A couple of weeks ago someone posted a predictor table which I understood to be statistically based. Can anyone point me to it, so I can follow it, assuming it is updated after every game?
I'm pretty sure it had the 3rd bottom team on 50 points or less. It had us on 64 which I think is fantasy. If I had to make a guess I would expect us to finish on 58 points leaving us roughly where we are now. And I'd call that decent season's work by SCP.
This division this season makes no sense, we all know that. The only thing that will make any sense this season is mathematics. I'll hold my nose here and quote Danny Mills; 'it's not how, it's how many'.
Oh Ye of little faith - we've got players who've got spirit and a good team ethic. You might be sh*tting yourselves - but no way is this team going to limply surrender, after battling to win that title last season!
No point worrying about the other 14 teams - CP will just focus on our games, one at a time.
Anyway, all these other teams must still play each other - so they can't all get max points, can they?
PA, you want to have a look at this site. It is all explained, but it runs simulations to make percentage predictions. The current status is before the Bolton game but it also takes into account the simulations of the other trams and gives percentage probabilities of relegation (and promotion) based on every possible set of results.
Oh Ye of little faith - we've got players who've got spirit and a good team ethic. You might be sh*tting yourselves - but no way is this team going to limply surrender, after battling to win that title last season!
No point worrying about the other 14 teams - CP will just focus on our games, one at a time.
Anyway, all these other teams must still play each other - so they can't all get max points, can they?
It's not a question of us surrendering, it's more a realisation that this league is uniquely close. That form predicted total of 58 points, which in any other season would be a comfortable mid table finish, would leave us 3 points above the drop zone!
Was nosing round soccerbase this evening, mildly anxious. We know this season is mental, but just how mental is illustrated by how many points you needed to be safe in past seasons. This one is going to beat all of them by a massive margin.
Saturday proved that we have too much fight and too much desire to go down. This is where having CP as manager will be a big advantage over the other clubs in danger of the drop. He generally always has the players and the fans right behind him.
just thank god we won on sat ! We just have to make sure we don't lose to Wolves & Barnsley and beat Bristol City on the last day (by then they will be down). I can't see us getting much out of any of our away games and we don;t have a great record against Leeds.
We have one of the best away records in the division, am confident we will get at least three points out of Brighton, Barnsley or Cardiff
I recall a few seasons back when Leicester were relegated with 52 points and everyone was incredulous but I can easily envisage that one team with 55-56 points could drop this season. After last night I am thinking 3 more wins (or the equivalent) is what is really needed.
Saturday proved that we have too much fight and too much desire to go down. This is where having CP as manager will be a big advantage over the other clubs in danger of the drop. He generally always has the players and the fans right behind him.
Most of the teams at the bottom also have fight and desire, hence the league closing up. It's teams like Boro and Blackburn who are on the slide, Blackburn look very poor at the moment. By contrast Wolves are on a really good run, Barnsley have been transformed since Flitcroft took over, Posh keep getting vital wins, and other teams keep geting unexpected wins (e.g. Blackpool and Brum both beating Palace)
I recall a few seasons back when Leicester were relegated with 52 points and everyone was incredulous but I can easily envisage that one team with 55-56 points could drop this season. After last night I am thinking 3 more wins (or the equivalent) is what is really needed.
3 wins! That's 59 points. I don't believe it's possible that 55 or above can go down, not even in this freak season.
Sorry no its not. But it did have this full graphic look about it. Somebody posted it a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately I can't remember which thread, might have been in a postmatch view thread.
Was nosing round soccerbase this evening, mildly anxious. We know this season is mental, but just how mental is illustrated by how many points you needed to be safe in past seasons. This one is going to beat all of them by a massive margin.
Did you take the points deductions into account for going to admin etc.... This is because no one as yet has been docked points in our league. It's a fairer reflection to measure it without points deductions but these stats do show how crazy it all is.
Just done this and tried to be as honest as possible. Got us staying up on last day of season!
Middlesboro & Leeds on 58 Burnley, Sheff Wed & Huddersfield on 57 Blackburn, Wolves, Charlton, Millwall & Ipswich on 56 Blackpool 55 Barnsley 54 Peterboro 47 Bristol City 45
I did that, and we ended up in 12th on 59 points! My bottom was 3 was Hudders 52 Blackburn 50 Bristol 44 with Peterborough pipping Hudersfield on goal difference...I think they'll take points off the top teams
That would mean we'd be 7 points clear of relegation which sounds too good to be true! Wins against Leeds and Bristol, draws against Barnsley, Boro and Wolves
What people tend to forget, is a lot of teams below us, will be playing each other, Huddersfield have Wolves, Peterborough, Barnsley, Blackburn and Bristol City on the run in
Well MLC you may not think so but look at the table Huddersfield are on 47 points already so that's only 7 points from their last seven games that's one point a game to get to 55 I don't think that is impossible by a long way. So for my prediction on three more wins that was the number I had in mind for absolute safety but it could be 57 or 58. That said I cannot recall a league like this one ever!
Comments
I'm pretty sure it had the 3rd bottom team on 50 points or less. It had us on 64 which I think is fantasy. If I had to make a guess I would expect us to finish on 58 points leaving us roughly where we are now. And I'd call that decent season's work by SCP.
There you go season form ends us with 58 points
I'll hold my nose here and quote Danny Mills; 'it's not how, it's how many'.
You might be sh*tting yourselves - but no way is this team going to limply surrender, after battling to win that title last season!
No point worrying about the other 14 teams - CP will just focus on our games, one at a time.
Anyway, all these other teams must still play each other - so they can't all get max points, can they?
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Charlton.html
11/12. 41
10/11. 43
09/10. 48
08/09. 47
07/08. 53
06/07. 43
05/06. 43
04/05. 50
03/04. 51
02/03. 47
01/02. 49
00/01. 49
99/00. 47
98/99. 47
97/98. 49
96/97. 47
95/96. 52
94/95. 49
93/94. 52
92/93. 50
Thanks guys, but it wasn't either of those. It had a style format that looked similar to the table from the BBC website, but is not from the BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm
I don't believe it's possible that 55 or above can go down, not even in this freak season.
Middlesboro & Leeds on 58
Burnley, Sheff Wed & Huddersfield on 57
Blackburn, Wolves, Charlton, Millwall & Ipswich on 56
Blackpool 55
Barnsley 54
Peterboro 47
Bristol City 45
We need a couple of wins and a point here and there at most from seven games (and avoid getting thrashed in any of them). Should be achievable.
My bottom was 3 was
Hudders 52
Blackburn 50
Bristol 44
with Peterborough pipping Hudersfield on goal difference...I think they'll take points off the top teams
That would mean we'd be 7 points clear of relegation which sounds too good to be true! Wins against Leeds and Bristol, draws against Barnsley, Boro and Wolves