It occurred to me that everyone is frantically trying to work out what everyone needs to get safe from relegation, so I've decided to make a new E# sheet.
It's not very scientific, so forgive the flaws, but I know some of you enjoyed it last year, so here's the first one.
Comments and suggestions gratefully received, I'll try to update it promptly!
(By the way, if you've not seen it before, "E#" is a device commonly used when displaying Major League Baseball tables to indicate:
a) how far from elimination a side is and
b) when a side is eliminated from winning their division.
In the version attached, I've flipped it so it represents how many wins a team needs to be safe from relegation. A draw is, perhaps obviously, one third of a win)
EDIT: noticed a couple of errors. Corrected version posted further down, cheers
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But, the way it works is that, as Charltons E# is 5, this means that if the combined number of
1) Charlton Wins and
2) Defeats for the 'benchmark' team (the team with the third worst record (usually, but not necessarily in 22nd place))
Equals 5, the that team can no longer catch Charlton.
Eg.
At the moment, the benchmark team is Huddersfield. If we win 2 and Huddersfield lose 3, they can no longer catch us. Other teams may move into the benchmark position as the season progresses.
Draws are where the fractions come in. If we draw, that's another one third of a win towards our E#. If Another team draw, they've dropped two thirds of a win, so could reduce our E# by two thirds, depending on how everyone else gets on.
Eg, if we win 1 and draw 1 and Huddersfield lose 3 and draw 1, they can no longer catch us.
We're safe once our E# reaches zero.
Hope that helps.
:-)
A quick explanation of the 'Benchmark' team:
This is the team who is 22nd in potential points. At the moment that's Huddersfield because with 6 games left they can only get 18 more points and hence reach 65.
However, as the bottom 3 have to overhaul 3 other teams, their benchmark team is the team in 21st place for potential points - at the moment this is Wolves who have potential points of 66. (This is the tweak I need to make.)
With 6/7 games to go, only 3 teams are currently mathematically 'safe' from relegation. Bonkers league!
Obviously it shows each team's maximum chances of survival - but with many of the most threatened teams still having to play each other, it's impossible for every team to get their maximum points.
Good fun, though - and an excellent device for Doomsters and the more nervous to bite their fingernails!
I'd pay good money to see a simpleton like @plaaaayer or @nthlondonaddick trying to work it out before quickly returning to their colouring books
Oggy, you're right of course about not everyone being able to get maximum points.
Indeed, Crystal Palace are, in fact, mathematically safe as Wolves are yet to play Huddersfield. This means only one of these can catch Palace while already neither Peterborough or Bristol City can.
However, taking all these sorts of details into account would be too complicated and time consuming and, well, I can't really be arsed.
:-)
It's a good bit of fun, but I'm afraid you've spoilt it by declaring Palace are already safe.
I hadn't spotted that.
;o)
I see peterborough and Bristol City need to win more games than they have left to achieve safety, so we can definitely say it is not in their own hands !!!
Apologies for the delay - I've been out celebrating for the weekend.
:-)
Headlines:
1) Those teams that won this weekend have seen their E# change quite dramatically due to the results of Huddersfield and Wolves.
2) Crystal Palace are now officially E# safe
3) Forest are actually safe, but not E# safe
None of them affected us, but there are some changes for the teams involved, obviously.
Very good week for Piggy.
:-)
By the way, as some have mentioned it, I've made a second table to show the E# for reaching the playoffs.
Sorry, I didn't think of this earlier as we've only a couple of weeks to go now.
Maybe I'll do it earlier next year!
Cheers.