we need Palace and Millwall to both have last day disappointment.

    Palace to miss the play offs and Millwall to go down please.
  • CafcWestCafcWest
    Blackburn to beat Palace...? Don't think so...
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