People were saying that Watford was a must win. It wasn't. If we lose against Citeh it won't mean we're down. We've got 9 games left. Thats a possible 27 points from which we need to get 14-16. Let's not pile too much pressure on one particular game.
[cite]Posted By: Salad Spinner[/cite]The next three games probably determine our destiny.
The Man City game is so big - we've dispensed with West ham and we need to do the same with City.
Wigan and City were always bigger than West Ham & Watford for me. In the last two weeks we've gained four points on City. By the time we play 'em I reckon we'll have the chance to go above them if we win. However, if that's the case a draw would still be ok. A defeat would be curtains.
[quote][cite]Posted By: LargeAddick[/cite][quote][cite]Posted By: Salad Spinner[/cite]The next three games probably determine our destiny.
The Man City game is so big - we've dispensed with West ham and we need to do the same with City.[/quote]
Wigan and City were always bigger than West Ham & Watford for me. In the last two weeks we've gained four points on City. By the time we play 'em I reckon we'll have the chance to go above them if we win. However, if that's the case a draw would still be ok. A defeat would be curtains.[/quote]
West Ham, Watford, Wigan and Man City are the big four games. So far four from a possible six points.
Wigan is a must win or at the very least we must pick up more points than either Man city and Sheff Utd.
I'm not looking beyond the next must-win game and that's aginst Newcastle United. I'm not bothered who City or Wigan or Sheff Utd have to play. Our destiny is in our own hands. If we win our games...we stay up. Simple as!
i think its more city's destiny to be sent down by man utd...we've got the players and they look like they believe in themselves again...we are just going to do our own thing between now and the end of the season and set out to win as many games as possible...as i see it, the pressure's on everybody else now, not us...
Let's remember that when we go to Anfield on the last day of the season, coz worst comes to the worst we may be down by then, but there's very little chance we'll already be safe. Some finale that could be!
[cite]Posted By: bingaddick[/cite]People were saying that Watford was a must win. It wasn't. If we lose against Citeh it won't mean we're down. We've got 9 games left. Thats a possible 27 points from which we need to get 14-16. Let's not pile too much pressure on one particular game.
I don't see how 14-16 points is enough necessarily. That means we'd finish with 38 - 40 points. I know Man City look bad at the moment and they have some tough games but will they get less than 8-10 points from 33?
[cite]Posted By: bingaddick[/cite]People were saying that Watford was a must win. It wasn't. If we lose against Citeh it won't mean we're down. We've got 9 games left. Thats a possible 27 points from which we need to get 14-16. Let's not pile too much pressure on one particular game.
I don't see how 14-16 points is enough necessarily. That means we'd finish with 38 - 40 points. I know Man City look bad at the moment and they have some tough games but will they get less than 8-10 points from 33?
I thought 38 a few weeks ago but I'm not so sure now. Man City could quite easily get 9 or 10 I think. So we may need 41. Teams have been relegated with more.
I'm more concerned that we won't even get 38 since we dropped two of the points I was expecting. People are forgetting that 14 points from 9 games is alot for a team with our record even if we are improving.
I think we win all our home games (15 Points) and pick up a point at Everton and City. So another 17 points to take us to 41. I think that will be enough. Citys extra two games are against chelsea home and arsenal away. Wigan just lost eight in a row, i can see city doing the same.
[quote][cite]Posted By: CanadaAddick[/cite]I think we win all our home games (15 Points) and pick up a point at Everton and City. So another 17 points to take us to 41. I think that will be enough. Citys extra two games are against chelsea home and arsenal away. Wigan just lost eight in a row, i can see city doing the same.[/quote]
Winning all five is going to be tough, Wigan for one will come to defend and will be more than happy with a point.
Newcastle and Reading won't be easy matches and both they and Spurs are pushing for a UEFA place, that leaves Sheff Utd who might be in trouble and they may opt for playing for a draw. The good news is that these games are winnable but none of them look home bankers to me.
In fact I think we will have garnered the necessary points when we beat Sheff Utd - we will have 41+ points then. Which will prove enough, even if not mathematically saf for another weekend or two.
[cite]Posted By: jimmymelrose[/cite]. I know Man City look bad at the moment and they have some tough games but will they get less than 8-10 points from 33?
Well, if they don't - it's relegation form.
At the beginning of the season, we only managed 3 points from 33, or thereabouts. That's relegation form - which is one of the reasons we are in the drop zone now.
Man City are a team struggling, with a losing mindset and low on confidence - and presently not getting results. And no team at the bottom would rather have City's run in.
Nobody yet knows how many points represent safety.
But to be safe ourselves, we need just one more point than the team that finishes 18th.
Portsmouth can still be relegated on 41 points if all the wrong (from their point of view) results happen. No one with less than 42 points is safe and it is concievable that 42 points will not be enough.
[cite]Posted By: pickwick[/cite]Portsmouth can still be relegated on 41 points if all the wrong (from their point of view) results happen. No one with less than 42 points is safe and it is concievable that 42 points will not be enough.
think we're getting carried away with our point scoring potential.
Our best bet is that its a low total needed to stay up, anything past 38 and i think we are gone personally.
Another way of looking at this is as follows. Let's say the rebirth began at Portsmouth (incidentally the same day I got married). If you discount Man U & Chelsea (because they're from another league) then we've got 2 points on average per game. Discount Liverpool too (who belong to the same league as Man U & Chelsea) and you've got eight games left. 8 x 2 points = 16.
24 + 16 = 40. Could be Ok.
I'm not sure we will get 2 points a game however. I still reckon we'll finish with between 36 & 38 points because I can see something going wrong against Reading and / or Spurs and / or Man City.
Original way of looking into the crystal ball, Jimmy.
Of course, working with averages probably wouldn't reflect in indvidual results but obviously can give an idea of the big picture.
I shouldn't worry too much about things going wrong. If the team have the right attitude and play well enough, then they should pull in enough points on average.
Even if things go wrong in a match or two, we could pick up unexpected points elsewhere.
Not many expected us to get anything from the Pompey and Bolton games - so no reason why - if we play well enough - we shouldn't pick up a couple of good surprise results.
Fulham game minus 2 points(bad ref detail) = 1 point short or 18th? If's buts and maybes let's wait and be patient Now let me see....When the red red robin.....
We have looked at the City run-in on another thread and, in short, not only do they have a very tough run-in but they are just not scoring goals either at the moment, which is not a problem you want to have at this stage. Vassell is crocked, Corradi and Samaras well short of confidence and Mpenza unproven at this level so they are going to find it very hard scoring the goals they need over the coming weeks. Moreover, their fans do get very edgy when they don't score early and they put the players under a lot of pressure when they go a goal down so in the coming weeks they won't make life much easier for the players.
Comments
Wigan and City were always bigger than West Ham & Watford for me. In the last two weeks we've gained four points on City. By the time we play 'em I reckon we'll have the chance to go above them if we win. However, if that's the case a draw would still be ok. A defeat would be curtains.
The Man City game is so big - we've dispensed with West ham and we need to do the same with City.[/quote]
Wigan and City were always bigger than West Ham & Watford for me. In the last two weeks we've gained four points on City. By the time we play 'em I reckon we'll have the chance to go above them if we win. However, if that's the case a draw would still be ok. A defeat would be curtains.[/quote]
West Ham, Watford, Wigan and Man City are the big four games. So far four from a possible six points.
Wigan is a must win or at the very least we must pick up more points than either Man city and Sheff Utd.
Don't worry about the others, they've still got to play each other.
For example, Sheff Utd v Wigan, they can't both win.
Just one game at a time.....and we can put the 3 points on the board.
Simple really.........gulp! ;-)
Mc Moist - It couldn't have been said better!
I don't see how 14-16 points is enough necessarily. That means we'd finish with 38 - 40 points. I know Man City look bad at the moment and they have some tough games but will they get less than 8-10 points from 33?
Not exactly true.
Pards thinks 38
I actually think 40
What do you think will be enough then?
I'm more concerned that we won't even get 38 since we dropped two of the points I was expecting. People are forgetting that 14 points from 9 games is alot for a team with our record even if we are improving.
Winning all five is going to be tough, Wigan for one will come to defend and will be more than happy with a point.
Newcastle and Reading won't be easy matches and both they and Spurs are pushing for a UEFA place, that leaves Sheff Utd who might be in trouble and they may opt for playing for a draw. The good news is that these games are winnable but none of them look home bankers to me.
Well, if they don't - it's relegation form.
At the beginning of the season, we only managed 3 points from 33, or thereabouts. That's relegation form - which is one of the reasons we are in the drop zone now.
Man City are a team struggling, with a losing mindset and low on confidence - and presently not getting results. And no team at the bottom would rather have City's run in.
Nobody yet knows how many points represent safety.
But to be safe ourselves, we need just one more point than the team that finishes 18th.
think we're getting carried away with our point scoring potential.
Our best bet is that its a low total needed to stay up, anything past 38 and i think we are gone personally.
Keep the faith........!
24 + 16 = 40. Could be Ok.
I'm not sure we will get 2 points a game however. I still reckon we'll finish with between 36 & 38 points because I can see something going wrong against Reading and / or Spurs and / or Man City.
Of course, working with averages probably wouldn't reflect in indvidual results but obviously can give an idea of the big picture.
I shouldn't worry too much about things going wrong. If the team have the right attitude and play well enough, then they should pull in enough points on average.
Even if things go wrong in a match or two, we could pick up unexpected points elsewhere.
Not many expected us to get anything from the Pompey and Bolton games - so no reason why - if we play well enough - we shouldn't pick up a couple of good surprise results.
If's buts and maybes
let's wait and be patient
Now let me see....When the red red robin.....
Vassell is crocked, Corradi and Samaras well short of confidence and Mpenza unproven at this level so they are going to find it very hard scoring the goals they need over the coming weeks.
Moreover, their fans do get very edgy when they don't score early and they put the players under a lot of pressure when they go a goal down so in the coming weeks they won't make life much easier for the players.